Expires:202107202000;;634867 FPUS51 KBTV 200811 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 406 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 VTZ018-202000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 406 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 .TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Hazy. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Hazy until midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly until midnight. Lows around 60. West winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper 50s. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Breezy with highs in the lower 70s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows around 60. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. $$ Expires:202107201100;;640708 ASUS41 KBTV 201030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-201100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.89R MONTPELIER MOCLDY 62 60 93 S3 29.95S MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 63 63 100 CALM 29.91S FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 62 60 93 MISG 29.88S LYNDONVILLE* FOG 61 60 97 CALM 29.93R VSB<1/4 MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 62 62 99 CALM 29.91S FOG RUTLAND* CLOUDY 63 63 100 E5 29.92S SPRINGFIELD FOG 59 59 100 CALM 29.91F VSB 1/2 HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 65 64 96 CALM 29.89R FOG NEWPORT* MOCLDY 62 60 92 SW3 29.91R FOG BENNINGTON CLOUDY 64 63 96 CALM 29.93R FOG ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 59 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A NW21 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS $$ Expires:No;;634568 FXUS61 KBTV 200809 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 409 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Smoke and haze will be seen across northern New York and portions of Vermont through this afternoon. A cold front approaching from the west will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening with the possibility of a few strong to severe storms. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but improving conditions are expected for the second half of Wednesday. Quieter weather is expected for the second half of the work weak with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal values. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...A decaying MCS continues to descend toward the St. Lawrence Valley from southern Ontario but the latest satellite trends continue to show warming cloud top temperatures. Given this trend and the latest NAM3/HRRR runs, it's looking increasingly likely this MCS will fizzle out prior to crossing the international border. With that being said, we continue to see decreased visibilities due to haze/smoke from the wildfires out west. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke variables show an increasing concentration of particles across the region; especially across northern New York. It's likely we will see hazy skies and possibly reduced visibilities as smoke continues to move into the North Country which could create some air quality issues. Much of the day today will yield partly cloudy skies ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. There are signs of a very weak pre-frontal trough but the surface layer remains quite stable through 18Z or so before any convection that begins to fire ahead of the cold front is able to get rooted in the boundary layer. The front appears to come through piecemeal with the best thermodynamics occurring during the 20Z-23Z timeframe with the best upper level support occurring between 00Z and 04Z with the main mid-level height falls not occurring until closer to 03Z. The thermodynamics alone will be enough to support pulse thunderstorms this afternoon with CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg across the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Vermont. As we get closer to the 00Z timeframe, we will see our 0-6 km shear increase to around 30 knots which could help storms organize into a multicellular feature or maybe weak bowing segment if there is enough surface based instability. There will likely be a brief window where things line up nicely which has warranted a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Any lingering thunderstorms Tuesday night will end up becoming elevated as the surface layer decouples which would bring an end to any severe threat as mid-level lapse rates don't appear conducive to large hail. The upper level trough axis won't swing through until Wednesday morning so it appears scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible for at least the first half of Wednesday before we see showers taper off Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...Upper level troughing and west-northwest flow will be largely persistent across the Northeast through Thursday as a closed circulation at 500mb takes shape over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Drier mid-level air advecting in from a ridge over the northern Plains and Ontario will keep conditions mainly dry, but the chance of a few isolated showers can't be ruled out, especially across eastern Vermont closer to the upper low. Temps will remain about 5 degrees below seasonal normals with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. On Friday, the flow shifts more northerly as the upper low continues to gyre in place while the ridge shifts east. This will allow some Atlantic moisture to feed back into the region producing a higher threat for showers. Limited instability should preclude the chance of thunder, but PWATs hover around an inch support the chance for moderate rainfall, but generally less than a half inch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the aforementioned ridge finally moves over the region with a dry and sunny Saturday on tap. Unfortunately this tranquil weather will be short-lived as an upper low/trough moving over James Bay will dampen the ridge and shift the upper flow back to the west with several embedded shortwaves renewing chances for showers, especially on Sunday. Temps through the weekend will be near to slightly below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs, and upper 50s to mid 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...We continue to see reduced visibilities at KMSS and KSLK this morning with 4-5SM visibilities due to haze/smoke. The thinking is these conditions will continue, if not deteriorate, through the morning hours with these reduced visibilities working into other terminals through 00Z or so. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may actually help to increase visibilities as the rain helps to remove the smoke particles from the environment with conditions improving after 00Z. We could still see some strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon which could create brief strong wind gusts in excess of 25 knots and IFR visibilities in heavy rain but these will likely be the outliers and not the norm. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Clay - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html