Expires:202107182000;;055235 FPUS51 KBTV 180804 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 VTZ018-182000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 .TODAY...Areas of dense fog this morning. Rain. Highs in the mid 60s. East winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northeast this afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of rain until midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of rain in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows around 60. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. .TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs around 70. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. $$ Expires:202107181100;;061638 ASUS41 KBTV 181030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-181100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 64 63 96 N6 30.04S FOG MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 61 60 97 CALM 30.10S FOG MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 63 62 97 N3 30.07S ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 61 93 MISG 30.05S LYNDONVILLE* RAIN 61 59 93 NW5 30.10S MIDDLEBURY* HVY RAIN 61 60 98 CALM 30.02S RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 64 64 100 SE6 30.02S SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 65 64 97 VRB3 30.03S HIGHGATE* DRIZZLE 65 64 97 CALM 30.06R NEWPORT* LGT RAIN 63 60 91 CALM 30.10R BENNINGTON CLOUDY 68 67 96 CALM 29.98S ISLAND POND* N/A 63 N/A N/A NE1 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 61 N/A N/A E2 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A E18G30 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 75 100 W1 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 64 64 100 NW10 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 63 94 NW15 N/A $$ Expires:No;;055668 FXUS61 KBTV 180809 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 409 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Soaking rainfall will shift east of the area this morning. Scattered showers will redevelop later today with some additional showers and thunderstorms Monday forced by an upper level low pressure system. Higher chances of showers and scattered storms will follow on Tuesday with the approach of a cold front on Tuesday. Unsettled and cool weather will follow for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Sunday...It's been a soggy night through much of the North Country with steady moderate rainfall of 0.1 to 0.2" per hour over much of the area resulting in many 0.5" to 1.25" observations through the early morning hours. Unfortunately this heavier rain will not get into the far northern portions of the region that are in the largest rainfall deficits, and the widespread rain will be pushing east of the area this morning. The remainder of the Sunday will see low cloud cover that will greatly limit high temperatures. We continue to advertise a cool day with temperatures mainly in the mid-60s to low 70s, except in the St. Lawrence Valley where some sunshine is expected. Also expect some more rain to develop, with best chances over south central Vermont and Adirondacks closer to the 700-850 millibar low pressure system slowly approaching from the west during the afternoon. This rain will continue into at least the first portion of the night. With the low pressure system passing to our south, we still should see more of a stratiform rather than convective rain during this period with a stable low-level atmosphere as winds continue to be light north or northeasterly. These winds will promote cool conditions with temperatures similar to the previous night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. The trailing 500 millibar trough will make its move across and east of the North Country on Monday. The coolest air aloft will be centered over our area, which will promote steep lapse rates and instability. The big question is how much sunshine will there be to start the day. With enough surface heating, we will see low-level lapse rates that will allow for some vigorous convection and development of isolated thunderstorms capable of producing small hail. Not much of a wind threat with any of these storms given weak wind fields. Coverage of thunderstorms will not be widespread, although pinprick showers will possibly become numerous during the afternoon. With return of sunshine given increasing surface pressure and related loss of low clouds, temperatures should recover to near normal in the mid-70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Sunday...Any showers or storms Monday evening will come to an end as the atmosphere becomes more stable and upper trough moves further to the east. Shortwave trough will move down from Canada during the late morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. Dynamic support will be increasing for showers and enough instability should develop for a thunderstorm threat. As a result will continue with the idea of showers likely and a slight chance of thunder. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Sunday...The shortwave trough that moves down from Canada on Tuesday is slow to move east Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will help keep the chance of showers going, especially over Vermont. Eventually this feature moves far enough east to have precipitation come to an end and at this time Thursday is generally looking dry. For the remainder of the extended period we continue to be in cyclonic flow aloft and there will be a slight chance/chance of showers through much of the Friday through Sunday time period. Thermal profile, clouds, and periods of precipitation suggest high temperatures in the extended will generally be slightly below normal through the entire period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR will continue as widespread light rain, with locally heavy rain over the next six hours, impacts all terminals except for MSS. Best chance of IFR rain is at BTV and MPV, with otherwise steadier rain resulting in some MVFR conditions through 12Z. Clouds will lower over time resulting in IFR ceilings at MPV and RUT as soon as 08Z, and these IFR ceilings may persist at these sites and joined by some additional scattered showers after 18Z. Similar conditions at BTV and SLK are expected but with mainly MVFR ceilings. Winds will be light northeasterly through the period. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Kutikoff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html