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Expires:201905072000;;077959
FPUS51 KBTV 071008
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019


VTZ006-072000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019

.TODAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph this morning, becoming light and variable. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers until
midnight, then mostly clear after midnight. Patchy frost after
midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Patchy frost in the morning. Sunny. Highs in the lower
50s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds
around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:201905071100;;079001
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 07 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      59  49  69 S15       30.00R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    52  41  66 SE5       30.06R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    52  46  80 CALM      30.01S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     53  38  56 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    49  37  61 SE3       30.05R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  56  49  74 S8        30.03F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    52  44  74 SE8       30.06S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      43  39  86 CALM      30.09S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    56  49  76 NW3       30.01R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    51  42  72 SE9       30.02R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    51  46  83 CALM      30.08S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A N2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A W25         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  48  76 S14G20      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  46  82 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  52  77 S10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;071078
FXUS61 KBTV 070729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers are expected by late morning into mid afternoon, 
mainly across central and southern counties as a cold front crosses 
the area. Conditions trend cooler and drier behind the front tonight 
into Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds southward. Inclement 
weather with periods of light rain returns by Thursday into Friday 
before fair and milder weather return by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast largely remains on 
track for today as a well advertised cold front crosses the 
area. Latest hi-res guidance indicates that the front will pass 
through mainly dry across far northern counties by late morning 
to early afternoon with a higher threat of showers across 
central and southern counties generally along and south of a 
KOGS-KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 line as overnight decaying convection across
the lower Great Lakes tracks east-northeasterly. QPF from this 
feature to remain light, ranging from only a few hundredths 
along the intl. border and generally less than a quarter inch 
elsewhere save the higher terrain of the southern Greens where 
scattered totals to near 0.40" are possible. High temperatures 
to average considerably cooler today given ample clouds and 
proximity of the frontal boundary - mainly 50s.

Quiet weather returns by tonight into Wednesday as the front pushes 
well south and Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Skies 
to trend partly cloudy this evening, then mostly clear overnight 
into Wednesday as large-scale drying and subsidence evolve. With 
light winds and good radiative effects low temperatures will trend 
on the chilly side tonight with most areas bottoming out in the 30s 
and a few upper 20s in favored northern mountain hollows. As such, 
some patchy frost will be likely in areas outside the Champlain and 
lower CT River Valleys. Highs on Wednesday once again mainly in the 
50s, though light winds and strong spring sunshine should make the 
seasonably cool readings actually feel fairly nice.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Tuesday...We start out with ridging at all
levels Wed ngt with trof/shortwave in Plains slowly lifting NE 
into Canada with surface low moving into the Great Lakes. Much 
of the upper level support and warm/moist air advection is 
across Great Lakes Wed ngt with potential climological pattern 
of some early warm air advection showers moving across northern 
NY Thursday morning with a majority holding off til late 
Thursday-Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface low slowly moving northeast across 
Great Lakes Thu Ngt - Fri with persiestent warm air advection 
pattern across our area with PWATS 1-1.5 inches for some decent 
rainfall Thu ngt-early Friday morning. 

We get into brief warm sector/dry slot on Friday awaiting 
upstream shortwave to kick cold front through late Friday-Friday
night with more showery rainfall ending favorably by Saturday 
morning. Early model rainfall consensus appears to range from 
3/4 to 1 inch in southern VT with 1-2 inches possible in 
NY/Northern VT. 

A few weeks ago that would have caused problems but drying 
ahead of this system, river levels returning to near normal and 
no snowmelt should make this rainfall manageable. Additionally, 
as we've recently have seen with past events that model QPF this
far in advance has appeared overdone, thus will need to wait 
and see and currently thinking is lowering amounts.

Lake Champlain lake level has been on a nice but slow recession, 
currently at 100.6 feet. Upcoming rainfall should stabilize that 
recession or perhaps temporarily reverse, although slightly, that 
trend. No expectations for the lake to approach 101 feet at this 
time.

Clearing on Saturday with departing system and some shortwave 
ridging between exiting system and another trof/shortwave dropping 
into the northern MS river Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday which 
will deliver a surface low across OH River Vly and south of New 
England Monday but upper support traveling across area may bring a 
few showers if tapped into enough moisture.

Thus...weekend looking good for now with Highs around 60 on Saturday 
and in the 60s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Cold front to cross the area today with
a 2-4 hour window of showers, focused mainly along a KSLK-KBTV
line southward per most recent hi-res model data. Cigs mainly 
BKN/OVC VFR, though a period of MVFR likely at selected 
terminals later this morning into early afternoon near and 
immediately behind the frontal passage. Winds light 
south/southwesterly through 10-14Z, shifting north/northwesterly
in the 14-18Z time frame as the front passes. After 00Z front 
clears well south with skies scattering out and winds trending 
light.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JMG

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