Expires:202010082000;;968655 FPUS51 KBTV 080717 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 VTZ006-082000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 .TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers this morning. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Patchy frost after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Patchy frost in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. West winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Much warmer with highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. .COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs around 60. $$ Expires:202010081100;;976716 ASUS41 KBTV 081030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-081100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 47 34 60 NW17G25 29.82R MONTPELIER CLOUDY 42 37 82 NW17G24 29.80R MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 44 37 76 NW14G23 29.79R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 45 40 82 MISG 29.71R LYNDONVILLE* DRIZZLE 42 39 90 W10G18 29.74R MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 44 34 69 N8 29.84R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 45 35 68 W14G22 29.81R SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 48 34 58 W14G24 29.77R HIGHGATE* FAIR 45 34 66 NW3 29.82R NEWPORT* CLOUDY 43 37 81 NW7 29.77R BENNINGTON MOCLDY 44 34 67 W7 29.84R ISLAND POND* N/A 41 N/A N/A NW14 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 41 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 41 N/A N/A NW2 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 32 N/A N/A W44G55 N/A WCI 15 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 48 39 71 W20G32 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 48 39 71 NW21 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 34 57 W10G24 N/A $$ Expires:No;;970030 FXUS61 KBTV 080755 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 355 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and windy today, with skies gradually clearing. High temperatures will struggle to rise above 50 across the North Country. Winds abate later this evening. Overnight, radiational cooling will send cold hollows into the 20s and many valley locations will experience low temperatures near to slightly above freezing. This should allow patchy frost to develop overnight. Friday will be mainly dry as high pressure builds in with temperatures beginning to warm over the weekend. A cold front will bring renewed chances for showers late Saturday afternoon and evening. Then, weather conditions become cooler and drier to start the new week, with rain chances increasing for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Brisk northwest flow continues this evening. A colder air mass is being advected in, with the coldest and driest of it arriving this afternoon. As a result, we will see temperatures struggle to climb today with highs in the 40s across the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom and lower to mid 50s across the valleys. It's that point in the season where moisture trapped beneath a mid-level inversion and creates stable wave clouds, which is apparent at this time in nighttime microphysics RGBs on satellite. The question is how long does it take for these clouds to scour out. Have generally gone slightly slower than high res guidance and think by noon, we should see more sun than not. Expect northwest 10 to 15 mph winds and gusts of 20 to 25 mph to persist today with modestly tight pressure gradients in place until surface high pressure slides in later this evening. That will set the stage for some frost to develop overnight. Light winds and approaching surface high pressure should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling. Forecast lows should be in the 20s to near 30 in cold hollows and lower to mid 30s in the valleys. Near Lake Champlain, it should be mid to upper 30s. Friday looks like a nice fall day with seasonable temperatures in the 50s (a couple degrees below normal) and light winds. Skies should be mostly clear much of the day, and then mid to high clouds should start streaming in from the west later in the evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure will push eastward from the Great Lakes, across Ontario and into Quebec Friday night and Saturday. Although the low itself will remain well north of the international border, it will allow a couple of fronts to move across the North Country, resulting in the chances for showers for the end of the week. The first front will be a warm front and it will lift northward Friday night into early Saturday. The best dynamics and moisture will remain north of our region, but can't rule out a few stray showers overnight along the international border. Better chances for showers will arrive Saturday as a cold front crosses the region from north to south in the afternoon- evening hours. Saturday will see mild conditions; 925mb temps will reach 15-17C, resulting in high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. These warming temperatures will allow for steepening lapse rates, and model guidance is indicating surface- based CAPE of 500 J/kg to perhaps as much as 800 J/kg will exist by mid-late afternoon. Hence, scattered showers with possible thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, especially in northern areas. The cold front will pass through by late Saturday evening, with cooler and drier air following in its wake. Precipitation will come to an end overnight, and temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak. Other than the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the other concern for this time frame will be breezy conditions. A strong 850mb 45-50kt jet will move overhead, and with the aforementioned steepening lapse rates, expect some of this will mix down to the surface. And should any convection develop, stronger cores could well mix these higher winds down as well. Indeed, note the latest Day 3 thunderstorm outlook from SPC has included much of our region in a Marginal Risk. The main concern would be strong winds, but small hail would be possible as well with any of the more robust cells. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...Drier and cooler conditions will prevail through the first part of next week as high pressure builds over eastern New England. As the ridge moves off to our east, an upper trough will dig across the Northern Plains, shunting the remnants of Hurricane Delta northeastward. Although the bulk of these remnants look to remain to our south, moisture from the system will stream northward ahead of the deepening trough and associated surface front. There has been a fair amount of model-to-model and run-to-run differences in the details of this upper trough/front, but at least for now the 08/00z runs seem to indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be Monday night into Tuesday, with the actual frontal passage late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure briefly builds in Wednesday. Temperatures will likely show a warming trend prior to the frontal passage, reaching above normal by Tuesday-Wednesday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Breezy northwest winds ongoing, with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings at this time. We will see steady northwest to west-northwest winds at 8-15 knots sustained and with gusts of 16-25 knots for the next 12 to 18 hours. We should see MVFR ceilings at KBTV/KMPV/KSLK last through about 09Z-10Z before clouds lift and skies will trend mostly clear beyond 16Z. After 22Z, we will see winds steadily decline to around 5 knots and remain northwesterly. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 to near 35 knots is ongoing over Lake Champlain. While the overhead low- level jet is decreasing, cooler temperatures aloft over the warm lake waters should promote steady mixing overnight. So only a gradual decrease in wind speeds is expected this evening across Lake Champlain. Based on the latest guidance, it looks like we should see winds fall below lake wind advisory criteria around sunrise, but remaining elevated at 10 to 20 knots into the afternoon before a more steady decrease this evening. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Haynes MARINE...Team BTV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html