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Expires:202010092000;;014731
FPUS51 KBTV 090706
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020


VTZ006-092000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
302 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020

.TODAY...Patchy frost this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the
lower 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph, becoming south 15 to 20 mph after midnight. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the morning,
then mostly cloudy with showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Much warmer with highs around 70.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202010091100;;023464
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     31  28  89 CALM      30.17R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     27  24  89 S3        30.16R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     26  24  92 CALM      30.16R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  25  88 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      27  25  93 CALM      30.13R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      30  28  93 CALM      30.17S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     30  29  96 SE6       30.18R WCI  24          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     29  27  92 CALM      30.18R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    31  28  90 CALM      30.15S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      28  25  86 CALM      30.13R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     31  28  89 CALM      30.17R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A W32         N/A  WCI  10          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  34  65 W9G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  30  57 W9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;016234
FXUS61 KBTV 090738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny skies and cool temperatures in the 50s today. Then
becoming much warmer on Saturday with showers and a few
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. A few storms will be
capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts. A
cold frontal passage will send temperatures back into the 50s on
Sunday with drying conditions. Temperatures rebound into the 
60s early next week along with renewed chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...Tranquil weather expected for today. The
forecast for patchy frost still looks good given most of our
forecast area is in the upper 20s to mid 30s. It'll be one of those
mornings to get out the door a minute or two early to scrap off
the frost from your car, if unsheltered. That's about as 
impactful as the weather gets today. Light west to northwest 
winds become southwesterly as surface high pressure slides east.
Moderation of the cold air mass in place will allow our 
forecast area to warm into the 50s with some sites hitting 60 F.
Towards evening, abundant high clouds should stream across our 
forecast area as strong mid- level warming starts to take place.
There could be some virga on radar with the cresting upper 
ridge, but mid-level dry air should prevent any activity from 
reaching the surface. Clouds should keep low temperatures in the
40s to lower 50s overnight into Saturday morning. Mountain 
summits could be warmer than several areas given the strength of
this inversion (~14 C at 4000 ft).

Saturday will be a bit more active. Impressive, but not record-
breaking, October warmth is expected as high temperatures climb into
the lower 70s and dewpoints rise into the mid 50s across our
forecast area. We will see increasing winds aloft with an 850mb jet
increasing to 50 to 55 knots. The good news is that an inversion
aloft should prevent this from efficiently mixing to the surface. It
should still be breezy, especially with channeling south to southwest
winds through the valleys. We will likely look at another Lake Wind
Advisory for Saturday.

For the precipitation chances, we could see a couple rounds of
precipitation. Late morning into the early afternoon, we should see
a tongue of moisture advect into our area along with warm advection
that will produce some showers. It will not be a wash out day, and
the area of showers will likely be narrow. Late afternoon into the
evening hours a potent cold front will cross the International
Border. Warm temperatures and gradual cooling temperatures in the
mid-levels should allow for 250-500 J/kg of CAPE to develop in a
high-shear environment. Better dynamics and vorticity will be to our
north, which means cooling associated with vort will not be timed as
well as occurred Wednesday. However, the distinct wind shift with
this front and the concentrated frontogenetic forcing from the
thermal contrast produced from Saturday afternoon's warming should
allow for a sharp, narrow band of enhanced precipitation with 
embedded thunderstorms. This thin band will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds as it crosses the International Border. The
duration of impacts will not be long owing to its small size. 
Thereafter, loss of daytime heating will cause this band to weaken
as the front pushes further south into the Adirondacks and 
south-central Vermont. SPC has most of our forecast area in a marginal
risk (Level 1 of 5) outlook for localized (5% chance) damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...The front will continue to push southward
through the region Saturday evening. Drier and colder air will
follow, and this will bring any lingering showers or thunderstorms
to an end by midnight. Clouds will be slower to dissipate,
particularly over the higher terrain, as cold air advection takes
hold. It will be a cold night, particularly in northern sections,
with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom to the mid and upper 40s in the Champlain and
lower Connecticut Valleys. Clearing skies are expected for Sunday as
high pressure builds over eastern New England. Winds will diminish
as well, but it will still be a colder-than-normal day with highs
only In the lower to mid 50s in most locations. The high moves
eastward Sunday night, allowing southeast flow to develop. This will
begin to lift moisture back towards the North Country, though it
will remain dry overnight. Lows will be on the chilly side once
again, mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...The threat for showers returns late Monday
through Tuesday with a cold frontal passage. As has been the case
with the previous fronts, a potent 850mb jet will proceed the actual
passage, making for breezy conditions Monday night into Tuesday.
This system and the associated upper trough swinging through the
Plains will interact with moisture leftover from the remnants of
Hurricane Delta, so anticipate fairly widespread showers during much
of the day Tuesday. The front and upper shortwave sweep through
Tuesday night, and expect at least a short break in the
precipitation for Wednesday. Model solutions diverge thereafter, but
consensus shows deepening low moving up through the Great Lakes
along or just west of the St Lawrence Valley Thursday, which would
bring another round of warmer, windy, and potentially showery
conditions late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Currently VFR at all sites with mid
clouds at 5000-7000ft agl extending southeast near KMSS to KRUT.
These clouds should clear the area around 09Z leaving mostly
clears skies. Patchy frost expected tonight. Winds light and 
variable tonight, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon at 5 
to 8 knots. High clouds at or above 10000ft begin to stream in 
from the west after 21Z. Winds increase at 2000ft agl after 
00Z. Southwesterly LLWS at 35 to 45 knots is likely at all TAF 
sites by 03Z and continue beyond 06Z as strong area of low
pressure moves east across Canada.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-005.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes

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