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Expires:201907182000;;241647
FPUS51 KBTV 180825
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019


VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
421 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the
upper 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning,
then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid
with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 40 percent. Heat index values in the mid 90s in the afternoon. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Humid with lows around 70. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Hot with highs around 90. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
40 percent. Heat index values in the upper 90s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:201907181100;;246515
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      63  60  90 CALM      29.99R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    59  59 100 CALM      30.06R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    FOG       57  56  96 CALM      30.03R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     58  58 100 MISG      29.99R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      54  53  97 CALM        N/A                   
RUTLAND*       FAIR      64  64 100 CALM      29.99R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    65  64  97 CALM      29.99R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      58  57  94 CALM      30.00R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      56  56 100 CALM      30.05R                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       67  65  93 N3        29.97R VSB 1/4          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  57  82 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  61  82 N17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  57  64 NW15        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;243423
FXUS61 KBTV 180902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
502 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of weather is expected across the North 
Country beginning Friday through Saturday. Mainly dry weather 
is expected today with temperatures warming into the mid to 
upper 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Humidity increases 
Thursday night with hot and humid conditions expected on Friday 
and Saturday. Chances for thunderstorms exist both Friday and 
Saturday. Any storms that do develop on Saturday have the 
potential to be strong to severe. More seasonable weather 
returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Thursday...Thursday is still looking like a pleasant
day across the North Country with high pressure mostly in control.
Early morning fog will mix out by sunrise leaving mostly sunny skies
for much of the area. Residual moisture across southern New
England/NY will advect northward on return southerly flow. This will
increase cloud cover mainly across Rutland/Windsor counties.
Elsewhere skies will be mostly sunny with passing high level clouds.

Overall chances for precipitation will be minimal with the best
chances across northern New York. CAM models are in good agreement
on area of showers developing due to surface convergence with the
lake breeze off Lake Ontario and southeasterly flow over the Tug
with storm(s) moving northeastward into southern St Lawrence and
Franklin counties late Thursday afternoon. With real lack of
forcing, and a well defined cap at 700-600mb, vertical development
of these storms should be limited. Any storms that do develop will
dissipate towards sunset with loss of daytime heating.

High pressure will slide eastward Thursday night as southerly flow
increases across the area. PWATs begin to increase during this time
frame which will keep nighttime temperature up. This will be the
first of several nights with low temperatures near 70 for the
Champlain/St Lawrence valley and mid/upper 60s elsewhere. With fast
zonal flow aloft, pieces of shortwave energy will move across the
area Thursday night/Friday. Models indicate decaying convection will
enter our western northern New York zones by Friday morning. This
residual precipitation and cloud cover may limit the initial extent
of daytime heating but expecting good recovery during the daytime
hours with temperatures still warming into the upper 80s to low 90s.
With dew points in the low 70s, heat indices will be in the upper
90s. The chance for an afternoon thunderstorms still looks possible
with plenty of CAPE (~1500-2000 J/kg) and moisture, however shear is
marginal and mid-level cap and dry air will limit both vertical and
areal extent of storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 458 AM EDT Thursday...The main concerns for the end of the week
will be heat and humidity, followed by the chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Very warm and muggy conditions will persist through the short term
as we remain on the periphery of a heat ridge centered to the south
and east. 925mb temps of 24-27C indicate highs will at least
approach 90 across much of the North Country, with the wider valleys
likely topping out in the lower to mid 90s. This combined with
dewpoints in the 70s will make for dangerously hot conditions, with
heat index values around 100F. Heat advisories look likely, but at
this time only a few scattered locations are expected to exceed heat
warning criteria. Have therefore held off on any Excessive Heat
Watch. There won't be a lot of relief Saturday night as we'll have
another muggy night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The other issue for Saturday will be the potential for convection.
This is less certain than the heat concerns, as model guidance is
showing significant differences in placement of precipitation. While
moisture and instability will be abundant (both the NAM and GFS have
CAPE values 2500+ J/kg), 18/00z NAM now has a surface frontal
boundary and upper jet located well to our north. The lack of this
lifting mechanism combined with a substantial cap has resulted in
the NAM producing absolutely no precipitation across the region
Saturday or Saturday night. Meanwhile, the 18/00z GFS has the weak
boundary and upper jet located just north of the international
border Saturday and Saturday night, along with a much less
substantial warm layer aloft. Hence, it develops convection across
the region Saturday afternoon and evening. If the GFS holds
true...deep layer shear of 30-45 kt indicates the potential for
strong to severe convection, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Please stay tuned for later forecasts as
hopefully subsequent model runs will come to a consensus on the
placement of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Thursday...Cooler and drier air will finally return
next week as a cold front will push across the region on Sunday.
High PWATs/CAPEs indicate the potential for showers and
thunderstorms as this front moves through, with central and southern
sections of our forecast area seeing the highest chances due to
favorable timing of the frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid
80s to around 90. The rest of the week will see a return to more
normal temperatures behind the front. The airmass will be drier as
well. However, we'll remain under cyclonic flow as an upper low
pinwheels over eastern Canada, which will keep at least a slight
chance of showers around through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Variable conditions expected across the
area tonight. Patchy BR has developed area wide with mix of 
VFR/IFR and locally LIFR reductions in visibilities and 
ceilings. These reductions will primarily effect KMSS, KSLK, 
KMPV & KRUT. Period of brief MVFR may be possible at KBTV just 
prior to sunrise. Expecting improvement of BR towards 10z as 
drier air works its way in. After 12z all TAF sites should be
VFR with clear skies under SE winds between 5-10 kt and NE 
winds at KMSS between 5-8 kt. 

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...LaRocca

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