Expires:202101252100;;459890 FPUS51 KBTV 251047 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 544 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 VTZ018-252100- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 544 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .TODAY...Sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 9 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming north after midnight. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 40 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows around 19. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light snow. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. East winds around 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 20. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows around zero. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs 5 to 10 above. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows 5 below to zero. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 10 above. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around zero. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. $$ Expires:202101251200;;461878 ASUS41 KBTV 251130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST MON JAN 25 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-251200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLEAR 3 -2 79 CALM 30.15R MONTPELIER CLEAR 2 -2 83 CALM 30.09R MORRISVILLE CLEAR -7 -11 83 S3 30.10R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A -3 -7 82 MISG 30.08S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 0 -3 87 CALM 30.05S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 0 -3 88 CALM 30.13F RUTLAND* CLEAR -2 -5 87 SE7 30.11R WCI -15 SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 5 0 79 CALM 30.09R HIGHGATE* FAIR -1 -6 79 CALM 30.16R NEWPORT* CLOUDY -4 -8 82 CALM 30.07S BENNINGTON CLEAR 0 -5 79 CALM 30.12R MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 1 N/A N/A N38G59 N/A WCI -26 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS $$ Expires:No;;461560 FXUS61 KBTV 251122 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 622 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will begin to moderate today and conditions will be dry with high pressure passing overhead. A low pressure system moving through New York will bring some light snow to the area late Tuesday through midday Wednesday. Some snow showers will linger over the higher terrain into Thursday. Temperatures will drop to below seasonable norms Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 550 AM EST Monday...Forecast in good shape going forward with no major changes needed. Low clouds are spreading over northern New York as expected, which have allowed temperatures to climb over the northern Adirondacks and Saint Lawrence Valley after hitting impressive early morning lows. Meanwhile further east, clear skies over the Champlain Valley and much of Vermont have allowed temperatures to fall to near zero shortly before sunrise. Previous discussion follows... Today and tonight will be relatively quiet on the weather front with high pressure slowly moving northeastward over our forecast area. Temperatures will begin to moderate starting today as the high shifts to eastward. Highs today will be in the upper teens to mid 20s...a good 10 degrees above yesterday's highs for much of the area. For tonight, still expecting some mid and high clouds to spread over the area that will limit diurnal heat loss. In addition, forecast soundings are indicating some of the higher terrain will have low clouds persisting tonight. Thus, despite high pressure over the region, thinking overnight lows will generally stay above zero, and up to the low teens in the valleys. Temperatures will continue to moderate Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks to western NY, sending a warm front towards our forecast area. Pretty much all of the model guidance has taken a northward shift in this low pressure system that was previously expected to stay to our south. Thus, Tuesday/Tuesday night forecast has changed for the North Country, and snow lovers will embrace the change since this shift does bring some snow (albeit relatively light) into the area. Snow will spread over northern NY late Tuesday afternoon, moving north and eastward into the evening hours. See Short Term Discussion for more details on this snow event. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Monday...A period of accumulating snows appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as weakening low pressure lifts into the region. Warm advection processes and modest isentropic lift through the mid- levels (around 290K) will will be the main players here, with strongest forcing setting up across southern Adirondacks into Essex County, NY and across our southern VT counties. That said, the primary dendritic snow growth zone generally lies above the area of best lift, boosting confidence that this will largely be a light snowfall event. I leaned heavily toward a model-blended solution in regard to QPF, downplaying this morning's GFS contribution with it's typically biased higher amounts under weak/modest WAA events. Steadier light snows then become more amorphous and lessen in overall coverage into Wednesday afternoon as warm thermal advective processes wane. Early snowfall total estimates from late Tuesday afternoon through noon Wednesday or so will average generally in the 1-3 inch range, with slightly higher amounts from 2-5 inches across Essex County, NY and Windsor/Rutland counties in VT. With an abundance of clouds and light near-surface winds temperatures will show a smaller than normal diurnal range through this period, averaging generally from the mid teens to lower 20s Tuesday night, and in the 20s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Monday...Lingering light snow and/or snow showers continue to wane into Wednesday night/Thursday, with best coverage across the eastern higher terrain where some minor additional accumulations will be possible. Forcing is quite weak however so nothing too notable by late January standards. The primary feature during the late week time frame will be a fairly impressive arctic shortwave trough forecast to dive southeast through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning which will usher in a much colder airmass for Friday into Saturday. With the arrival of this feature expected at night, the threat of more organized squalls appears rather low at this point, but at least some lower-end PoPs will be maintained to account for the cold frontal passage. Highs on Thursday near seasonal values in the upper teens to mid 20s in nrn NY and through the 20s in VT, then considerably colder Fri/Sat (single digits and teens). Looking further out there is some indication that another round of accumulating snows will occur by Sunday night or perhaps on Monday as temperatures moderate ahead of a rather complex system advancing east from the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through 06Z with light and variable winds. The only exception will be KSLK, where some MVFR ceilings are currently being reported and are expected to remain through 23Z before lifting some to VFR levels. Otherwise, will see some bkn/ovc ceilings between 2000 and 3000 ft spread over much of the area between 06Z and 12Z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Duell - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html