Expires:202105112000;;941153 FPUS51 KBTV 111017 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 613 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 VTZ018-112000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 613 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs around 50. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. $$ Expires:202105111100;;941526 ASUS41 KBTV 111030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-111100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON PTCLDY 43 35 73 S6 29.91S MONTPELIER CLEAR 35 34 96 SW5 29.93S WCI 31 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 41 40 96 CALM 29.91S FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 43 41 93 MISG 29.89S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 41 35 78 S3 29.93S RUTLAND* PTCLDY 40 36 86 S5 29.94S SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 37 35 92 CALM 29.95R HIGHGATE* FAIR 46 36 69 SW5 29.90S NEWPORT* CLOUDY 41 39 92 SW3 29.90S BENNINGTON PTCLDY 43 35 73 SW7G18 29.97S ISLAND POND* N/A 39 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 37 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 37 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 34 N/A N/A W20 N/A WCI 22 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 41 81 S8 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 45 37 76 SE6 N/A $$ Expires:No;;941184 FXUS61 KBTV 111020 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 620 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled and cool weather pattern continues across the forecast area today with scattered showers developing and temperatures mainly in the 50s. Additional showers are possible over Vermont on Wednesday, before a drying trend develops for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be warming back into the 60s by Thursday with lows mainly in the in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 618 AM EDT Tuesday...Quick update to remove frost advisory from eastern Rutland/Addison counties, as combination of winds/clouds have held temps mainly in the mid 30s overnight with limited frost formation. Otherwise, did bump hourly temps upward in several locations, as SLK is crntly 39F. Rest of fcst in good shape. Water vapor shows our next closed 5h/7h circulation just north of Lake Superior with elongated 5h vort approaching the northern Great Lakes. This energy and associated 7h ribbon of enhanced moisture wl approach our northern cwa by 18z this aftn. Expecting the areal coverage of widely scattered showers to increase, especially near the International Border and expanding southward by 00z. Based on steepening sfc to 3 km lapse rates and moisture btwn 800-700mb, expecting high based cumulus cloud field to develop btwn 15-18z today, which wl limit additional heating/instability during the aftn hours. This idea results in minimal CAPE values of 100 to 200 j/kg when best s/w dynamics arrive, so while the thunder chances are not zero, the coverage wl be minimal<10% and have not mention in fcst attm. Also, while thermodynamic profiles are cold enough to support some hail/graupel, uncertain exists if updrafts wl be strong enough to produce this threat. The best forcing from 5h vort and axis of deepest moisture arrives btwn 22z-03z acrs our northern cwa, therefore have the highest pops of 45 to 60%, along with the highest qpf values of 0.10 to 0.20 acrs the northern Dacks/Green mtns. Temps today wl be cool with clouds developing and progged 925mb temp only in the 3-6C range, supporting upper 40s SLK/NEK to mid/upper 50s elsewhere. Tonight, areal coverage of precip decreases aft 06z with some low clouds possible, as modest llvl caa continues on northwest 925mb to 850mb flow of 25 to 30 knots. The combination of pres gradient and clouds, should limit frost formation acrs our fa with lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Weds...mid/upper lvl trof prevails with additional s/w energy dropping acrs central/eastern VT, including the NEK btwn 15z-18z. This energy, along with 850 to 500mb RH > 80% supports the idea of additional showers, mainly over VT. Have continued with chc pops (35 to 45%) on Weds, as temps warm back into the 50s to near 60F. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 356 AM EDT Tuesday...For Wednesday night, quiet conditions expected with deeper moisture departing eastwards. Anticipate a cool night under northwest flow with lows in the 30s to near 40. During the day, weather conditions will feel quite pleasant. Building heights and increased atmospheric thicknesses should yield pleasant temperatures amidst northwesterly flow. Anticipate highs to reach the low to mid 60s. Late in the evening, a density boundary will propagate southwards from Canadian surface high descending across Hudson Bay in Canada. Some showers will develop with diurnally driven instability across Quebec Province and shift southeastwards. Depending on the strength of the incoming upper ridge, portions of our forecast area could be affected, or the focus could shift east towards New Hampshire and Maine. Thus, the most likely chances for precipitation will be displayed for the Northeast Kingdom around 8 PM Friday, and slight chances will exist across the remainder of our northern tier. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Tuesday...We are definitely transitioning towards summer based on the weaker jet stream, along with the chances for diurnally driven convection just about every day in the extended. Synoptic models are depicting some convection on Friday; however, the upper ridge will be shifting directly overhead. Thus, this forecast will depict a slight chance for much of the region, but better odds over the high terrain. Saturday looks a bit better for afternoon showers, mainly since there will be warmer afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s and an upper trough that will wash out across the eastern US. Then on Sunday, a remnant surface trough will shift across the region with some weak warm advection. There will be more CAPE available, approaching 500 J/kg, but rising heights may put a damper on convective development. Heading into the new week, synoptic models diverge on forecasting the speed and strength of two northern stream shortwaves. Monday will likely be relatively dry as the upper ridge looks to be at peak strength over the North Country, suppressing convection over the area. How the middle of next week will play out will depend on whether the upper ridge maintains strength or begins to break down as these shortwaves translate eastwards. Ensemble prediction systems offer no clear path for precipitation chances, but it seems likely that temperatures will warm above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Expecting vfr conditions into Tuesday, with exception of a period of mvfr cigs possible at slk btwn 09z-14z this morning. Otherwise, as mixing increases expect localized winds to increase at 10 to 20 knots from the westerly direction by mid morning. Widely scattered showers develop aft 18z with increasing areal coverage toward 00z, especially near the international border. Have utilized vcsh wording to cover potential in tafs. Soundings support high convective cloud bases btwn 5000 and 6000 ft today, but lowering toward mvfr conditions at mss/slk/mpv aft 00z this evening. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Isolated TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Taber - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html