Expires:202207012000;;488943 FPUS51 KBTV 011039 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 VTZ018-012000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then mostly cloudy with showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. .INDEPENDENCE DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the upper 50s. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. $$ Expires:202207011100;;488717 ASUS41 KBTV 011030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-011100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 72 56 57 S13 29.96F MONTPELIER PTCLDY 57 53 86 CALM 30.05F MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 54 52 93 CALM 30.00F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 55 53 93 MISG 30.02F LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 55 53 91 CALM 30.05S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 69 58 67 CALM 30.00F RUTLAND* PTCLDY 61 57 87 SE8 30.04F SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 57 54 89 CALM 30.06F HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 72 58 62 S6 29.94S NEWPORT* FAIR 64 51 64 S10 30.00F BENNINGTON PTCLDY 56 55 97 CALM 30.05F ISLAND POND* N/A 55 N/A N/A E1 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 52 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 52 72 S16 N/A $$ Expires:No;;488928 FXUS61 KBTV 011038 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 638 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures return today with highs expected to peak into the mid 80s to low 90s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop later today and continue overnight and early Saturday as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures trend cooler for the latter half of the holiday weekend with the next chance for precipitation arriving Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes were made to the forecast with this update. Most areas remain partly sunny this morning as mid/high clouds stream over the region. The exceptions are portions of the northern Adirondacks and south central VT where there are some sunny breaks. These should fill in as the morning wears on, though. Temperatures are already warming nicely in spots; currently 73F here at BTV, and several locations in the St Lawrence Valley are reporting temperatures in the lower 70s, as well. Have made adjustments to sky cover and temperatures to match the above trends. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape and no other changes were needed. Previous discussion...Still anticipating a warm day today with increasing precipitation chances heading into the evening and overnight hours. The warm front currently bisects the forecast area from northwest to southeast, and it will continue to lift northward through the early morning hours on increasing southwest flow. Hence expect temperatures will warm well into the 80s to around 90 across much of the area. That being said, there's a good bit of cloud cover upstream, and if this is either thicker or thinner than expected, temperatures will be cooler or warmer (respectively) than currently indicated. Dewpoints won't be overly oppressive though, so this will help keep heat index values at or below the low 90s. Winds will be on the breezy side as steepening low-level lapse rates allow for good mixing, and this will help make the day feel a touch cooler than the ambient temperatures. Still, it'll be a warm one and anyone with outdoor plans should take proper precautions. The other concern for today/tonight will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The trend on the latest CAM runs has been to slow the development of convection this afternoon, holding it off until more toward evening, closer to the arrival of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. There is a band of showers with embedded thunder, associated with a prefrontal trough, that is streaming by just to our northwest which will gradually shift eastward through the morning hours. This area of precipitation will lessen in intensity and coverage as it draws closer, so don't expect much more than some light rain showers to still exist by the time it enters the St Lawrence Valley. However, as we see increasing heating through the day, isolated to scattered showers could redevelop along the trough and/or over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Although the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until this evening/overnight ahead of the actual frontal passage, SB CAPE of 400-800 J/kg and 0-6km shear of around 40 kt indicate that any cells that do develop could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall would be the most likely threats. As mentioned above, showers should become more numerous this evening and overnight with the cold frontal passage. Moisture will pool ahead of the front, with PWATs exceeding 1.50 inches. This combined with warm cloud depths of 11+ kft and deep saturated profiles will result in efficient rainfall processes. There will be some elevated instability present, so any convective elements will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The activity should be fairly progressive so flooding is not anticipated, but some ponding of water in poor drainage areas will be possible in any thunderstorms. Given the moisture present, it'll be a muggy night with lows in the 60s. The cold front will be draped from roughly the Northeast Kingdom southwestward through the southern Champlain Valley early Saturday morning, and it will continue to push southward through the morning hours. As such, although showers may wane a bit toward daybreak, expect things to redevelop over eastern/southern sections of our forecast area as we head toward afternoon. Timing of the frontal passage is not optimal however, and the best instability/shear will be to our south by peak heating. Therefore, strong storms are not expected, though briefly heavy rainfall will still be possible. Drier air will follow in the front's wake, ending precipitation across much of our area by mid/late afternoon. Clearing skies and breezy west winds are expected thereafter. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 353 AM EDT Friday...As the aforementioned front continues to shift east of the region Saturday night, surface high pressure will build in behind it with clearing skies expected along with seasonal temperatures in the 50s. High pressure then remains in control for Sunday with just some passing cirrus clouds and temperatures just slightly below normal in the mid/upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Looking forward to next week the overall synoptic pattern looks to be a rather stagnant one across the entire CONUS with a persistent longwave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast states, while a mid/upper level ridge over the Southeast slowly retrogrades westward to the Four Corners region by the end of the week. West-northwest flow will generally prevail over the BTV forecast area through the period resulting in uncertainty in the forecast in regard to the timing of any shortwave energy that develops in the lee of the Rockies and rides over the ridge. The best chance for precipitation at this time appears to be during the Monday night to Tuesday timeframe where there is some consensus among medium range guidance, but thereafter model solutions diverge though are generally on the drier side. Greater confidence resides in the temperature forecast which due to conditions mentioned above, below normal highs ranging through the 70s are expected, with near normal lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with LLWS and some southerly breezes being the main weather parameters of note. A low level jet will continue to move along the international border through 13z Friday, bringing 30-40 kts of southwest flow over light southerly winds at the surface during that time. LLWS will mainly impact MSS. South winds increase after 14z, and gusts of 15 to 20+ kt will be common, especially in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. These winds will abate after sunset. Otherwise, just SCT-BKN mid/high clouds to prevail at all terminals through 00z Saturday. Ceilings lower thereafter with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms developing. Have kept mention of precipitation limited to VCSH since showers will be scattered through 06z. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html