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Expires:202010162000;;370496
FPUS51 KBTV 160724
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
321 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.TODAY...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times this afternoon. Highs
in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times until midnight. Lows
in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of rain in the morning, then a
slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 50.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of
rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 40. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202010161100;;378288
ASUS41 KBTV 161031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     RAIN      52  49  89 NE3       30.02S FOG              
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  52  51  97 S3        30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  50  48  93 NE7       30.02R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  51  97 MISG      29.99R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   50  49  97 CALM      30.03R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   52  52  98 CALM      30.04R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  54  54 100 NW6       30.04R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    52  49  89 E3        30.00R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  48  46  93 N3        30.04R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  52  50  93 CALM      30.05R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A N5          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  50  93 SW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  50  87 N8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  52  94 N8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;371568
FXUS61 KBTV 160754
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to track across the region 
this morning with light rainfall continuing across the North Country 
through the morning hours. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall 
will develop across Vermont this afternoon and continue into 
Saturday morning before high pressure builds in and clears out any 
lingering precipitation. Decreasing clouds will yield a very 
seasonal day on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Dry 
weather will continue into Saturday but we could see some gusty 
south to southwest winds during the afternoon hours. Unsettled and 
seasonal weather looks to continue through much of next week with a 
series of cold fronts expected to bring periods of rainfall to the 
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Friday...A quasi-stationary cold front 
continues to make slow progress eastward as it tracks across the
North Country. Precipitation remains anafrontal this morning as
the warm conveyor belt is currently moving opposite of the slow
slowly eastward advancing cold front. This is due in large part
to an influx of shortwave energy that is allowing the upper 
level trough anchored across the Mid-West to take on a negative 
tilt. We should see the front begin to accelerate eastward 
toward daybreak as the mid-level flow increases due to the 
orientation of the upper level trough. In the mean time, light 
rain/rain showers will continue across northern New York and 
northwestern Vermont with another 0.05" and 0.20" of rainfall 
expected through 8 AM. Additional shower activity is expected to
persist through the morning hours with rain chances increasing 
across eastern Vermont as the surface front continues to slide 
eastward.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will move into southern
Vermont early this afternoon as strong upper level diffluence coupled
with surface convergence should yield efficient rainfall processes.
Although we have favorable dynamics in place, our PWAT values will
only hover around an inch or so which is only around one standard
deviation above normal. This will limit rainfall totals across the
region throughout the day today but we are still expected to see
very beneficial rainfall across the region. Another increase in
rainfall activity is expected this evening as strong frontogenetic
forcing coupled with strong vertical ascent in the left exit region
of the upper level jet allows for an area of low pressure to form
along the frontal boundary south of Cape Cod. As this low tracks to
the north, we will see another burst of moderate to heavy rainfall
develop across eastern Vermont and will back into the Champlain
Valley as the upper level trough continues to become negatively
tilted. Rain will slowly come to and end from west to east through
Saturday morning as the cold front pushes well to our east and high
pressure situates across the region for the second half of Saturday.
Decreasing cloud cover will be seen on Saturday with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

A tight gradient in rainfall totals is expected across the North
Country as the best moisture will reside just to our east. The St.
Lawrence Valley will see the lowest rainfall totals of just a
quarter to half of an inch of rain through Saturday morning while
further east in the Champlain Valley will see 1-1.25 inches of
rainfall through Saturday morning. The rainfall winner will likely
be in northeastern Vermont where 2+ inches of rainfall looks likely
at this time. It should be noted that the rainfall amounts could
change quite a bit should the aforementioned surface low track
further east or west given the tight rainfall gradient. We are still
looking at the first snow across the high peaks of the Adirondacks
and Green Mountains tonight into early Saturday morning. The highest
accumulations will likely be seen across the Green Mountains with 3-
7 inches possible above 3500 ft. Lesser amounts are expected across
the Adirondacks given the considerably less precipitation amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Friday...The first part of Saturday night will
feature clear skies and likely some fog formation, especially east
of the Greens where the heavier rainfall totals occurred. Surface
high pressure will ridge into our area from the south and ideal
radiational cooling and fog formation conditions will exist east of
the Greens. Some clouds will move into our region from the west
during the second half of the overnight with warm air advection and
southwesterly return flow. Minimum temperatures will range from the
upper 30s in the St Lawrence valley down to the upper 20s in the
Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Although surface high pressure slides
east and off the coast of New England on Sunday, we'll still have a
pretty nice day to enjoy. Clouds continue to move into our area from
the west ahead of next approaching system, and weather will remain
dry. Maximum temperatures will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s,
warmest in St Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Winds will be a bit
gusty Sunday afternoon in those same areas as gradient increases
ahead of approaching frontal system and winds are able to mix down.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Friday...The long term portion of the forecast will
be pretty active, and feature above normal temperatures. Frontal
system which brought increasing clouds to our area on Sunday will
weaken as it approaches our are and surface low passes way north of
the area. Will mainly just see increase in clouds with this feature,
especially in the St Lawrence valley for Sunday night into Monday. A
bit of a stronger low will then track from the Ohio river valley
northeastward through the St Lawrence valley on Monday night into
Tuesday. Better dynamics with this system as the low passes right
through our area, though it will be a quick moving system. Therefore
some light rainfall is anticipated during the second half of Monday
night and through the morning hours on Tuesday. A large ridge of
surface high pressure will then pass just north of our area for
Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday, and we'll see a return to
drier weather. A low passing southeast of our region will then bring
the next chance of showers to our area for Wednesday afternoon into
the overnight hours with an upper level shortwave also passing
overhead. Thursday night into Friday will bring next chance for
precipitation as another low pressure system tracks from the Ohio
river valley northeastward and straight across our CWA later Friday
into Friday night. At this time, looks like it could be a pretty
moisture laden system, though this is very far out in the forecast
for any details to be overly promising.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Conditions are expected to continue to
deteriorate over the next 6 hours with most, if not all,
locations dropping to 1500 to 2500 ft ceilings by 12Z. Localized
pockets of IFR ceilings will be possible over the northern
Adirondacks but likely would come in waves vs being steady state
this morning. Light rain currently over western Vermont and
northern New York has brought visibilities down to 5-7 miles and
we should generally see VFR visibilities continue through the
morning hours. A swatch of moderate to heavy rain is expected to
develop across Vermont this afternoon and persist into Saturday
morning where we could see visibilities between 2 and 4 miles.
At this time, we only have mention of 3-5 miles in our TAFs as
we have time to fine tune the forecast for the 12Z TAF issuance.
Light and variable winds will persist across the region which
will be a nice reprieve after the gusty winds seen on Thursday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay

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