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Expires:201811012000;;051361
FPUS51 KBTV 010745
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018


VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
343 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of rain with
patchy drizzle this morning, then rain likely this afternoon. Highs
in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of snow showers. Little or
no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows
in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in
the lower 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 

$$


Expires:201811011100;;058552
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      47  42  83 NE6       29.89R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    43  43 100 SW3       29.91S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    43  42  97 N5        29.90R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  42 100 MISG      29.86F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    42  42  97 CALM      29.89R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    46  46  97 CALM      29.87R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    53  51  93 NE3       29.86S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    45  45 100 E3        29.87S                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    41  41  99 CALM      29.90S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    42  42 100 N5        29.88S FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    54  49  83 CALM      29.86F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     43 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     37 N/A N/A NW24        N/A  WCI  26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  43  93 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  45  87 NE15        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  46  87 N8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;056768
FXUS61 KBTV 010941 CCA
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is expected with several waves of moderate
rain over the North Country. The first wave of rain will move 
through this afternoon and evening as a stalled boundary sets up
over the region and the second wave will be on Saturday morning
as another system moves along the stalled boundary. Expect a 
brief period of pleasant weather on Sunday and Monday before the
next wave of unsettled weather returns by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Latest GOES-E satellite imagery 
points a picture of quite a bit of cloud cover with low level 
clouds across the region. With some sites reporting brief 
periods of lowered visibilities I've continued the idea of 
patchy drizzle and/or some light fog across the region for 
everywhere except the Champlain Valley. Temps are starting to 
fall as the stalled boundary sags to the south after warming 
into the low 50s for almost everywhere east of the Greens. 
Expect the overnight lows to be fairly mild and only in the 
upper 30s to low 40s. By this afternoon we'll start to see some 
light to moderate rain push into northern New York as warm air 
advection allows strong isentropic lift and develops widespread 
rain. The highest chances this afternoon and evening for heavy 
rainfall will be over northern New York but everywhere across 
the North Country should see a period of rain. All told through 
Friday afternoon we should see somewhere between 1-1.5 inches of
rain. This will likely produce some modest rises in main stem 
rivers and a hydro section below goes into more detail.

Rain continues through the night as surface low tracks into 
central New York. This isn't the normal low track and offers 
really challenging temperature forecast for Friday's max temps. 
Depending on where the front aligns and the low sits we could 
see a temp delta of 15-25 degrees from northwest to southeast. 
Expect the Saint Lawrence valley to be under modest to at times 
brisk northeasterly flow while the rest of the North Country is 
under southerly warm air advection. Temps across parts of the 
Mid Atlantic got into the 70s today so its not completely out of
the question that southern Vermont could get into the low to 
mid 60s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...Inclement weather continues for 
Friday night into Saturday as we'll still be dealing with our 
semi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. Yet 
another wave of low pressure will track along this boundary 
during the period bringing continued high probabilities of rain 
and/or showers given favorable dynamics and upper jet support. 
Highest probabilities for steadier rains have shifted slightly 
eastward with most recent guidance, and as such highest PoPs 
will be offered across the eastern half of the forecast area 
where additional totals from a half to one inch are expected. 
Temperatures will remain challenging with the front bi-furcating
the area, but the overall theme for cooler northwest to milder 
southeast still looks reasonable at this point as lows range 
from the upper 30s to upper 40s and highs top out generally in 
the 45 to 55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...Models maintain general consistency
from Sunday into Monday of next week suggesting weak high 
pressure and a window of dry and seasonable weather. Thereafter 
solutions diverge somewhat with the GFS showing a more easterly 
track of a rather potent mid-week system while this morning's 
ECWMF is slower with flow more amplified. Regardless, confidence
remains high that a return of inclement weather with period of 
light rain and/or showers by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week
as synoptic flow trends southwesterly and temperatures trend 
quite mild (50s).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Expect a mix of flight conditions through 
the rest of the overnight hours as LIFR and IFR ceilings have 
been observed in northern New York as low level moisture is 
holding on a low stratus layer along a stationary warm front. 
Across the rest of the TAF sites a mix of VFR/MVFR can be 
expected through the rest of the evening as the low level 
stratus remains over the region. BTV could see some brief IFR 
as the flow turns northerly and thats a favourable IFR wind 
direction in low stratus. There should be a brief break in the 
MVFR ceilings mid morning before widespread rain brings ceilings
back to MVFR with visibilities between 4-6 miles. Winds will 
generally be light and variable through the period.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Likely
SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR. Likely RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The combination of several waves of moderate to at times heavy 
rainfall will see modest rises in main stem rivers especially 
across central and southern Vermont where antecedent conditions 
are fairly wet. Being that its late in the season there isn't 
much in the way of vegetation that will be able to absorb the 
1-3 inches of rainfall. So much of the rain that falls will 
runoff into streams and rivers. The small streams should be able
to release the precip that falls into main stem rivers fast 
enough to not see any flooding but there's some potential for the
Ausable river at Au Sable Forks and the Otter Creek at Center 
Rutland to rise to near flood stage. At this time flooding is not 
forecast and rises on the rivers will be highly dependent on where
the most significant rain falls.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Deal
HYDROLOGY...Deal

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