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Expires:202003202000;;771989
FPUS51 KBTV 200723
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020


VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
320 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.TODAY...A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely
with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon. Windy and
much warmer with highs in the lower 60s. South winds 15 to
20 mph, becoming southwest 20 to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers until
midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers after
midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch possible. Windy
with lows around 17. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to
20 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 12. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the
mid 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in
the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs
in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003201100;;780652
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    44  39  82 S17G26    29.82F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    36  33  89 S7        29.92F WCI  30          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  35  92 S7        29.88F WCI  32          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  35  92 MISG      29.90F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    35  34  97 SE7       29.91S FOG     WCI  29  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  40  93 S3        29.87F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    40  39  97 SE14      29.90F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  37  35  92 VRB3      29.97F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    46  43  88 S14G22    29.77F                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   36  36 100 S7        29.85F WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  43  82 W9        29.91F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A SW6         N/A  WCI  31          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A SW46G64     N/A  WCI  30          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  39  87 SE23G37     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  37  87 S28         N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  41 100 SE18        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;776379
FXUS61 KBTV 200850
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
450 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure passing northwest of the region will drag a 
warm front through the North Country this morning with scattered 
rain showers ending shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds and 
additional showers and possible thunderstorms are expected later 
this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will slide through the 
region tonight. Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front with 
some scattered snow showers possible before high pressure builds in 
for the weekend. Dry, sunny and cooler conditions are expected over 
the weekend with rain and snow showers likely on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Friday...Active weather remains on tap for today as
deepening low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will drag a
warm front through the North Country this morning, and a cold front
tonight. Overrunning precipitation associated with the approaching
warm front has been underwhelming this morning with rain showers
currently overspreading the region, but the intensity is far lighter
than previously thought and the bulk of activity will be rapidly
shifting east of the area by sunrise based on radar trends. As the
warm front shifts through the region we still expect temperatures to
continue to warm to well above normal levels with 50s and 60s
already occurring upstream across western NY and PA. Just how warm
it gets will be largely dependent on cloud cover which will be
abundant through the day, but ahead of a pre-frontal trough this
afternoon we should see enough breaks in the cloud cover to support
highs from central VT westward in the low/mid 60s. Meanwhile across
NC/NE VT, more persistent cloud cover and additional showers
streaming southwest to northeast earlier in the afternoon will keep
temps mainly in the 50s.

For this afternoon, the focus turns towards gusty west/southwest
winds and the development of a broken line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms ahead of a pre-frontal trough passage during the 16-
22Z timeframe. Latest forecast soundings continue to indicate the
potential for a strong 925-850mb jet of 50-80kts to mix to the
surface with the highest gusts occurring from the St. Lawrence
Valley to along the western slopes of the Adirondacks, and locally
downsloping into the northern Adirondack coast of Clinton County.
Widespread surface wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range are likely,
with localized gusts up to 55 mph possible in the towns of Malone,
Ellenburg, and Plattsburgh. To the east across VT, gusts should
mainly be in the 25-35 mph range with locally near 40 mph possible
along the Lake Champlain shoreline. SPC maintains a marginal risk of
storms across the area this afternoon which is supported by a few
hundred J/kg of modeled surface based CAPE as well as some elevated
instability along the pre-frontal trough passage. While the lack of
significant instability will likely prevent deep convection, the
presence of the strong low level jet does create the potential for
some isolated stronger wind gusts to be realized within any
convection that develops.

Heading into this evening, showers and embedded thunder will
dissipate as a cold front sweeps into the region with sharply
falling temperatures expected after midnight. Will likely see some
scattered snow showers develop along the frontal passage, but don't
expect to see much more than a dusting of accumulation, which will
mainly be across the northern mountains. While the potential for a
flash freeze exists due to any standing water on area roadways and
temps falling rapidly below freezing, steep low level lapse rates
continue to favor gusty winds of 20-30 mph through much of the night
which may help to dry surfaces enough to mitigate the threat. After
a unseasonably warm day, temps tonight will fall into the teens and
20s by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure begins to build into the region for Saturday with any
lingering mountain clouds in the morning giving way to full sunshine
for the afternoon. Temps will be about 30 degrees cooler than the
previous day though, with highs struggling to warm into the upper
20s north to mid 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Friday...Tranquil weather conditions are expected
through the short-term forecast period with strong (1042mb) sfc
anticyclone cresting across Quebec and northern New England. Mostly
clear and dry conditions will lead to good radiational cooling
Saturday night. Forecast lows are generally in the teens, but
locally in the single digits above zero across the northern
Adirondacks and Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. Light north winds (5-10
mph) during the daylight hours Sunday will keep temperatures near to
slightly below seasonable averages despite abundant sunshine. High
temperatures generally in the low-mid 30s, except locally near 38F
in the valleys of Rutland/Windsor counties. Conditions will feel
rather crisp with dewpoints near zero and minimum afternoon RH
values of 18-25%. PoPs NIL throughout the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Friday...The 00Z NWP guidance suite showing better
consistency this cycle with potential for deepening low pressure
passing south of New England and inside the 40N/70W benchmark around
06Z Tuesday. The 00Z GFS is now the furthest north with the track of
the sfc low, with the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian slightly further south.
After quiet weather Sunday night (lows in the upper teens to low
20s), should see increasing cloud cover during the daylight hrs
Monday. Should see developing rain/snow mix depending on elevation
during Monday afternoon as mid-level trough shifts ewd across NY/PA.
Question will be if period of steady snowfall develops/continues
into Monday night as sfc cyclogenesis occurs off the south coast of
New England. If so, potential exists for periods of accumulating
snowfall and several inches of snow accumulation during Monday
night, especially across central/s-central VT. Should see some
elevational dependence in snowfall accumulation given marginal PBL
temperatures. Anticipate high temperatures in the 35-40F range
during the day Monday, falling a few degrees with onset of
precipitation, and into the mid 20s to low 30s for lows Monday
night.

High pressure returns Tuesday afternoon thru Tuesday night and early
Wednesday with drier conditions. Should see highs 45-50F for Tuesday
and Wednesday before trending into the upper 40s to lower 50s for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Challenging aviation forecast to say the
least for the next 24 hours as ceilings will be very changeable,
but vsby should generally be VFR with periods of MVFR in heavier
showers. MVFR ceilings largely prevail currently with VFR being
reported at KSLK and KPBG, and IFR at KMPV. Expect KSLK and KPBG
to come down to MVFR soon, and KSLK further to IFR lasting
through mid-morning before ceilings lift to a mix of VFR/MVFR
for the remainder of the day. Winds at the surface will 
increase throughout the day with gusts widespread in the 20-30kt
range from the south, and LLWS will be an issue as well as a 
40-50kt low level jet traverses the region. In addition, there 
will be a slight chance for thunderstorms at all terminals this 
afternoon but continue to omit from TAFs at this time due to 
uncertainty of areal coverage. After 00Z, conditions trend to 
VFR with scattered snow showers possible across the higher 
terrain.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this 
     evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff

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