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Expires:201907152000;;668708
FPUS51 KBTV 150826
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
423 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs in the
upper 70s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. West winds around 10 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers with highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:201907151100;;673657
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      60  55  83 CALM      30.04R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      55  52  89 CALM      30.08R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      54  52  93 CALM      30.05R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      57  53  84 NW5       30.05S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      55  54  96 SE3       30.06R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      55  53  93 CALM      30.05R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  57  80 CALM      30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      60  54  82 CALM      30.04R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      56  53  90 CALM      30.06R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     55 N/A N/A NW5         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     54 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W22         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  57  68 W9G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  57  72 W16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  54  63 W7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;669164
FXUS61 KBTV 150834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
434 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area today through Tuesday
morning. Dry weather is expected along with the start of a
warming trend. Highs today will be about 5 degrees warmer than
Sunday and by Tuesday everyone should see highs in the 80s.
Above normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. At the same time...humidity values
will also be increasing and will help to create muggy
conditions. This will also lead to showers and thunderstorms...
especially in the Wednesday through Saturday time period. 
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the showers and 
storms as moisture from the remnants of Barry moves into the 
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 434 AM EDT Monday...Northwest flow aloft will persist 
across the area today...tonight...and most of Tuesday. Mid and 
high level moisture within the flow this morning has limited fog
development along with just enough flow aloft to keep things 
mixed. We should see the clouds go away this morning with a good
deal of sunshine expected. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures 
today suggest highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than 
yesterday with values in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear skies 
tonight will lead to lows in the 50s to around 60.

Tuesday will be a day of transition. Moisture will begin to
return to the region with increasing dew points as the day wears
on. High temperatures will be a bit warmer than today with highs
in the 80s. This will lead to the development of instability out
across portions of northern New York later in the day. Best
source of lift however will be north of the border as upper
trough moves across eastern Canada and its associated cold front
remains north of the border as well. Deep layer shear associated
with this feature suggests best convective potential remains
north of the border. At the same time leading edge of deeper
moisture over the Ohio Valley will spread east-northeast and
should be another focus for convection...but most of it
remaining south of the area. As a result...will scale back the
precipitation chances for Tuesday and confine any showers or
thunderstorms to the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York where the
best instability will develop. Dry weather is expected
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 434 AM EDT Monday...Expect a good deal of hot/humid and 
active weather. We'll see a warm front lift into the North 
Country Tuesday ushering the start of a prolonged period of 
rather unpleasant weather across the North Country. Dew points 
will be creeping up into the mid to upper 60s Tuesday night and 
that going to limit overnight lows. With westerly flow aloft 
we'll be stuck in a warm and moist airmass with 1.5 to 2.0 inch 
pwats and a good deal of instability.

A trigger will come on Wednesday afternoon in the form of a 
shortwave from the west combining with the extratropical transition 
of Barry to produce widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms. 
With the high PWAT airmass, any showers that develop will lead to 
very heavy rain at times.  We'll certainly be watching for any 
potential flooding concerns as warm cloud depths rise to over 10,500 
feet and the columns become almost fully saturated to 400mb. So we 
should see a good deal of warm rain processes at work.

It will be a warm and muggy night Wednesday with lows staying in the 
mid to upper 60s and humidities near 100% and scattered rain 
overnight. Expect much of the same Thursday as the tropical airmass 
slowly starts to pull out of the region towards the east.  Highs 
Thursday will be pushing into the mid 80s with heat index values 
rising to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 434 AM EDT Monday...If middle of the week should be 
considered warm...the end of the week and heading into the 
weekend will be a good bit hotter. We'll have to deal with 
temperatures rising into the 90s and dew points in the lower 
70s. That will combine to creating the potential for some heat 
related headlines. 925mb temps will be pushing towards 24-27C on
Friday and Saturday. The only thing keeping me from forecasting
higher temps is that we'll most likely be dealing with some 
afternoon convection on Friday. Even so none of the showers 
should prevent the North Country from feeling some unpleasant 
conditions. Expect heat index values to push into the mid to 
upper 90s on Friday and upper 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. 
Looking at some of the severe progs, we'll have to monitor any 
subtle changes to the forecast over the weekend because the 
atmosphere looks primed for strong storms to be possible if 
there's enough surface forcing to trigger some development. I've
continued the idea of mentioning the a scattered chance for 
showers throughout the weekend and the feeling is that if 
showers develop they will most likely be strong enough to 
support lightning strikes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
the period. The only exception to this will be at
KSLK...KMPV...and KRUT where visibilities may lower in the 1 to
3 mile range from time to time through 12z this morning.
Ceilings at these locations may also lower into the 500-1000
foot range during this time period. Otherwise winds will
generally be under 10 knots through the period as high pressure
persists over the region and keeps the weather rather quiet
through early Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...Evenson

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