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Expires:201907172000;;771068
FPUS51 KBTV 170834
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
430 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.TODAY...Showers likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall until midnight. Lows
in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Warmer with highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:201907171100;;776152
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     RAIN      73  69  87 S10       29.88R FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    74  65  73 MISG      29.94S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  70  67  90 S5        29.89R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  66  97 MISG      29.87S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    66  64  94 CALM      29.93R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  70  69  97 SE6       29.94S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    72  66  81 CALM      29.93S                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   75  72  91 S3        29.85R                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      69  68  98 S6        29.90S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    70  68  93 CALM      29.96S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     66 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     68 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     64 N/A N/A W23         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     75  70  83 SW8G15      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     75  70  83 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     73  70  88 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;772148
FXUS61 KBTV 170853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
453 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of weather is expected across the North Country
through Saturday. Showers are expected this morning with heavy 
downpours possible over southern areas. A cold front drops south
from Canada and heavy downpours from showers or storms will be
possible this afternoon over northern areas. The cold front
pushes south tonight and drier weather is expected for Thursday
and Thursday night. Hot and humid conditions are expected on
Friday and Saturday. There could be some late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms on Friday. The best chance for 
thunderstorms...some of which could be strong or severe...looks
to be Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 453 AM EDT Wednesday...First surge of moisture associated
with tropical system Barry is now moving into our area...mainly
across the southern sections. Flow aloft will be west to 
southwest this morning and thus expect additional showers...some
with heavy downpours...to move across most of the area. 
Precipitation shield is not continuous upstream but would expect
additional showers or isolated storms to move in across the 
same areas getting the precipitation this morning. This could 
enhance the potential for localized flooding given the high 
moisture content...but not expecting widespread flooding. One 
interesting trend is this afternoon the flow aloft becomes more 
west and northwest which helps to bring down a cold front from 
Canada. Thus northern areas that are not receiving much in the 
way of precipitation this morning could see bursts of heavy 
downpours from showers and storms ahead of the southward moving 
front this afternoon. With precipitable water values around 2 
inches the potential for localized flooding will exist later 
this afternoon and into the early evening hours. With plenty of 
clouds and precipitation over the area today high temperatures 
will generally be in the 70s to around 80.

The front moves south of the area by about midnight and this
will help to bring precipitation to an end from north to south 
during the first half of the night. Lows will generally be in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Thursday looks to be a day of
transition with weak high pressure over the area and limited
forcing to inhibit convection. Thus most of the area should stay
dry with a return to south-southwest flow later in the day which
could develop a shower or two over parts of northern New York.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 453 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry weather is expected Thursday 
night with lows in the 60s to around 70. Continued south to 
southwest flow will allow for the return of higher dew points 
Thursday night and this will continue into Friday. The idea of 
hot and humid conditions for Friday looks real good with 
noticeably warmer 925 and 850 millibar temperatures moving into 
the region. Highs should be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dew 
points reach the 70 degree mark in the afternoon. The larger 
valleys will be looking at Heat Index values in the lower to mid
90s and 85 to 90 in the mountains. These conditions will 
increase the risk for heat related illnesses. Instability will 
develop over the region in these conditions...but forcing will 
be limited and ridging aloft will help to cap the atmosphere. 
Cannot rule out the possibility of some late day convection 
given CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range...but activity 
should be isolated and with deep layer shear on the weak 
side...any storms would be pulse in nature. Saturday appears to 
be the day where storms are more likely and the threat of strong
to severe convection will exist as well. See long term 
discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 453 AM EDT Wednesday...Latest suite of guidance offers 
little changes to prior forecast thinking regarding the 
likelihood of oppressive heat and humidity for the end of the 
week/beginning of weekend. With warm and muggy conditions 
expected Friday, and little relief from limited convection, 
temperatures Friday night under generally light southwesterly 
flow will keep nighttime temperatures from falling to 
comfortable levels. St. Lawrence and Champlain valley locations 
will see lows only dropping into the mid 70s with upper 60s to 
low 70s elsewhere. These warm nighttime temperatures will help 
prime us for increased heat on Saturday as 925 mb temperatures 
warm a degree or so from Friday. At the moment I am hedging on 
the conservative side of guidance for max temperatures given 
signals for convection across our area on Saturday, however heat
headlines are looking increasingly necessary regardless, 
especially across the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. Current
heat index values are between 95-104, with a few locations 
across Addison county likely to exceed these. 

Both 00z GFS/Canadian and to a lesser extent 00z Euro (although 12z 
Euro supported previous consensus) suggest active weather for 
Saturday afternoon. Ingredients are coming together which indicate 
the potential for strong/possibly severe thunderstorms: height 
falls, shortwave energy, better wind shear, ample moisture and heat, 
and a surface boundary are all present across the North Country. The 
presence of an EML only enhances the possibility for storms. In 
contrast to latest guidance for Friday convection, cap on Saturday 
is much weaker, and low level lapse rates are impressive given such 
warm temperatures. With unidirectional 0-6 km shear ~30-35 kt expect 
squall line/bowing segments as main storm mode with primary threat 
damaging wind gusts.

Sunday should bring relief from the stifling heat and humidity 
however still expect temperatures to be above normal in the mid to 
upper 80s, albeit with dew points in the 60s (not 70s). Chances for 
precipitation remain Sunday as well as we are still under somewhat 
zonal flow ahead of amplifying trough to the west. The well 
advertised pattern change for next week continues to look likely 
with broad upper level trough stationed over New England through 
much of next week. Temperatures will return to near to slightly 
below normal with chances for precipitation throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A mix of MVFR/VFR through the TAF period
as remnants of Barry begin to move into the North Country.
Deck of high clouds will begin to lower through the night with
ceilings becoming MVFR by 12z. Rain showers and potentially 
some thunderstorms will develop after 10Z. Expecting mostly 
MVFR visibilities in these showers, however locally IFR may be 
possible in heavier showers/thunderstorms with best chances at 
KRUT and KMPV terminals. Winds during this time frame will be
generally out of the south between 5-10 knots. A cold front 
sags south from Canada towards 22z bringing with it improved 
conditions on northwesterly/northerly winds between 5-8 kts. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...LaRocca

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