Expires:201812132100;;727455 FPUS51 KBTV 131141 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 638 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 VTZ006-132100- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 638 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of flurries this afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s. South winds around 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 18. South winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 20s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. $$ Expires:201812131200;;726959 ASUS41 KBTV 131130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST THU DEC 13 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-131200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON FAIR 3 -2 79 NE5 30.40R WCI -6 MONTPELIER FAIR -7 -10 87 CALM 30.41R MORRISVILLE FAIR -13 -17 82 CALM 30.42R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A -8 -12 83 MISG 30.44R LYNDONVILLE* FAIR -8 -12 80 CALM N/A MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 3 -1 83 CALM 30.39R RUTLAND* FAIR 16 1 51 S10G20 30.37R WCI 4 SPRINGFIELD FAIR 5 3 91 CALM 30.45R HIGHGATE* FAIR -3 -6 86 SE3 30.41S NEWPORT* FAIR -9 -12 84 SW6 30.41R WCI -22 BENNINGTON CLOUDY 21 1 41 VRB5 30.34R WCI 15 ISLAND POND* N/A -26 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A -13 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A -17 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 7 N/A N/A S18 N/A WCI -12 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 14 10 85 SE12 N/A WCI 0 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 16 14 93 SE14 N/A WCI 1 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 14 12 92 SE6 N/A WCI 5 $$ Expires:No;;727468 FXUS61 KBTV 131143 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 643 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance aloft passing to our south may provide a few snow showers and or flurries to the region today, but generally dry conditions are expected as surface high pressure off the New England coast dominates. An upper trough passing north of the region will bring a chance of rain and snow showers late Friday afternoon and early Friday night, before dry conditions return again for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal today, but warm into the 30s and 40s for Friday and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 643 AM EST Thursday...No major updates needed to this mornings forecast other than to tweak temps to match current observational trends. Current spread of temps across the region range from -26F at Island Pond Airport to +23F atop Whiteface Mountain. Crazy. Prior Discussion... Mid/upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the region this morning continues to provide bone- chilling temperatures for many locations with the coldest spot in the BTV CWA being Island Pond airport reporting -21F as of 2 AM. Many locations are in the single digits to teens below zero, but where winds didn't decouple and high clouds moved in temperatures have remained steady or slowly risen into the single digits to teens above zero. Warmest spot in the CWA, oddly enough, is the top of Whiteface Mountain coming in at +21F at 2 AM, which was actually well forecast by hi-res model soundings which showed warming during the overnight at 850mb. To our south, a weak shortwave aloft is providing enough moisture and lift to produce some snow showers across western New York, and as this feature pivots across the Mid-Atlantic states today, we may see a few snow showers and/or flurries across central/southern portions of the North Country, but no accumulations are expected. Most areas will likely remain dry with temps rebounding nicely into the mid 20s to low 30s. For tonight, dry conditions continue as upper ridging redevelops in the wake of the exiting shortwave, and surface high pressure very slowly shifts offshore to our east. Despite very dry mid/upper levels, a weak subsidence inversion will keep skies rather cloudy and will hold temps in the teens to 20s overnight. Expect the highest summits of the Adirondacks to poke above the clouds though. On Friday we'll see generally dry conditions continue through much of the day until the afternoon when chances for rain/snow showers increase as warm air advection develops from the south and an upper trough approaches from the north. Southerly winds will increase markedly into the 10-20 mph range and warm the boundary layer well into the 30s with some locations pushing 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 256 AM EST Thursday...Trends in the data continue to support the idea that we will be more influenced by northern stream shortwave rather than larger upper circulation to our south. This will keep precipitation on the lighter side and best chances for precipitation will be over our northern areas. Thermal profile suggests precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow as cloud cover and warmer temperatures aloft keep lows generally in the 30s Friday night. West to northwest flow aloft develops over the area on Saturday and its now looking like a mainly dry day with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 256 AM EST Thursday...Most areas remain dry on Sunday but we could see some moisture moving up from the south late in the day and Sunday night which could bring some precipitation to our southern areas. Better chances for precipitation look to be later on Monday and Monday night as shortwave trough drops down out of Canada. Thermal profile suggests mainly snow on Monday with some rain mixing in across the larger valleys...but as cold air advection get established Monday night the precipitation would be in the form of snow. Northwest flow aloft Monday night would also tend to start focusing any precipitation over the northern Adirondacks and the northern half of Vermont. Could see some light accumulations. Snow showers will linger in the mountains on Tuesday before high pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday for a return to dry weather. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with highs in the 30s...then as clouds and precipitation move in on Monday highs will be in the low to mid 30s and with cold air advection on Tuesday highs will only be in the upper teens to mid 20s. More sun on Wednesday will lead to some warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with brief MVFR possible across northern New York. High cirrus deck building in from the southwest will continue to shift northeast across the region this morning while gradually lowering to a mid deck around 12kft. Exception will be KPBG where a lake induced IFR/MVFR deck will persist for a few more hours before lifting to VFR. For this afternoon, upstream obs still show MVFR over the eastern Great Lakes and these clouds may shift into northern New York affecting KMSS and KSLK for a brief period before shifting south of the region this evening. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail with cigs lowering to just above the mountain tops by the afternoon and remain there through the overnight. Light and variable winds this morning trend southerly at less than 10 knots after 12Z and through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html