Expires:202107192000;;107751 FPUS51 KBTV 190739 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 VTZ018-192000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this morning. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. $$ Expires:202107191100;;115107 ASUS41 KBTV 191030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-191100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 66 62 87 CALM 29.98R MONTPELIER CLOUDY 63 61 93 NW3 30.03S MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 63 62 97 CALM 30.00R FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 61 93 MISG 29.96S LYNDONVILLE* DRIZZLE 63 60 92 CALM 30.01R MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 63 62 98 CALM 29.99R RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 63 63 100 N5 29.98R SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 64 64 100 CALM 29.97R HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 64 63 96 CALM 29.99R NEWPORT* CLOUDY 62 59 91 CALM 30.01R BENNINGTON CLOUDY 65 64 97 NW3 29.97R ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 61 N/A N/A NE1 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 73 100 N1 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 64 88 N9 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 66 63 88 NW6 N/A $$ Expires:No;;109793 FXUS61 KBTV 190816 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 416 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving low pressure system will finally move east of Vermont this morning bringing an end to cool and showery conditions. Meanwhile, partly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures will help create instability available for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over northern and western areas. More widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected late on Tuesday and Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front. Additional chances for showers exists Wednesday through Friday and Sunday, with generally cooler than normal weather persisting through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 416 AM EDT Monday...Showers have persisted across much of the Adirondacks into central and southern Vermont overnight with very slow movement of a low pressure system just southeast of the region and upper level trough right overhead. As the trough pulls north and east this morning, shower activity will die off and clouds will finally thin out. There will be strong differential heating west of this area with temperatures more seasonable over western Vermont into northern New York. This convergent boundary will help focus an axis of higher instability and we have higher chances of thunderstorms across eastern portions of the Adirondacks during the early afternoon hours. However, isolated thunderstorms will be possible farther north and west as well where greatest CAPE values are progged given warmest and most humid boundary layer conditions. Towards evening, the threat of these thunderstorms shifts farther north and east over northern Vermont where the better instability will likely be. Expect the environment to be lacking deep layer shear with little directional or speed changes with height, so the main threat with storms will be lightning as opposed to wind and hail. After shower activity winds down, focus is on potential for areas of fog. Currently have patchy fog for much of the Connecticut River Valley, but coverage could be larger given the anticipation of good radiational cooling conditions. For tomorrow, main issue will be timing of a cold front and development of a pre-frontal trough. A lot of variation in model guidance at this time for how the wind fields look ahead of the cold front which will still be off to our northwest by Tuesday evening. If a pre-frontal trough brings through some showers during the morning less instability will be available for the expected organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours. For now, the forecast indicates widespread thunderstorms, which may be capable of gusty, non-severe, winds moving from northwest to southeast during the evening hours. At the same time, we leave some chances of thunderstorms farther south earlier in the day as well to account for the possibility of the initial forcing of precipitation, which again would be garden variety thunderstorm activity with expectation of limited shear. It will probably be the warmest day of the week, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Convection will be ongoing Tuesday evening over the northern third of our area ahead of a cold front. Instability will exist ahead of the cold front and deep layer shear will be moving over the top of that instability. However, both instability and shear will not be that strong, but enough nevertheless to maintain a thunderstorm threat. Definitely something to keep an eye on as parameters are close to potentially producing a few stronger storms. The thunder threat will come to an end overnight, but upper trough axes at 500 and 300 millibars are lagging behind the lower level features. These features do not move into the area until Wednesday and thus we are looking at additional precipitation, especially across Vermont in the afternoon on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...No significant weather is expected at this time. The showers will come to an end and/or exit to the east Wednesday night and northwest flow aloft develops over the area on Thursday. The northwest flow aloft will persist right through Saturday. There will be a few shortwaves moving through the flow aloft and this could result in a few showers Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s both days. At this time Saturday is looking to be the only completely dry day and with more sunshine highs will be in the 70s to around 80. The flow aloft backs to the west on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves in from the west. As a result, precipitation chances will be increasing as the day wears on. Highs once again will be in the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Continued mix of IFR and LIFR ceilings at RUT, and MVFR and IFR at MPV, through about 15Z due to proximity to a low pressure system, with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. An occasional shower at southern terminals possible through this time period but no visibility obstructions expected. There is a conditional fog threat, particularly at MSS, where high clouds currently mitigate development but can foresee at least temporary reduced visibility between 08Z and 11Z. After 18Z, isolated showers with potential thunderstorm activity will move southeastward and have best chance of impacting northern/western terminals MSS, SLK, PBG, and EFK, with activity ending close to 00Z. Could see development of fog before 06Z in wake of showers with trapped surface moisture and calm, dry air above, but left out of TAF for now. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Kutikoff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html