Expires:202010102000;;074257 FPUS51 KBTV 101048 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 VTZ006-102000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 646 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .TODAY...Partly sunny. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon. Warmer with highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds until midnight. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. .COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s. $$ Expires:202010101100;;073781 ASUS41 KBTV 101030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-101100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 61 42 49 S22G29 29.76F MONTPELIER CLOUDY 59 41 51 S13 29.83F MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 60 42 51 S12 29.76F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 54 42 64 MISG 29.79F LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 50 41 71 SE6 29.82F MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 58 42 55 S14G22 29.85F RUTLAND* MOCLDY 60 42 51 E6 29.89S SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 40 37 89 CALM 29.91F HIGHGATE* FAIR 61 40 46 S13G23 29.71S NEWPORT* MOCLDY 52 39 62 S10 29.75F BENNINGTON CLEAR 45 40 82 VRB3 29.94S ISLAND POND* N/A 45 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 39 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 52 N/A N/A W40 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 61 48 63 S22G36 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 50 72 S32 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 46 67 S21 N/A $$ Expires:No;;067066 FXUS61 KBTV 100805 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy today with temperatures warming near to above 70 degrees across the North Country. A strong cold front will impact our area this afternoon and provide a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will be capable of strong, gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and brief, heavy downpours. Drier and cooler conditions return for Sunday and Monday, with warmer temperatures and on and off chances for showers through the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Model trends have continued to depict an active day for our forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center places our region in a slight severe risk outlook (Level 2 of 5), indicating the potential for short-lived, scattered strong to severe storms. Deep-layer warm advection is ongoing as upper level ridging continues eastwards. Temperatures at this stage of the night are remaining steady or warming some. Over our area will be a bit of squeeze play between surface high pressure moving off the Mid- Atlantic Coast and a northern stream area of low pressure moving into Quebec Province. Strong pressure gradients will produce 50 to 60 knot 850mb winds. Fortunately, poor low-level lapse rates should keep these winds from efficiently mixing to the surface, but it will be a breezy day with steady south winds and 20 to 30 mph gusts, perhaps up to 35 mph over eastern mountain slopes and through the valleys. The strong LLJ will help to bring in anomalous warm with a source air mass from Texas. This will send temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s across our forecast area. Towards noon, convection will begin to blossom as heights begin to fall with a prefrontal trough over the forecast area. Instability of around 250-750 (maybe even a few spots approaching 1000 J/kg) will develop. Notable is the strong frontogenesis, with a strong baroclinic zone setting up across our forecast area between the anomalous warmth and the potent cold front. Additionally, mid-levels are expected to be rather unstable with 700-500 hPa lapse rates around 8 C/km. Despite the better vorticity and better low-level convergence/upper divergence positioned to our north, along with poor low-level lapse rates, convective allowing models agree on the development of vigorous convection this afternoon. 0-6km shear will be upwards of 50kts across our forecast area, so this convection should try to organize. Interestingly, the experimental FV3 CAM depicts some discrete cellular activity. Perhaps, some elevated supercells will be possible at the early stages of today's convection. 2-5km updraft helicity values will approach 75 m2/s2, indicating the potential for rotating updrafts and supercell composite numbers indicate this potential as well. So some hail can't be discounted if we see some elevated supercells. Nor can a tornado be ruled out, but the poor low-level lapse rates make this potential very low. Towards 3-5 PM, we should see showers and thunderstorms organize into clusters or form a QLCS. There could be a few bowing segments possible as well, though as SPC has noted, parallel flow to convection should limit bowing potential. The main threat with the QLCS will be strong to locally damaging winds up to 60 mph. The QLCS should then push southwards during the evening hours and gradually decay after 5 PM with loss of daytime heating. There should be one last line of gusty showers that develops associated with the wind shift of the cold front around 8 PM or so, and then our atmosphere rapidly dries. So elevated precipitation is not expected to last. Temperatures should tumble into the mid 30s to low 40s as cold air advects across the region behind the front. Some clouds are expected to linger behind the front, but going into Sunday afternoon, clouds should diminish. This will give way to a nice fall day with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and clear, blue skies. Light, north winds at 5 to 10 mph are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 403 AM EDT Saturday...Complex scenario setting up for the start of the work week as the remnants of Hurricane Delta move northward up the Appalachians and an upper trough/surface front swing across the northern Plains. High pressure moving out over eastern ME into the Maritimes will keep the bulk of Delta's remnants to our south, but expect increasing moisture through the short term period. This starts Sunday night as the low-level flow turns to the east and southeast between the retreating high and Delta's remnant low. Meanwhile, west to southwest winds continue aloft. This makes for a tricky temperature forecast Sunday night as a temperature inversion sets up. Moisture increases overnight as well, as does the southeast flow. The question is how quickly temperatures can drop off Sunday evening before clouds and winds increase, limiting further cooling and/or perhaps even allowing some warming toward daybreak. Note that the MOS guidance is going very chilly with Sunday night/Monday morning lows - the NAM MOS has a low of 16 at KSLK - but feel that this is likely overdone. Still, have lowered overnight minimums just a bit from the previous forecast, ranging from the upper 20s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the mid and upper 30s in the Champlain and southern St Lawrence Valleys. With dry air in place, current thinking is the overnight hours will remain precipitation- free. For Monday and Monday night...moisture continues to increase with rain spreading northward through the day. Southeast winds will strengthen under the southwest flow aloft, and we're starting to see indications that there could be gusty downslope winds on the western side of the Greens as is favored under this sort of regime. The southeast flow will likely keep areas east of the Greens on the cooler side as well, with some spots likely struggling to reach 50. Elsewhere, highs in the mid and upper 50s can be expected. The steadiest/heaviest rain will occur over central/southern portions of our forecast area. PWATs surge late in the day and overnight Monday night ahead of the digging upper shortwave moving in from the west, expanding rain from west to east overnight. Breezy south to southeast winds will persist through at least the first part of the night. Lows will be mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 403 AM EDT Saturday...The aforementioned cold front will push through on Tuesday, briefly ushering in drier air and bringing the steady rain to an end from west to east during the afternoon. We will continue to see unsettled weather through the remainder of the week however. High pressure will move to our south while an upper low spins over the Prairie Provinces and eventually out over Hudson Bay/northern Quebec. This will keep us under west to southwest flow through the week as we remain on the low's periphery, with a series of upper shortwaves quickly scooting around the low. As is usually the case, models are showing differences in the exact timing/placement/magnitude of these waves, but overall expect rounds of showers through the week, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Main aviation concern for the near term will be continued low-level wind shear as a 40-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet will remain overhead tonight, so have continued with mention of low-level wind shear at all TAF sites tonight. The core of the low-level jet will remain in place through 15Z, but will start to gradually weaken after 10Z. Surface winds will gradually increase overnight, with south winds as 7 to 16 knots and gusting to 17 to 25 knots. After 15Z, winds should increase a bit more through 19Z before a cold front develops. Sky conditions will remain VFR through the night with just some sct/bkn mid and upper-level clouds. VFR skies will eventually trend to MVFR with isolated IFR after 18Z as showers and thunderstorms develop over the forecast area. A couple bands are expected, but the most likely band of storms should develop near KSLK and extend northeast towards KBTV around 18Z, and then sag south. This should exit KRUT around 00Z. Storms will be capable of strong, gusty winds and small hail. Heavy rain could reduce visibilities to 2SM - 4SM in storms. All activity should come to a close around 01Z- 03Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecast south winds have materialized with 15-25 knot sustained south to southeast winds and gusts of 25 to 30 knots. These winds. Waves will build from 1 to 3 feet this evening to 4 to 6 feet overnight. Southerly winds will peak Saturday morning with gusts to 35 knots, diminishing to 25 knots in the afternoon. In addition to the windy conditions expected tomorrow, some thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. These thunderstorms could contain locally strong winds of variable directions and frequent cloud- to- ground lightning. Please stay weather aware if planning to head to the Lake Saturday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Duell/Haynes MARINE...Duell - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html