Expires:202008202000;;532426 FPUS51 KBTV 201044 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 642 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 VTZ006-202000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 642 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 .TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. $$ Expires:202008201100;;531913 ASUS41 KBTV 201030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-201100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON PTCLDY 52 49 89 E5 30.06R MONTPELIER PTCLDY 46 45 96 CALM 30.11R MORRISVILLE FOG 47 46 97 CALM 30.07S VSB 3/4 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 48 47 96 MISG 30.06R LYNDONVILLE* FOG 44 43 97 CALM 30.08R VSB 3/4 RUTLAND* FOG 48 48 100 SE3 30.08S VSB 1/4 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 48 47 96 CALM 30.07S FOG HIGHGATE* FAIR 47 44 90 CALM 30.06R NEWPORT* FAIR 46 43 87 SW6 30.07R BENNINGTON CLEAR 48 46 93 CALM 30.08R ISLAND POND* N/A 43 N/A N/A E2 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 41 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 46 N/A N/A N1 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 46 N/A N/A W29 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 61 52 72 W7 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 54 77 W12 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 55 94 SE5 N/A $$ Expires:No;;524784 FXUS61 KBTV 200744 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool this morning with valley fog gradually lifting. Forecast conditions will be pleasant this afternoon with highs in the 70s. For the weekend, a series of disturbances will slide east across the region. The likelihood of precipitation has increased as conditions appear more favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest chances along the International Border. Several weak systems are forecast to quickly move across the North Country, which will mean our weather will cycle between drier weather followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms for start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...Valley fog continues to slowly expand as we progress further into the night. Fog will lift with the sun, and we will see passing high clouds from a disturbance to our west. Mid- level ridging beneath a longwave upper trough means we are in for another perfect late August day in the North Country. Strong radiational cooling this evening with light winds and mostly clear skies has resulted in morning temperatures below seasonal norms. Saranac Lake is down to a notable 37, but needs to get down to 30 if they want to break a daily record. Elsewhere, temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Outside of Lake Champlain, most will wake up to lows in the 40s. Temperatures warm nicely into the 70s this afternoon with light winds. As we progress towards the evening hours, clouds increase as a subtle shortwave spreads eastward. A mid-level frontal axis will drape itself across our area. It appears this feature will now position itself a bit further south and closer to our forecast area. Thus, have raised PoPs and sky cover upwards for Thursday night into Friday, especially along the International Border. This area of precipitation will gradually sag southwards with during the day Friday. Area of cloudiness and precipitation across the International Border will establish a thermal boundary across our region (highs in the mid 80s in our southern valleys, and mid 70s along the International Border), providing a focus for showers and storms in the afternoon stretching from the Adirondacks eastwards across Chittenden/Addison County and into Orange/Caledonia Counties of Vermont. Modest destabilization takes place with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, though not entirely surface based with a warm layer just above the surface. Additionally, relatively fast flow along the mid- level boundary will result in about 30 knots of 0-3km shear. It will be difficult to mix winds down to the surface due to the poor low- level lapse rates, but if any organization develops, we could see a few storms capable of gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts highest north of Rutland/Windsor Counties where 0.05"-0.25" with locally higher amounts are possible. Across Rutland/Windsor Counties, only a few hundredths are expected. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...The end of the week continues to look unsettled as a frontal boundary will be wavering over the North Country through this period. While there are still differences in the details, models seem to have come into consensus that the front will move south out of Canada Friday evening/night, then remain draped over the region into Saturday before perhaps lifting back north late in the day Saturday and eventually moving back north of the international border. Any showers and thunderstorms lingering from Friday afternoon will wane Friday night as best moisture shifts east. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday as increasing moisture interacts with the frontal boundary. While the exact placement/strength of convection will rely on where the front sets up and/or moves north, current indications are that there will be decent instability, with 1000+ J/kg possible by Saturday afternoon. Shear looks good as well, though the NAM is a bit more generous (40-50 kt) than the GFS (20 to 40 kt). With a slight warm layer between 850-900 mb though, convection could well be capped or elevated in nature. Regardless, the front will lift north overnight Saturday night, allowing any lingering activity to come to an end. Saturday's high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in most locations, while overnight lows both Friday and Saturday nights will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...Weak low pressure will skirt by to our north and eventually east on Sunday, dragging a cold front along in its wake. This will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms across the North Country during the day, then drier conditions work in for Sunday night and Monday. Things are a bit more uncertain thereafter; we become positioned under west to northwest flow, with disturbances to stream through and over our area through mid week. As is usual, models have a hard time agreeing on the time/strength of these upper shortwaves, so have stayed with a lot of slight chance/chance wording through the remainder of the week. After a warm day on Sunday, things look to cool down thereafter with temperatures remaining closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Current conditions are mostly VFR, with fog at KRUT and KMSS causing MVFR to intermittent LIFR. Anticipate fog to expand into KSLK and KMPV within the next couple hours with periods of LIFR possible, especially at KMPV. High clouds streaming in from the west may put an early end to fog across KSLK/KMSS/KRUT or could result in fluctuations in visibilities generally between 1/2SM and 5SM. Calm to light, variable winds through 13Z, with terrain driven southeasterly winds at KRUT tonight. After 13Z, winds are expected to begin transitioning to southwesterly during the day at 4 to 7 knots. Also after 13Z, increasing mid-level clouds around 7000-12000 ft agl are expected. A few scattered showers will be near KMSS after 03Z Friday, while the rest of the region will remain dry. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Haynes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html