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Expires:201903072100;;993923
FPUS51 KBTV 071135
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019


VTZ006-072100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
632 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 17. West winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows around
1 above. West winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 8 above. West winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow or rain showers. Little or no snow accumulation.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201903071200;;993750
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU MAR 07 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY     9   0  67 SW6       30.15R WCI  -1          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     2   0  91 W5        30.10R WCI  -8          
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW   1  -3  83 CALM      30.11R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -6 -11  79 MISG      30.10R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -5  -9  84 CALM      30.07R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       1  -5  73 CALM      30.16R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     7  -1  70 SW6       30.13R WCI  -3          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      -8 -12  83 CALM      30.16R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY     2  -3  82 S3        30.16R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -7  -9  88 CALM      30.08R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR       3  -4  72 CALM      30.16R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -15 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -13 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A    -13 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      5   0  78 S3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     10   0  61 W14         N/A  WCI  -5          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A      5   1  85 SW2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;993933
FXUS61 KBTV 071135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The long-awaited pattern change will begin today as the upper level 
trough that has brought this unseasonably cold air exits eastward. 
Before that happens, another round of convective snow showers will 
be possible this afternoon. On Friday, temperatures will warm near 
normal with afternoon highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows will 
remain near normal through Saturday as readings bottom out in the 
single digits above and below zero. Temperatures will continue to 
warm through the weekend and into Monday but a decent storm system 
looks poised to impact the North Country on Sunday. A mix of rain 
and snow is expected with this system as well as a period of gusty 
southerly winds. Surface high pressure will bring quiet weather back 
to the region by Monday afternoon with temperatures expected to 
remain near normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM EST Thursday...The beginning of a pattern change will
take place today as the longwave trough that has brought well below
normal temperatures for the past several days will finally begin to
displace eastward. Before that happens, a shortwave along the
western periphery of the upper level trough will push through the
North Country during the afternoon hours. The combination of peak
heating and increased upper level dynamics will likely yield some
diurnally driven snow showers, with the main focus across central
Vermont, southern Vermont and the Adirondack Mountains. Snowfall
accumulations will be rather marginal with amounts less than a half
inch across southern and central Vermont with maybe a dusting
elsewhere. Shower activity will wane quickly after sunset tonight
with the loss of upper level dynamics and moisture. Temperatures
today will once again be on the cold side with plenty of cloud cover
to keep the spring sun from making too much of an impact. Readings
this afternoon will once again be close to 15 degrees below zero as
temperatures only warm into the mid teens to lower 20s.

As advertised, a warming trend will be seen on Friday with the upper
level trough east moving off the Newfoundland coast. A noticeable
warm air advection pattern will be seen with 850 mb temperatures
warming 7 to 10 degrees from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
This will yield temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Friday
with mostly sunny skies expected with the loss of large scale
cyclonic flow. Temperatures Friday night will continue to be below
normal as skies remain mostly clear with readings in the single
digits above and below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Very quiet period of weather is
anticipated as 1032mb high pres noses into northern New England
from central Canada and mid/upper ridge builds aloft. The
challenge will be daily high and low temps, especially with high
pres overhead and dry mid levels. This should allow for large
diurnal temp swings, as shallow level inversion develop each
night. Expect lows ranging from -5f to 15f on Friday with highs
upper 20s to mid 30s on Saturday with sunshine. Should be a
great day for outdoor activities with light winds. Temps drop
quickly Sat evening into the single digits NEK to upper
teens/lower 20s wider valleys, before warming after midnight as
clouds and winds increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band
of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our
cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa.
Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with
window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate
qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry
slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some
downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting
to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized
gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but
some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level
inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will
help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days.
Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged
925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change
to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to
support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east,
so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible
on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the
Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in
the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday
night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z,
supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be
light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows
potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving
across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift,
combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold
front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains
overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as
850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for
midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by
Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows
single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Some light snow showers have persisted into
the morning hours but recent satellite and radar imagery shows
these showers tapering off. This lull will be short-lived as
scattered snow showers are expected to re-develop by this
afternoon. The best chances for snow showers will be south of
KBTV with the possibility of MVFR/IFR visibilities associated
with these showers. Due to lack of confidence in timing and
coverage, have continues VCSH from the 16Z to 00Z time frame.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail with the
exception of some gusty westerly winds across KSLK and KMSS this
afternoon.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Clay

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