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Expires:202010212000;;833321 FPUS51 KBTV 210718 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 VTZ006-212000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 .TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. East winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows around 50. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .MONDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TUESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs around 50. $$ Expires:202010211100;;841416 ASUS41 KBTV 211031 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2020 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-211100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 48 45 89 S5 30.23F MONTPELIER CLOUDY 46 46 100 CALM 30.31S FOG MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 47 46 97 S3 30.27F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 47 46 97 MISG 30.27F LYNDONVILLE* LGT RAIN 46 45 97 CALM 30.29S VSB 3/4 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 45 44 97 CALM 30.24F RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 49 49 100 VRB5 30.26R SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 50 49 96 CALM 30.30R HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 47 44 89 CALM 30.23F NEWPORT* CLOUDY 45 41 87 CALM 30.27F FOG BENNINGTON CLOUDY 51 48 89 N5 30.24S ISLAND POND* N/A 45 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 45 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A SE22G33 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 50 46 87 SE6 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 46 100 W2 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 46 93 SE6 N/A $$ Expires:No;;834263 FXUS61 KBTV 210747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary south of the region early this morning will lift northward through the forecast area today bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty winds to much of the region. A cold front moves into northern New York mid-morning along with light rain showers and progresses eastward through Vermont during the late afternoon and evening hours. High pressure and drier weather return for Thursday with even warmer temperatures expected Friday before a strong cold front passage is expected for the weekend. After a quiet and cool weather day on Sunday, active weather returns for next Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall little change made to the forecast for the next 36 hours from what we've been highlighting. A stalled frontal boundary situated over south-central New England early this morning will begin to shift northward as a warm front over the next few hours as a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes shifts northeastward into the Ottawa Valley. Spotty light showers across central and eastern portions of the CWA will generally dry out towards daybreak, while to the west a cold front attendant to the aforementioned low will approach the St. Lawrence Valley with showers developing out ahead into the Adirondacks and far northern Champlain Valley through noon. Meanwhile, eastward ahead of the front, a strong low-level jet of 40-50kts will develop in response to a tightening pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the Atlantic basin. Relatively stable low levels and poor lapse rates will keep the bulk of these winds aloft, but the southerly channeled flow up the Champlain Valley will still likely produce gusts in the 30-40 mph range across Grand Isle and western portions of Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well as on the open water of Lake Champlain from mid-morning through early afternoon. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today as well due to the above mentioned strong warm air advection, but just how warm is difficult to pinpoint due to low clouds and stable low levels. 925mb temps do warm to near +15C this afternoon, but soundings don't support mixing that high so I feel we'll fall short of the previously forecast 70 degrees in the Champlain Valley. Still mid/upper 60s seem plausible in the deeper valleys with low 60s across the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont before the aforementioned front shifts into central portions of the CWA late this afternoon and eastern Vermont during the evening hours before falling apart towards midnight. Due to the slow progression of the front eastward during the day, the highest rainfall amounts will occur from the Adirondacks westward where 0.25-0.33" is expected, while far northern portions of the Champlain Valley may see up to 0.25", but the rest of the area will likely be about 0.15" or less. Post frontal passage tonight conditions quickly dry out as high pressure builds into the region, but weak cold air advection and scattered to numerous clouds lingering about will keep temperature mild in the mid 40s to low 50s. Dry conditions and partly cloudy skies will ensue for Thursday, with no precipitation expected and temperatures remaining above seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Warmer and more moist air will once again surge through the North Country Thursday night as the front perpetually in our area this week lifts back northward as a warm front. A few showers are possible in the evening across mainly northern New York but areas of drizzle and mist will be favored just about everywhere as the overnight progresses, with maybe the exception of southeastern Vermont where less warming aloft is expected. The lack of surface wind and warm advection just above a cool surface layer will create a stable and saturated near-surface, which will help maintain steady temperatures ranging from low 40s to low 50s. Out ahead of a cold front approaching from the west, warmest air will pool up causing a bit of a temperature gradient from west to east during the daytime Friday. While there will be quite a bit of cloud cover, temperatures should still top off in the low 60s in eastern Vermont while rising as high as 75 in the St. Lawrence Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Models have had good run-to-run agreement and consistency with the cold front passage occurring during the overnight hours in northern New York into Saturday morning across eastern Vermont. There will be a thin ribbon of clouds and precipitation associated with the front. With the surface low progged to be up in northern Quebec, and associated jet streak in central Quebec, we will see only a quick hit of light rain. However, think surface forcing is sufficient to support chances everywhere, with generally less spatial coverage of showers as you go south and east. The main feature of the front will be the sharp thermal gradient, with its passage rapidly causing gusty northwest winds to usher seasonable air back into the region. Following the wind shift there will be several hours of gusts upwards of 20-30 mph before tapering off. Based on the timing of the front, it appears portions of eastern Vermont, especially southeastern Vermont, should see one more warm day, but high temperatures in the 50s will be achieved early in the day as you go farther west. Lows will be much chillier behind the front than in recent days, with values ranging from the 20s in the Adirondacks and much of the Northeast Kingdom to the upper 30s in Grand Isle County. On Sunday, seasonably cold high pressure will nose down into the North Country. Northerly winds will be nearly calm given lack of gradient flow, except for a light northeast breeze near the St. Lawrence River and northerly breeze in the Champlain Valley. If skies remain mostly clear for most of the day, temperatures could be a degree or two higher as mixing heights would benefit, but the air mass is cold enough to support below normal highs in the 40s in most locations. Otherwise, the main story for the long range continues to be storminess for the beginning of the work week. For Sunday night into Monday, the GFS and CMC advertise a classic overrunning precipitation situation that supports widespread beneficial rainfall, beginning perhaps as a brief period of snow in the higher terrain before warm air aloft wipes it out. As strong high pressure retreats into Maine, clouds will quickly overspread the entire North Country during this period and stratiform precipitation quickly follows. A swath of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible along and to the northwest of the path of low pressure, so if it tracks over southern Vermont as currently forecast, it will be a favorable position for a soaking rain over central Vermont and points north and west for a large chunk of Monday. A second period of rainfall on Tuesday is also possible over some of the same areas, but the position of the front, as was the case this week, will determine the details. If the storm track does stay relatively far south, a northerly surface flow during Monday and Tuesday will cause maximum temperatures to stay chilly in the mid 40s to low 50s, except warmer in southern Vermont. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Changeable flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Current IFR conditions outside of the deeper valleys will largely persist through the remainder of the overnight hours with VFR at KBTV and KMSS trending to MVFR in the next few hours. After 12Z IFR lifts to MVFR with MVFR persisting through much of the remainder of the period as light rain develops at KMSS/KSLK around 15Z and progresses eastward through the afternoon. Locally gusty south/southwesterly winds at KBTV to 30kts and KPBG/KSLK to 25kts develop between 12-15Z and persist through 20-22Z before abating with all sites seeing LLWS from 15-21Z as a low level jet of 40-50kts at 2-3kft tracks over the region. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...A lake wind advisory has been posted for today as strong southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected to develop by mid-morning and last through the afternoon. Waves will build to 3-6 feet across the open waters from the Four Brothers northward to Plattsburgh Bay and portions of the Inland Sea north of Burton Island creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds will subside after sunset behind a cold front passage with waves subsiding to nearly calm by midnight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Lahiff MARINE... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html