Expires:202009092000;;542908 FPUS51 KBTV 090648 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 VTZ006-092000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 .TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Less humid with lows in the mid 40s. North winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. .SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. $$ Expires:202009091100;;550700 ASUS41 KBTV 091030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED SEP 09 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-091100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON PTCLDY 59 55 87 S3 30.23S MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 62 61 96 CALM 30.29R VSB 1/2 MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.25R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 59 55 87 MISG 30.24R LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 56 55 95 CALM 30.28R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 61 61 100 E5 30.28R FOG SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 59 59 100 CALM 30.27S FOG HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 57 54 90 CALM 30.25R NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 88 CALM 30.26S BENNINGTON PTCLDY 58 56 93 S3 30.26R ISLAND POND* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 59 57 94 W2 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 57 88 W1 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 61 59 94 SE2 N/A $$ Expires:No;;542846 FXUS61 KBTV 090645 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain draped across northern counties through tonight with a few showers possible. The front and scattered showers will finally push south of the area later Thursday into Thursday night with slightly cooler air arriving for Friday into Saturday. The only chance of more significant, widespread rainfall occurs on Sunday when another surface front pushes through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Mainly a cloud and temperature forecast challenge for the next 24 hours as a semi-stationary front remains draped across northern counties/intl. border. Decent baroclinicity exists across the boundary with cooler highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s far north/northwest and milder upper 70s to lower 80s expected today. That said, dynamical upper support remains rather weak so probabilities of more widespread, organized rainfall will be limited. Both global and hi-res models do continue to show some slight moisture pooling interacting with marginal instability in the boundary layer along and just south of the front from the Adirondacks northeast into portions of northwestern VT by mid to late afternoon. As such I've maintained chance level PoPs in these areas for scattered showers and perhaps a non-severe storm or two generally in the 2 to 7 pm time frame. Variable clouds then continue tonight, especially north in proximity to the boundary, which will likely bleed south through the Champlain Valley once again owing to weak pressure-driven channeling effects. Mainly dry weather continues with perhaps a few passing light showers along the international border. Low temperatures in the 50s to around 60. The front finally begins to shift south by Thursday afternoon in response to a longwave trough passing off to our north through southern and central Canada. Dynamical forcing remains rather unimpressive and given a lack of sfc-based instability only chance PoPs for scattered showers will be offered with QPF totals mainly under a quarter inch. High temperatures again reflect expected position of the boundary by mid-afternoon with cooler values (mid 60s to lower 70s) far north, and upper 70s to lower 80s central/south. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...The quasi-stationary cold front will finally push through the North Country through the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning. A few rain showers along the frontal boundary will be possible but moisture will be waning quickly so the overall coverage should be pretty minimal. High pressure will build into the North Country during the day on Friday with a noticeably colder air mass descending across the region. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to warm into the lower to upper 60s under mostly clear skies and light winds. Friday night continues to look like one of the colder nights as of late with widespread temps in the 40s with a few locations in the northern Adirondacks and northeaster Vermont dropping into the mid to upper 30s. It wouldn't be surprising to see a few patches of frost in the coldest locations but a widespread frost is not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface high pressure will crest across the North Country during the day on Saturday. Forecast soundings continue to show a plethora of dry air associated with this high pressure which makes it hard to think there will be much, if any, cloud cover during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees warmer on Saturday compared to Friday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Cloud cover will quickly stream back into the region Saturday night ahead of an amplifying trough across the Midwest. A potent upper level shortwave will help the development of a surface low across the Great Lakes early Sunday morning which will help drive a cold front through the region Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement with this scenario and with the increased confidence, we have increased PoPs to 60-70% during the day on Sunday. In addition to the rainfall, strong gradient winds are expected to develop ahead of the front as the high pressure departs to the east and the front approaches from the west. Looking at the GFS model soundings for Sunday afternoon, we could see 30-40 mph gusts across Lake Champlain with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere. Rainfall associated with the front on Sunday should exit the region by sunrise Monday morning with another high pressure system expected to quickly build across the North Country. The air mass behind this cold front looks cooler than the one on Friday and temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday appear to only warm into the low to mid 60s. Monday night will be something to watch as we could see temps drop into the low to mid 30s across the Northern Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont. Areas of frost and a possibility of a freeze will be possible but there will be plenty of time to see how this air mass evolves as it approaches the North Country. Temperatures will then warm back to seasonal normals for Wednesday as we start to see return flow across the region. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...A complex forecast over the next 24 hours in regard to cigs with stationary front lingering across the area. Generally MVFR cigs are expected through 12Z for all terminals except for KRUT and KMPV where IFR/LIFR in low stratus and/or fog will be more prevalent. A few showers may skirt northern terminals but mainly dry wx is expected. After 12Z MVFR/IFR lifts to a mix of VFR/MVFR with a few showers possible at KSLK/KPBG and KBTV in the 18-00Z time frame. After 00Z cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR or IFR should be the rule, depending on terminal. IFR should be most prevalent at KSLK. Winds light and variable or light northerly less than 10 kts through the period. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html