Expires:201901022100;;736830 FPUS51 KBTV 021130 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 626 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 VTZ006-022100- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 627 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 .TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 17. Light and variable winds. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow until midnight, then light snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 13. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Light snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Near steady temperature in the lower 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 10 above. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s. $$ Expires:201901021200;;736840 ASUS41 KBTV 021130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST WED JAN 02 2019 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-021200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 15 7 70 NE5 30.36R WCI 8 MONTPELIER FAIR 12 8 84 CALM 30.30R MORRISVILLE FAIR 11 6 81 N6 30.32R WCI 1 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 10 5 80 MISG 30.30R LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 7 3 84 CALM 30.29R MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 16 10 78 CALM 30.34R RUTLAND* FAIR 16 11 80 N3 30.31R SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 21 10 62 N3 30.30R HIGHGATE* FAIR 10 6 81 CALM 30.39R NEWPORT* FAIR 6 3 88 CALM 30.31R BENNINGTON FAIR 19 13 77 CALM 30.28R ISLAND POND* N/A 1 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 3 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 3 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 16 12 86 N6G12 N/A WCI 7 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 18 12 79 NE13 N/A WCI 4 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 19 14 79 N8 N/A WCI 9 $$ Expires:No;;737442 FXUS61 KBTV 021149 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 649 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build southeastward across New York and New England today, bringing mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures. An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring increasing clouds with periods of light snow areawide late tonight into Thursday morning. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are generally expected across the North Country, and may result in some minor travel delays for the Thursday morning commute. A return to above normal temperatures is expected for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 641 AM EST Wednesday...Made minor adjustments to cloud cover and temps. Appears mid-level wave and associated altostratus will shift east of VT by mid-morning, leaving skies sunny for the balance of the day. Still seeing some stratus around 2000' AGL vcnty of Lake Champlain per observations at BTV and PBG. Also expect these low clouds to dissipate by mid- morning. Previous Discussion...Winds as gradually lessening as 1028mb sfc anticyclone over the Ottawa Valley builds sewd. Combination of passing mid-level clouds and some lingering stratus across the mountains is limiting radiative cooling somewhat, but still a chilly start this AM with lows generally in the single digits to low teens. The sfc anticyclone will be our controlling weather feature today. It appears the passing altostratus will clear the region to the east in fast westerly flow, setting up generally sunny conditions and light winds for the daylight period. Today's highs generally expected in the upper teens to lower 20s. Northern stream shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes region late tonight, with 500mb trough axis crossing the North Country between 12-15Z Thursday from west to east. Moisture is limited - associated PW values generally 0.25-0.35" - but appears period of mid-level QG/synoptic forcing is sufficient for widespread light snowfall mainly 06-13Z Thursday. Good dendrite growth should yield SLRs 15:1 to 20:1, and overall looking at 1-3" snowfall accumulation for the region late tonight into the Thursday AM commute period. May see some minor travel delays for the Thursday AM commute, but light fluffy character of the dendrites should preclude any significant issues with anticipated sub-advisory level event. Increasing clouds and developing S-SE winds will keep temperatures quasi- steady or slowly rise during the pre- dawn hours Thursday, with temperatures mainly in the upr teens to lower 20s overnight. Steady light snow ends quickly Thursday morning, but included a chance for lingering snow showers across the mtns for the balance of the day, even as skies become partly sunny most valley sections. Temps moderate by Thursday afternoon with highs 28-34F, warmest in the CT River Valley. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 243 AM EST Wednesday...The northern periphery of a surface anticyclone over the Ohio River Valley will crest over the North Country early Thursday night. This will allow for a brief lull in snow showers before PoP chances slightly increase through the night as the high shifts east. Modest warm air advection through the latter part of the night will lead to some shallow isentropic ascent, resulting in some light snow showers. However, moisture transport/upper support is quite weak, which will restrict total snow accumulations Thursday night to under an inch in higher elevations, and little more than a few flurriesto a dusting in lower elevations. Given the uptick in moisture advection off Lake Ontario, expecting the best chance for accumulations in northern New York, with lesser chances further east, especially into the lower elevations of Vermont. Any residual snow showers will taper off through the day Friday. Friday will also be rather breezy due to a 45 kt low-level jet traversing the region. Southwest/west winds generally 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph can be expected...with the highest winds expected in northern New York and higher elevations of Vermont. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 243 AM EST Wednesday...Subtle height rises and brief subsidence over the region will allow for quiet weather Friday night through Saturday morning. The potential remains for a coastal low tracking near Benchmark (40N 70W) to spread some precipitation into southern and eastern portions of the CWA Saturday evening through Saturday night. There still remains question as to how far inland precipitation associated with the system will reach. The GFS and FV3 have been fairly consistent over the past few model runs in keeping precipitation associated with the system south and east of our forecast area, while the ECMWF holds tight to a slightly further inland track that would spread precip over portions of the North Country. Given the run-to-run consistency of the ECMWF, went ahead and maintained some 25 to 50% chance PoPs over portions of the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Given the influx of warm, moist air into the mid-levels over VT/ portions of northeastern NY with the ECMWF track of the low, thermal profiles would support the potential for some mixed precipitation. However, continuing to keep any mention of mixed precip out of the grids for now given that the ECMWF is still the outlier...but will continue to mention the possibility in the AFD. Regardless of the exact track the low takes, the system will depart to the northeast Sunday, prompting a return to drier and colder northwesterly flow. As a result, temperatures Sunday night through Monday night will return to below seasonal norms. The next system to potentially impact the area will take the form of a developing surface low over the Plains under an upper- wave ejecting out of the southern Rockies Monday night. As the system tracks northeastward, confidence is increasing in widespread precipitation spreading over the North Country during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Still too early to tell precipitation type as models are still struggling with the location of the primary low...stay tuned for more details over the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Generally expecting VFR-SKC thru 00Z this evening. However, localized stratus vcnty of Lake Champlain continue to affect BTV and PBG. Included tempo MVFR (BKN019) conditions at BTV thru 14Z. Otherwise, mid-level clouds will quickly shift east of the region by mid-morning leaving SKC. Mid- level clouds redevelop from west to east after 00Z this evening as shortwave trough approaches from the Great Lakes, with cigs lowering to MVFR after 06Z in developing light snow areawide. May see some IFR vsby in 1-2SM light snow 08-12Z Thursday with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Minor impacts to aviation ground operations expected early AM Thursday. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Banacos - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html