FPUS51 KBTV 210718

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then
showers likely this afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then
partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. East
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 50. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Lows
in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs around


ASUS41 KBTV 211031
600 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2020




BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    48  45  89 S5        30.23F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    46  46 100 CALM      30.31S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  46  97 S3        30.27F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  46  97 MISG      30.27F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  46  45  97 CALM      30.29S VSB 3/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    45  44  97 CALM      30.24F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  49  49 100 VRB5      30.26R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    50  49  96 CALM      30.30R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    47  44  89 CALM      30.23F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    45  41  87 CALM      30.27F FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    51  48  89 N5        30.24S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A SE22G33     N/A                   


BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  46  87 SE6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  46 100 W2          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  46  93 SE6         N/A                   


FXUS61 KBTV 210747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
347 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

A frontal boundary south of the region early this morning will lift 
northward through the forecast area today bringing unseasonably warm 
temperatures and gusty winds to much of the region. A cold front 
moves into northern New York mid-morning along with light rain 
showers and progresses eastward through Vermont during the late 
afternoon and evening hours. High pressure and drier weather return 
for Thursday with even warmer temperatures expected Friday before a 
strong cold front passage is expected for the weekend. After a quiet 
and cool weather day on Sunday, active weather returns for next 


As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall little change made to the
forecast for the next 36 hours from what we've been highlighting. A
stalled frontal boundary situated over south-central New England
early this morning will begin to shift northward as a warm front
over the next few hours as a broad area of low pressure over the
Great Lakes shifts northeastward into the Ottawa Valley. Spotty
light showers across central and eastern portions of the CWA will
generally dry out towards daybreak, while to the west a cold front
attendant to the aforementioned low will approach the St. Lawrence
Valley with showers developing out ahead into the Adirondacks and
far northern Champlain Valley through noon. Meanwhile, eastward
ahead of the front, a strong low-level jet of 40-50kts will develop
in response to a tightening pressure gradient between the front and
high pressure over the Atlantic basin. Relatively stable low levels
and poor lapse rates will keep the bulk of these winds aloft, but
the southerly channeled flow up the Champlain Valley will still
likely produce gusts in the 30-40 mph range across Grand Isle and
western portions of Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well
as on the open water of Lake Champlain from mid-morning through
early afternoon.

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today as well due to the
above mentioned strong warm air advection, but just how warm is
difficult to pinpoint due to low clouds and stable low levels. 925mb
temps do warm to near +15C this afternoon, but soundings don't
support mixing that high so I feel we'll fall short of the
previously forecast 70 degrees in the Champlain Valley. Still
mid/upper 60s seem plausible in the deeper valleys with low 60s
across the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont before the aforementioned
front shifts into central portions of the CWA late this afternoon
and eastern Vermont during the evening hours before falling apart
towards midnight. Due to the slow progression of the front eastward
during the day, the highest rainfall amounts will occur from the
Adirondacks westward where 0.25-0.33" is expected, while far
northern portions of the Champlain Valley may see up to 0.25", but
the rest of the area will likely be about 0.15" or less.

Post frontal passage tonight conditions quickly dry out as high
pressure builds into the region, but weak cold air advection and
scattered to numerous clouds lingering about will keep temperature
mild in the mid 40s to low 50s. Dry conditions and partly cloudy
skies will ensue for Thursday, with no precipitation expected and
temperatures remaining above seasonal normals in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.


As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Warmer and more moist air will 
once again surge through the North Country Thursday night as the
front perpetually in our area this week lifts back northward as
a warm front. A few showers are possible in the evening across 
mainly northern New York but areas of drizzle and mist will be 
favored just about everywhere as the overnight progresses, with 
maybe the exception of southeastern Vermont where less warming 
aloft is expected. The lack of surface wind and warm advection 
just above a cool surface layer will create a stable and 
saturated near-surface, which will help maintain steady 
temperatures ranging from low 40s to low 50s. Out ahead of a 
cold front approaching from the west, warmest air will pool up 
causing a bit of a temperature gradient from west to east during
the daytime Friday. While there will be quite a bit of cloud 
cover, temperatures should still top off in the low 60s in 
eastern Vermont while rising as high as 75 in the St. Lawrence 


As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Models have had good run-to-run
agreement and consistency with the cold front passage occurring
during the overnight hours in northern New York into Saturday
morning across eastern Vermont. There will be a thin ribbon of
clouds and precipitation associated with the front. With the surface
low progged to be up in northern Quebec, and associated jet streak
in central Quebec, we will see only a quick hit of light rain.
However, think surface forcing is sufficient to support chances
everywhere, with generally less spatial coverage of showers as you
go south and east. The main feature of the front will be the sharp
thermal gradient, with its passage rapidly causing gusty northwest
winds to usher seasonable air back into the region. Following the
wind shift there will be several hours of gusts upwards of 20-30 mph
before tapering off. Based on the timing of the front, it appears
portions of eastern Vermont, especially southeastern Vermont, should
see one more warm day, but high temperatures in the 50s will be
achieved early in the day as you go farther west. Lows will be much
chillier behind the front than in recent days, with values ranging
from the 20s in the Adirondacks and much of the Northeast Kingdom to
the upper 30s in Grand Isle County.

On Sunday, seasonably cold high pressure will nose down into the
North Country. Northerly winds will be nearly calm given lack of
gradient flow, except for a light northeast breeze near the St.
Lawrence River and northerly breeze in the Champlain Valley. If
skies remain mostly clear for most of the day, temperatures could be
a degree or two higher as mixing heights would benefit, but the air
mass is cold enough to support below normal highs in the 40s in most

Otherwise, the main story for the long range continues to be
storminess for the beginning of the work week. For Sunday night into
Monday, the GFS and CMC advertise a classic overrunning
precipitation situation that supports widespread beneficial
rainfall, beginning perhaps as a brief period of snow in the higher
terrain before warm air aloft wipes it out. As strong high pressure
retreats into Maine, clouds will quickly overspread the entire North
Country during this period and stratiform precipitation quickly
follows. A swath of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible along and
to the northwest of the path of low pressure, so if it tracks over
southern Vermont as currently forecast, it will be a favorable
position for a soaking rain over central Vermont and points north
and west for a large chunk of Monday. A second period of rainfall on
Tuesday is also possible over some of the same areas, but the
position of the front, as was the case this week, will determine the
details. If the storm track does stay relatively far south, a
northerly surface flow during Monday and Tuesday will cause maximum
temperatures to stay chilly in the mid 40s to low 50s, except warmer
in southern Vermont.


Through 06Z Thursday...Changeable flight conditions are 
expected through the next 24 hours. Current IFR conditions 
outside of the deeper valleys will largely persist through the 
remainder of the overnight hours with VFR at KBTV and KMSS 
trending to MVFR in the next few hours. After 12Z IFR lifts to 
MVFR with MVFR persisting through much of the remainder of the 
period as light rain develops at KMSS/KSLK around 15Z and 
progresses eastward through the afternoon. Locally gusty 
south/southwesterly winds at KBTV to 30kts and KPBG/KSLK to 
25kts develop between 12-15Z and persist through 20-22Z before 
abating with all sites seeing LLWS from 15-21Z as a low level 
jet of 40-50kts at 2-3kft tracks over the region.


Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.


As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...A lake wind advisory has been
posted for today as strong southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots are
expected to develop by mid-morning and last through the
afternoon. Waves will build to 3-6 feet across the open waters
from the Four Brothers northward to Plattsburgh Bay and portions
of the Inland Sea north of Burton Island creating hazardous
conditions for small craft. Winds will subside after sunset
behind a cold front passage with waves subsiding to nearly calm
by midnight.




NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff

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