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Expires:201809262000;;226112
FPUS51 KBTV 260727
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018


VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
324 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.TODAY...A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
this morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall this afternoon. Much warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then
partly cloudy after midnight. Less humid with lows in the upper 40s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Southeast
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201809261100;;233995
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    68  63  84 S18G29    29.86F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  61  61 100 CALM      29.98F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    59  59 100 CALM      29.91F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     61  61 100 MISG      29.93F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    60  59  97 SE6       29.97S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      65  64  95 S3        29.93R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    64  63  96 SE3       29.96F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    55  55 100 SE3       30.01F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    67  64  93 S8G16     29.83F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      60  60 100 S7        29.90F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    71  65  81 E5        29.98F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     59 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A SW24G44     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  63  88 S17G26      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  63  94 S22         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  64 100 S23         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;229379
FXUS61 KBTV 260833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
433 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with strong to
locally severe storms possible this afternoon. The primary
threat will be isolated to scattered damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts, along with torrential downpours and frequent cloud to
ground lightning. Cooler and drier weather returns for Thursday
into Friday. A chance of scattered showers with near normal
temperatures are anticipated this upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong to severe thunderstorms 
expected this aftn with primary threat isolated to scattered 
damaging winds possible.

Water vapor shows progressive southwest flow aloft with several
embedded short waves over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great
Lakes, along with pockets of enhanced mid level moisture. This
energy and moisture will continue to produce scattered showers
with embedded rumbles of thunder mainly over northern NY into
the cpv thru this morning. Meanwhile, mid/upper lvl trof and
potent 5h energy with strong sfc cold front over the western
Great Lakes will approach the SLV by 18z today. 

The combination of potent dynamics...very strong mid level winds 
of 60 to 80 knots, and some sfc based instability along 
boundary will produce a line of strong to severe thunderstorms 
btwn 18z-22z this aftn. Still some question on amount of clearly
and associated destabilization as area soundings show plenty of
moisture and moist adiabatic mid level lapse rates, which will 
impact updraft potential. Latest HRRR, RAP, NAM3 and local BTV 
4KM continues to show sfc based cape values of 1000 j/kg 
developing in the CPV, central VT, and parts of the CT River 
Valley btwn 18z-21z this aftn, as strong convergence with cold 
front approaches. This progged instability combined with 0 to 6 
km shear of 50 to 60 knots will help organize into a linear line
with several bowing line segments as complex moves into the cpv
and thru most of VT. 

Soundings show very strong 925mb to 850mb low level jet 
associated with convection of 45 to 55 knots, so it won't take 
much to mix these stronger winds toward the sfc, especially in 
the more robust updrafts. Very impressive/large curved 0 to 3 km
hodographs, with sfc to 3 km helicity values of 300 to 400, 
supports potential for mini-supercells with rotation, however 
limited factor for vertical growth will be instability. Given 
the best cape/shear interaction occurs mainly across VT, 
thinking this will be the main focus for severe potential this 
aftn, however SPC continues to outline entire cwa in slight 
risk. Expect showers with embedded storms to develop btwn 17z-
19z across the western dacks and move into the cpv btwn 20z-22z,
and quickly exit our eastern cwa by 00z this evening. 

In addition to damaging wind potential, convection this aftn 
will have the potential to produce torrential downpours with 
rainfall rates of 1 to 1.50 per hour. Soundings show pws 
approaching 2.0", warm cloud depths of 3-4km, and favorable 
alignment of low level jet, along with strong short wave forcing
to produce locally heavy rainfall. Basin average qpf will range
from 0.50 to 1.0 inches with isolated higher amounts, given 
quick movement of convection, not anticipating any major hydro 
related issues. 

Temps mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s this aftn with dwpt 
values climbing into the mid/upper 60s before fropa. A sharp 10 
to 15 degree drop in temp/dwpt will occur associated with fropa 
this aftn/evening, especially cpv and points east.

Tonight into Thursday...1020mb high pres from Ohio Valley builds
into our cwa with clearing skies and moderate low level cold air
advection. Anticipate a period of breezy northwest winds of 10
to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this evening behind boundary,
before winds quickly weaken aft 06z. Clouds will dissipate with
deep dry layer developing with lows mainly in the upper 30s to
lower 50s overnight. Thursday will feature mostly sunny skies
with temps mid 50s to mid 60s depending upon elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 433 AM EDT Wednesday...Our area will be in a fast SW flow aloft
on the east side of a large upper level trof over the central US
during the short term period. An associated flat short wave embedded
in the SW flow and associated surface wave will move along the front
from the mid-Atlantic south of new England on Friday and zip quickly
out to sea by afternoon. High clouds associated with this system
will increase Thursday night into Friday morning and there is a low
chance of showers across far southeast VT. By Friday afternoon
clouds will be clearing out. Low temps will range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s and highs on Friday in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 433 AM EDT Wednesday...The pattern will be quite changeable in
the long term period as the upper level trof over the central US
breaks down and our flow becomes more westerly aloft.

Another short wave will move through the region late Friday night
into Saturday morning. The ECMWF and FV3 are a bit stronger with
this and at the surface another distinct cold frontal passage and
strong cold advection takes place accompanied with showers while the
GFS and NAM are faster, weaker, and drier with just steady weaker
cold advection and perhaps a sprinkle. Larger spreads in GEFS
MSLP/500mb heights helps confirm the uncertainty with the system.
For now a compromise brings a chance of showers Friday night into
Saturday morning with perhaps some NW flow upslope showers lingering
behind the front but things should dry out and gradually cool off on
Saturday.

High pressure will move over the region by Sunday for a crisp cool
late September day with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s to
around 60 with lighter winds.

Eventually by Monday upper level ridging bridges across the southern
US forcing the upper level trof to retreat northward into Canada and
our flow aloft becomes more westerly or even northwesterly as the
ridge builds northward and high pressure builds in at the surface.
The model spread increases Monday and Tuesday with the clash of the
cool airmass across the northeast and warming airmass over the
southeast US. Moisture begins to rotate around the upper level high
pressure centered over the southeast and a warm front will make a
run at us sometime late Monday into Tuesday with an increasing
chance of showers. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly
in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Challenging next 6 to 18 hour aviation
forecast with low cigs this morning followed by chances for
convection with gusty winds today. Crnt obs shows a mix of ifr
at mpv to mvfr at rut/slk/btv/mss and vfr at pbg. Thinking ifr
prevail thru 12z at mpv and develops in the next 1 to 2 hours at
slk. Otherwise...a brief period of ifr cigs are possible at btv
with breezy south winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots.
A cluster of showers with embedded storms will impact mss btwn
06-08z this morning with brief heavy rainfall and isolated
lightning and the potential for mvfr cigs/vis with pocket of ifr
vis possible. Expecting a line of showers and storms to move
from west to east across our taf sites btwn 18z-22z today. The
primary threat will be localized gusty winds up to 40 knots in
the stronger elements, along with rapidly shifting sfc winds, 
creating areas of low level turbulence and shear in and around 
thunderstorms. A brief period of ifr vis/cig is possible in any 
of the heavier convection. Winds shift to the northwest by 
evening with drier air developing and improving cigs. 


Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
The Lake Wind Advisory continues today for south winds 15 to 25
knots and waves 2 to 5 feet. Expect winds to slacken this
afternoon, before increasing again this evening and shifting to
the northwest at 20 to 30 knots through midnight. These winds
will quickly decrease below advisory level after midnight 
tonight and remain light on Thursday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Taber

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