This analysis is pretty good and the author an expert but it does depend crucially on his estimate of the death rate. If its only just a bit worse (or no worse) than regular flu then all this activity/crisis is, arguably, a major overreaction. The hard hit people will not really be that hard hit.
It seems to me that everything depends on that death rate estimate, which is still highly uncertain. People are citing very different numbers but that is what you should be keeping your eyes on.
Jonathan Latham, PhD
The Bioscience Resource Project,
Ithaca, NY 14850 USA
Twitter and Facebook: @Biosrp
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