Expires:202010092000;;014731 FPUS51 KBTV 090706 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 302 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 VTZ006-092000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 302 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 .TODAY...Patchy frost this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming south 15 to 20 mph after midnight. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Much warmer with highs around 70. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds around 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. .COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. $$ Expires:202010091100;;023464 ASUS41 KBTV 091030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-091100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLEAR 31 28 89 CALM 30.17R MONTPELIER CLEAR 27 24 89 S3 30.16R MORRISVILLE CLEAR 26 24 92 CALM 30.16R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 28 25 88 MISG 30.12R LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 27 25 93 CALM 30.13R MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 30 28 93 CALM 30.17S RUTLAND* CLEAR 30 29 96 SE6 30.18R WCI 24 SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 29 27 92 CALM 30.18R HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 31 28 90 CALM 30.15S NEWPORT* FAIR 28 25 86 CALM 30.13R BENNINGTON CLEAR 31 28 89 CALM 30.17R ISLAND POND* N/A 25 N/A N/A W1 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 23 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 27 N/A N/A W32 N/A WCI 10 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 45 34 65 W9G15 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 45 30 57 W9 N/A $$ Expires:No;;016234 FXUS61 KBTV 090738 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 338 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Sunny skies and cool temperatures in the 50s today. Then becoming much warmer on Saturday with showers and a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts. A cold frontal passage will send temperatures back into the 50s on Sunday with drying conditions. Temperatures rebound into the 60s early next week along with renewed chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday...Tranquil weather expected for today. The forecast for patchy frost still looks good given most of our forecast area is in the upper 20s to mid 30s. It'll be one of those mornings to get out the door a minute or two early to scrap off the frost from your car, if unsheltered. That's about as impactful as the weather gets today. Light west to northwest winds become southwesterly as surface high pressure slides east. Moderation of the cold air mass in place will allow our forecast area to warm into the 50s with some sites hitting 60 F. Towards evening, abundant high clouds should stream across our forecast area as strong mid- level warming starts to take place. There could be some virga on radar with the cresting upper ridge, but mid-level dry air should prevent any activity from reaching the surface. Clouds should keep low temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s overnight into Saturday morning. Mountain summits could be warmer than several areas given the strength of this inversion (~14 C at 4000 ft). Saturday will be a bit more active. Impressive, but not record- breaking, October warmth is expected as high temperatures climb into the lower 70s and dewpoints rise into the mid 50s across our forecast area. We will see increasing winds aloft with an 850mb jet increasing to 50 to 55 knots. The good news is that an inversion aloft should prevent this from efficiently mixing to the surface. It should still be breezy, especially with channeling south to southwest winds through the valleys. We will likely look at another Lake Wind Advisory for Saturday. For the precipitation chances, we could see a couple rounds of precipitation. Late morning into the early afternoon, we should see a tongue of moisture advect into our area along with warm advection that will produce some showers. It will not be a wash out day, and the area of showers will likely be narrow. Late afternoon into the evening hours a potent cold front will cross the International Border. Warm temperatures and gradual cooling temperatures in the mid-levels should allow for 250-500 J/kg of CAPE to develop in a high-shear environment. Better dynamics and vorticity will be to our north, which means cooling associated with vort will not be timed as well as occurred Wednesday. However, the distinct wind shift with this front and the concentrated frontogenetic forcing from the thermal contrast produced from Saturday afternoon's warming should allow for a sharp, narrow band of enhanced precipitation with embedded thunderstorms. This thin band will be capable of producing strong, gusty winds as it crosses the International Border. The duration of impacts will not be long owing to its small size. Thereafter, loss of daytime heating will cause this band to weaken as the front pushes further south into the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. SPC has most of our forecast area in a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) outlook for localized (5% chance) damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday...The front will continue to push southward through the region Saturday evening. Drier and colder air will follow, and this will bring any lingering showers or thunderstorms to an end by midnight. Clouds will be slower to dissipate, particularly over the higher terrain, as cold air advection takes hold. It will be a cold night, particularly in northern sections, with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the mid and upper 40s in the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valleys. Clearing skies are expected for Sunday as high pressure builds over eastern New England. Winds will diminish as well, but it will still be a colder-than-normal day with highs only In the lower to mid 50s in most locations. The high moves eastward Sunday night, allowing southeast flow to develop. This will begin to lift moisture back towards the North Country, though it will remain dry overnight. Lows will be on the chilly side once again, mainly in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday...The threat for showers returns late Monday through Tuesday with a cold frontal passage. As has been the case with the previous fronts, a potent 850mb jet will proceed the actual passage, making for breezy conditions Monday night into Tuesday. This system and the associated upper trough swinging through the Plains will interact with moisture leftover from the remnants of Hurricane Delta, so anticipate fairly widespread showers during much of the day Tuesday. The front and upper shortwave sweep through Tuesday night, and expect at least a short break in the precipitation for Wednesday. Model solutions diverge thereafter, but consensus shows deepening low moving up through the Great Lakes along or just west of the St Lawrence Valley Thursday, which would bring another round of warmer, windy, and potentially showery conditions late in the week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Currently VFR at all sites with mid clouds at 5000-7000ft agl extending southeast near KMSS to KRUT. These clouds should clear the area around 09Z leaving mostly clears skies. Patchy frost expected tonight. Winds light and variable tonight, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon at 5 to 8 knots. High clouds at or above 10000ft begin to stream in from the west after 21Z. Winds increase at 2000ft agl after 00Z. Southwesterly LLWS at 35 to 45 knots is likely at all TAF sites by 03Z and continue beyond 06Z as strong area of low pressure moves east across Canada. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Columbus Day: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-005. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Haynes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html