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Expires:201809262000;;226112 FPUS51 KBTV 260727 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 324 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 VTZ006-262000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 324 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 .TODAY...A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Much warmer with highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight. Less humid with lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. $$ Expires:201809261100;;233995 ASUS41 KBTV 261030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-261100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 68 63 84 S18G29 29.86F MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 61 61 100 CALM 29.98F MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 59 59 100 CALM 29.91F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 61 61 100 MISG 29.93F LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 60 59 97 SE6 29.97S FOG MIDDLEBURY* RAIN 65 64 95 S3 29.93R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 64 63 96 SE3 29.96F SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 55 55 100 SE3 30.01F FOG HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 67 64 93 S8G16 29.83F NEWPORT* FAIR 60 60 100 S7 29.90F BENNINGTON CLOUDY 71 65 81 E5 29.98F ISLAND POND* N/A 59 N/A N/A W1 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 61 N/A N/A W1 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A SW24G44 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 63 88 S17G26 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 64 63 94 S22 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 64 100 S23 N/A $$ Expires:No;;229379 FXUS61 KBTV 260833 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 433 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with strong to locally severe storms possible this afternoon. The primary threat will be isolated to scattered damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, along with torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Cooler and drier weather returns for Thursday into Friday. A chance of scattered showers with near normal temperatures are anticipated this upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 339 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this aftn with primary threat isolated to scattered damaging winds possible. Water vapor shows progressive southwest flow aloft with several embedded short waves over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes, along with pockets of enhanced mid level moisture. This energy and moisture will continue to produce scattered showers with embedded rumbles of thunder mainly over northern NY into the cpv thru this morning. Meanwhile, mid/upper lvl trof and potent 5h energy with strong sfc cold front over the western Great Lakes will approach the SLV by 18z today. The combination of potent dynamics...very strong mid level winds of 60 to 80 knots, and some sfc based instability along boundary will produce a line of strong to severe thunderstorms btwn 18z-22z this aftn. Still some question on amount of clearly and associated destabilization as area soundings show plenty of moisture and moist adiabatic mid level lapse rates, which will impact updraft potential. Latest HRRR, RAP, NAM3 and local BTV 4KM continues to show sfc based cape values of 1000 j/kg developing in the CPV, central VT, and parts of the CT River Valley btwn 18z-21z this aftn, as strong convergence with cold front approaches. This progged instability combined with 0 to 6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots will help organize into a linear line with several bowing line segments as complex moves into the cpv and thru most of VT. Soundings show very strong 925mb to 850mb low level jet associated with convection of 45 to 55 knots, so it won't take much to mix these stronger winds toward the sfc, especially in the more robust updrafts. Very impressive/large curved 0 to 3 km hodographs, with sfc to 3 km helicity values of 300 to 400, supports potential for mini-supercells with rotation, however limited factor for vertical growth will be instability. Given the best cape/shear interaction occurs mainly across VT, thinking this will be the main focus for severe potential this aftn, however SPC continues to outline entire cwa in slight risk. Expect showers with embedded storms to develop btwn 17z- 19z across the western dacks and move into the cpv btwn 20z-22z, and quickly exit our eastern cwa by 00z this evening. In addition to damaging wind potential, convection this aftn will have the potential to produce torrential downpours with rainfall rates of 1 to 1.50 per hour. Soundings show pws approaching 2.0", warm cloud depths of 3-4km, and favorable alignment of low level jet, along with strong short wave forcing to produce locally heavy rainfall. Basin average qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.0 inches with isolated higher amounts, given quick movement of convection, not anticipating any major hydro related issues. Temps mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s this aftn with dwpt values climbing into the mid/upper 60s before fropa. A sharp 10 to 15 degree drop in temp/dwpt will occur associated with fropa this aftn/evening, especially cpv and points east. Tonight into Thursday...1020mb high pres from Ohio Valley builds into our cwa with clearing skies and moderate low level cold air advection. Anticipate a period of breezy northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this evening behind boundary, before winds quickly weaken aft 06z. Clouds will dissipate with deep dry layer developing with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 50s overnight. Thursday will feature mostly sunny skies with temps mid 50s to mid 60s depending upon elevation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 433 AM EDT Wednesday...Our area will be in a fast SW flow aloft on the east side of a large upper level trof over the central US during the short term period. An associated flat short wave embedded in the SW flow and associated surface wave will move along the front from the mid-Atlantic south of new England on Friday and zip quickly out to sea by afternoon. High clouds associated with this system will increase Thursday night into Friday morning and there is a low chance of showers across far southeast VT. By Friday afternoon clouds will be clearing out. Low temps will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s and highs on Friday in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 433 AM EDT Wednesday...The pattern will be quite changeable in the long term period as the upper level trof over the central US breaks down and our flow becomes more westerly aloft. Another short wave will move through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF and FV3 are a bit stronger with this and at the surface another distinct cold frontal passage and strong cold advection takes place accompanied with showers while the GFS and NAM are faster, weaker, and drier with just steady weaker cold advection and perhaps a sprinkle. Larger spreads in GEFS MSLP/500mb heights helps confirm the uncertainty with the system. For now a compromise brings a chance of showers Friday night into Saturday morning with perhaps some NW flow upslope showers lingering behind the front but things should dry out and gradually cool off on Saturday. High pressure will move over the region by Sunday for a crisp cool late September day with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s to around 60 with lighter winds. Eventually by Monday upper level ridging bridges across the southern US forcing the upper level trof to retreat northward into Canada and our flow aloft becomes more westerly or even northwesterly as the ridge builds northward and high pressure builds in at the surface. The model spread increases Monday and Tuesday with the clash of the cool airmass across the northeast and warming airmass over the southeast US. Moisture begins to rotate around the upper level high pressure centered over the southeast and a warm front will make a run at us sometime late Monday into Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Challenging next 6 to 18 hour aviation forecast with low cigs this morning followed by chances for convection with gusty winds today. Crnt obs shows a mix of ifr at mpv to mvfr at rut/slk/btv/mss and vfr at pbg. Thinking ifr prevail thru 12z at mpv and develops in the next 1 to 2 hours at slk. Otherwise...a brief period of ifr cigs are possible at btv with breezy south winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. A cluster of showers with embedded storms will impact mss btwn 06-08z this morning with brief heavy rainfall and isolated lightning and the potential for mvfr cigs/vis with pocket of ifr vis possible. Expecting a line of showers and storms to move from west to east across our taf sites btwn 18z-22z today. The primary threat will be localized gusty winds up to 40 knots in the stronger elements, along with rapidly shifting sfc winds, creating areas of low level turbulence and shear in and around thunderstorms. A brief period of ifr vis/cig is possible in any of the heavier convection. Winds shift to the northwest by evening with drier air developing and improving cigs. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... The Lake Wind Advisory continues today for south winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet. Expect winds to slacken this afternoon, before increasing again this evening and shifting to the northwest at 20 to 30 knots through midnight. These winds will quickly decrease below advisory level after midnight tonight and remain light on Thursday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Taber MARINE...Taber - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html