Print

Print


Expires:202010082000;;968655
FPUS51 KBTV 080717
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020


VTZ006-082000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers this
morning. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Patchy
frost after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Patchy frost in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the
lower 50s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
15 to 20 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Much warmer with highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60. 

$$


Expires:202010081100;;976716
ASUS41 KBTV 081030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    47  34  60 NW17G25   29.82R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    42  37  82 NW17G24   29.80R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    44  37  76 NW14G23   29.79R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  40  82 MISG      29.71R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   42  39  90 W10G18    29.74R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    44  34  69 N8        29.84R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    45  35  68 W14G22    29.81R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    48  34  58 W14G24    29.77R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      45  34  66 NW3       29.82R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    43  37  81 NW7       29.77R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    44  34  67 W7        29.84R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A NW14        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A W44G55      N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  39  71 W20G32      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  39  71 NW21        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  34  57 W10G24      N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;970030
FXUS61 KBTV 080755
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and windy today, with skies gradually clearing. High 
temperatures will struggle to rise above 50 across the North 
Country. Winds abate later this evening. Overnight, radiational
cooling will send cold hollows into the 20s and many valley 
locations will experience low temperatures near to slightly 
above freezing. This should allow patchy frost to develop
overnight. Friday will be mainly dry as high pressure builds in
with temperatures beginning to warm over the weekend. A cold 
front will bring renewed chances for showers late Saturday 
afternoon and evening. Then, weather conditions become cooler 
and drier to start the new week, with rain chances increasing 
for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Brisk northwest flow continues this
evening. A colder air mass is being advected in, with the coldest
and driest of it arriving this afternoon. As a result, we will 
see temperatures struggle to climb today with highs in the 40s 
across the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom and lower to mid 50s 
across the valleys. It's that point in the season where moisture
trapped beneath a mid-level inversion and creates stable wave 
clouds, which is apparent at this time in nighttime microphysics
RGBs on satellite. The question is how long does it take for 
these clouds to scour out. Have generally gone slightly slower 
than high res guidance and think by noon, we should see more sun
than not. Expect northwest 10 to 15 mph winds and gusts of 20 
to 25 mph to persist today with modestly tight pressure gradients
in place until surface high pressure slides in later this 
evening. That will set the stage for some frost to develop 
overnight. Light winds and approaching surface high pressure 
should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling. Forecast 
lows should be in the 20s to near 30 in cold hollows and lower 
to mid 30s in the valleys. Near Lake Champlain, it should be mid
to upper 30s.

Friday looks like a nice fall day with seasonable temperatures in
the 50s (a couple degrees below normal) and light winds. Skies
should be mostly clear much of the day, and then mid to high 
clouds should start streaming in from the west later in the 
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure will push eastward from the
Great Lakes, across Ontario and into Quebec Friday night and
Saturday. Although the low itself will remain well north of the
international border, it will allow a couple of fronts to move
across the North Country, resulting in the chances for showers for
the end of the week. The first front will be a warm front and it
will lift northward Friday night into early Saturday. The best
dynamics and moisture will remain north of our region, but can't
rule out a few stray showers overnight along the international
border. Better chances for showers will arrive Saturday as a cold
front crosses the region from north to south in the afternoon-
evening hours. Saturday will see mild conditions; 925mb temps will
reach 15-17C, resulting in high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
70s. These warming temperatures will allow for steepening lapse
rates, and model guidance is indicating surface- based CAPE of 500
J/kg to perhaps as much as 800 J/kg will exist by mid-late
afternoon. Hence, scattered showers with possible thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon, especially in northern areas.
The cold front will pass through by late Saturday evening, with
cooler and drier air following in its wake. Precipitation will come
to an end overnight, and temperatures will drop into the upper 30s
to mid 40s by daybreak.

Other than the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the other
concern for this time frame will be breezy conditions. A strong
850mb 45-50kt jet will move overhead, and with the aforementioned
steepening lapse rates, expect some of this will mix down to the
surface. And should any convection develop, stronger cores could
well mix these higher winds down as well. Indeed, note the latest
Day 3 thunderstorm outlook from SPC has included much of our region
in a Marginal Risk. The main concern would be strong winds, but
small hail would be possible as well with any of the more robust
cells.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...Drier and cooler conditions will prevail
through the first part of next week as high pressure builds over
eastern New England. As the ridge moves off to our east, an upper
trough will dig across the Northern Plains, shunting the remnants of
Hurricane Delta northeastward. Although the bulk of these remnants
look to remain to our south, moisture from the system will stream
northward ahead of the deepening trough and associated surface
front. There has been a fair amount of model-to-model and run-to-run
differences in the details of this upper trough/front, but at least
for now the 08/00z runs seem to indicate that the best chances for
precipitation will be Monday night into Tuesday, with the actual
frontal passage late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure
briefly builds in Wednesday. Temperatures will likely show a warming
trend prior to the frontal passage, reaching above normal by
Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Breezy northwest winds ongoing, with a mix
of VFR and MVFR ceilings at this time. We will see steady
northwest to west-northwest winds at 8-15 knots sustained and
with gusts of 16-25 knots for the next 12 to 18 hours. We 
should see MVFR ceilings at KBTV/KMPV/KSLK last through about 
09Z-10Z before clouds lift and skies will trend mostly clear 
beyond 16Z. After 22Z, we will see winds steadily decline to 
around 5 knots and remain northwesterly.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 to near 35
knots is ongoing over Lake Champlain. While the overhead low-
level jet is decreasing, cooler temperatures aloft over the 
warm lake waters should promote steady mixing overnight. So 
only a gradual decrease in wind speeds is expected this evening 
across Lake Champlain. Based on the latest guidance, it looks 
like we should see winds fall below lake wind advisory criteria 
around sunrise, but remaining elevated at 10 to 20 knots into
the afternoon before a more steady decrease this evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Team BTV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html