Expires:201901012100;;685622
FPUS51 KBTV 011149
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019


VTZ006-012100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
646 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019

.TODAY...Cloudy. Rain showers or a chance of snow showers this
morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Total snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Breezy with highs in the upper
30s. Temperature falling into the mid 20s this afternoon. West winds
15 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph this afternoon. Gusts
up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until
midnight. Lows around zero. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph,
diminishing to around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of snow
20 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 14. Northwest winds around 10 mph
in the morning, becoming light and variable. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 9 above. South winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows
in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201901011200;;685039
ASUS41 KBTV 011130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 01 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    42  39  89 S22G32    29.30F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    35  34  96 S15       29.40F WCI  25          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    38  36  92 S14G20    29.32F WCI  30          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  35 100 MISG      29.37F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    33  33  98 SE5       29.38F WCI  29          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    43  41  91 S18G24    29.37F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    45  44  97 SW13G22   29.42R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  34  34 100 N3        29.47F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    43  40  89 S17G30    29.25S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    35  34  98 S8        29.30F WCI  28          
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  51  44  77 SW10G18   29.45S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A S7          N/A  WCI  30          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A SW7         N/A  WCI  30          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A SW54G74     N/A  WCI  24          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  37  87 S25G41      N/A  WCI  31          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  39  93 S33         N/A  WCI  29          

$$


Expires:No;;682156
FXUS61 KBTV 011017
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
517 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow covered and locally icy travel conditions will continue
early this morning, especially along and east of the Green
Mountains in Vermont, and in the St. Lawrence Valley of far
northern New York. A strong surface low over Lake Ontario early
this morning will track northeastward along the International 
Border and into Maine later today. A trailing cold front will 
result in developing gusty northwesterly winds up to 35 mph
across the North Country by late this morning, along with 
falling temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers through
this afternoon. High pressure building into New York and New 
England in the wake of this system will bring cold temperatures 
tonight and Wednesday, followed by a gradual warming trend for 
the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 513 AM EST Tuesday...Quick update to discontinue the
Winter Weather Advisory across northern NY, where temperatures
have warmed well above freezing in advance of the cold front.
Also, appears downslope winds may reach 40-50 mph across
portions of eastern Rutland/Windsor counties in south-central VT
with cold frontal passage later this morning. We've decided to
post a Wind Advisory for that area through 23Z, with the peak
gusts expected around the mid-day hours. Have maintained Winter
Weather Advisories across central/ern VT for now, but we'll be
discontinuing those closer to 7am. 

Previous Discussion...Have seen a combination of 
snow/sleet/freezing rain east of the Greens in VT, and noted 
0.10" ice accumulation at the KMSS ASOS in the past 6 hours. 
Steadiest precipitation is about to shift east of the CT River 
at 0630Z, but will continue to see some intermittent light mixed
precipitation thru 12Z as 993mb sfc low near Toronto, Ont. 
tracks rapidly newd. Temperatures will slowly rise thru the 30s 
in most areas thru 12Z...but as sfc low tracks to our north and 
east, rapid nwly wind shift will bring about strong CAA for the 
daylight hrs with steady to slowly falling temps. Thus, lots of 
non-diurnal temp trends next 12-18hrs. Will see some scattered 
light snow showers with shallow instability, especially in 
orographically favored locations thru the daylight hours today. 
Looking for a dusting to 2" accumulation 12-00Z across the 
central and nrn Greens and Adirondacks, and potential for a 
coating to 1" across much of nern VT with these snow showers 
during the daylight hrs. Little or no accumulation expected 
elsewhere. With the steep low-level lapse rates and strong 
P-gradient, winds will becoming increasingly gusty from the W-NW
most sections from 15-23Z, with sustained winds 15-25mph and 
gusts up to 35 mph at times. It appears downslope winds will be
locally higher...and may reach 40-50 mph east of the Greens in
eastern Rutland/Windsor counties in s-central VT. we've added a
Wind Advisory there through 23Z today. We've maintained the 
Lake Wind Advisory on Lake Champlain thru today as well. 

Will still see some low-level CAA and lingering snow flurries
early tonight, but overall trend will be for clearing and drying
conditions as sfc anticyclone settles across sern Ontario and
nrn NY after 06Z. Diminishing winds late and cold air mass
should set up several hrs with good radiative cooling late
tonight. Looking for early AM lows generally in the single
digits above zero for Wednesday, and locally zero to -10F in the
nrn Adirondacks. Wednesday will feature dry conditions and
ineffective sunshine with highs generally in the mid teens to
around 20F. PoPs NIL with high pressure remaining in control.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Tuesday...As high pressure shifts off the New
England Coast Wednesday night, return southwesterly flow will
increase over the area. Low temperatures in the teens will be
reached early in the night before increasing warm air advection
allows temperatures to begin a gradual climb after midnight.
Increasing isentropic upglide and moisture advection in the
280-285 K layer along with positive vorticity advection ahead of
a dampening northern-stream upper wave will result in some light
snow showers starting overnight and lasting through the morning.
Available moisture with the system is limited, so total snow
accumulations will remain generally under an inch throughout the
forecast area. At this point, looks like the timing of the bulk
of the (meager) accumulations with the system will be in the
early morning hours of Thursday, then snow showers will taper
off through the day. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Tuesday...Long term forecast starts off fairly 
benign Thursday night into Friday with dry weather and 
temperatures climbing back to above normal. 

Attention then turns to the weekend, when the potential for some 
more active weather returns. A closed upper-low over the 
southern Plains will develop a surface low as it encounters 
increasing baroclinicity along the northern Gulf Coast Friday 
morning. The stacked low will lift northeastward Friday, 
tracking off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. There 
continues to be model discrepancies on how close the system 
then tracks to the southern New England Coast Saturday, leading 
to some question as to how far north the associated 
precipitation will spread. Current thinking is that the 
strengthening low will track near or inside of Benchmark (40N 
70W), spreading precipitation as far north as southern/central 
Vermont. Warm air advection will allow the mid-levels to warm 
fairly rapidly as the system approaches. Surface temperatures 
should initially start off sub-freezing Saturday morning before
warming to above freezing through the day. Resultant thermal 
profiles could support some mixed precipitation, at least 
initially, in any areas that do end up precipitating. However, 
given the potential for the system to pass well to our south and
miss our forecast area all together, have held off adding any 
mixed precipitation to the forecast with this package...but will
be watching the trends closely and adjust as needed over the 
following days. 

Sunday will trend drier but colder as high pressure builds
behind the departing coastal system.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Locally icy conditions early this 
morning at KMSS/KMPV, but above freezing temps at remaining TAF 
locations with wet conditions. Winds initially S/SE at 10-15kts 
with gusts 20-25kts possible thru 12Z. Some LLWS possible thru 
12z RUT/MSS/SLK, and included in TAFs. As sfc low tracks newd 
along the intl border, winds will shift NWLY at 15-25kt with 
gusts 25-35kt possible for the 14Z-23Z period today. Will see 
combination of IFR/MVFR conditions in rain and mixed 
precipitation thru 14Z with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Thereafter, as winds
become NW, ceilings will generally improve back to VFR except 
locally MVFR at KSLK. Scattered -SHSN with occasional 3-5SM 
VSBY possible for the daylight period, mainly MPV/SLK. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure tracking newd along the Intl Border today 
will bring strong south winds (20-30kts) thru the early morning
hours, followed by a rapid nwly wind shift around 14Z (9AM), and
winds 25-35kts from the NW through much of the daylight period
today. Wave heights will increase to 4 to 6 feet this morning
and may become increasingly choppy with the wind shift mid-late
this morning. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the
duration of the event, but will likely be dropped at some point
tonight/early Wednesday morning as pressure gradient and wind
speeds diminish.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-
     004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos

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