Expires:202207052000;;719008 FPUS51 KBTV 051042 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 637 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 VTZ018-052000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 637 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 .TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. South winds around 10 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. $$ Expires:202207051100;;718639 ASUS41 KBTV 051030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-051100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 59 54 83 CALM 30.05F MONTPELIER MOCLDY 56 51 84 CALM 30.13S MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 52 50 93 CALM 30.09S ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 52 49 89 MISG 30.09S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 52 50 92 CALM 30.12S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 57 55 91 CALM 30.07F RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 59 53 80 SE7 30.10S SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 58 55 90 CALM 30.11S HIGHGATE* FAIR 60 59 96 SE3 30.04S NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 92 SW5 30.09S BENNINGTON CLOUDY 60 55 83 CALM 30.09F ISLAND POND* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 57 52 82 S20 N/A $$ Expires:No;;719389 FXUS61 KBTV 051047 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 647 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A developing area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring scattered light showers to the region this morning, followed by round of more moderate showers and some embedded thunder this afternoon through midnight. Drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a chances for showers on Friday. Another beautiful weekend is expected with sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 647 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is good shape at this time with the only change made was to delay timing of chance PoPs across the St. Lawrence Valley by a couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Previous Discussion from 322 AM... Overall no major changes made to the forecast through Wednesday with the highlight being a developing area of low pressure over the Great Lakes this morning which will dive into central NY this afternoon and off the New England coastal waters tonight. While there remains some differences in model output on the exact timing and intensity of rainfall, consensus is for 2 batches of rain to move through the forecast area, the first of which being very disjointed and very light along the leading edge of a weak frontal boundary and enhanced area of PWATs > 1.5". Upstream obs show precipitation along this boundary falling out of a mid- level cloud deck with no surface visibility restrictions and accumulations generally 0.1" or less. The second and more substantial batch comes later this afternoon as the surface low shifts into western NY and on the nose of a 40-50kt 850mb jet which tracks through the southern Adirondacks and central/southern VT. Little convective development is expected as the best instability will be south of the region, but a little MUCAPE up to 250 J/kg may provide a few rumbles across central/southern portions of the region. After midnight, precipitation will diminish from west to east as the surface low pulls offshore and much drier air at the mid-levels begins to work into the region. Storm total rainfall amounts will vary widely, especially if any convective elements develop, but basin averages will likely be around 0.5" with some higher amounts possible. The trailing cold front and some additional shortwave energy don't pass through until closer to 12Z Wednesday so there could be a few lingering showers across northern areas in the morning, especially across the higher terrain under severely blocked flow, but overall rapid clearing is expected through the day with clear skies developing by sunset. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 AM EDT Tuesday...West to northwest flow aloft prevails as 1016mb high pres from central Canada builds into our fa. This wl result in dry conditions with comfortable temps. Have noted guidance trending cooler for lows on Weds Night/Thurs morning associated with mainly clear skies and light winds. These conditions should support lows in the l/m 40s NEK/SLK to mid 50s urban islands of the CPV. A few spots in the upper 30s definitely possible in coldest mtn valleys on Thurs morning. Otherwise...expecting mostly sunny and mild conditions on Thurs with some mid/upper lvl debris clouds in the westerly flow aloft crossing our cwa from time to time. Progged 925mb temps 18 to 20C, support highs very similar to the 4th of July, with values in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the warmest valley cities. Did lower aftn dewpoints into the mid 40s to lower 50s, which is toward the 10% NBM values and supported by soundings indicating mixing of drier air around 850mb toward the sfc. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 322 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper lvl trof wl prevail acrs the ne conus into the upcoming weekend with only window for unsettled wx on Friday. Still some uncertainty on potential phasing of southern and northern stream s/w's and how robust sfc low pres becomes. Latest 00z ECMWF is more aggressive with phasing energy and sfc low pres development and associated qpf acrs our cwa, while NAM/GFS shows a split system wl minimal impacts. For now have continued with schc/low chance pops as modeling and tracking potential convective induced s/w energy and low pres is challenging at day 4. However expecting the better moisture and instability to remain south of our fa, given west- northwest flow at 700 to 500mb, helping to deflect the heat/humidity. By the weekend guidance in very good agreement showing another Canadian high pres building into our cwa from central Canada. This wl result in dry conditions with cool nights and mild days. Have lowered mins on Sat and Sunday nights, based on position of sfc high pres and potential for clear skies and light winds. In addition, GFS/ECMWF show progged 850mb temps anomalies of 4 to 5C below climo normals on Sat. Lows upper 30s to l/m 50s looks reasonable with coolest values in the NEK/SLK region and warmest in the urban heat islands of the CPV. Highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80F for the weekend. Next system approaches sometime early next week with chance pops in the fcst, as temps climb back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the day until this afternoon where a mix of MVFR/VFR is expected. An approaching frontal boundary to our south will spread scattered light rain showers into the region this morning, with areal coverage increasing this afternoon through evening where periods of MVFR visibility will be likely. Ceilings should remain generally VFR through the afternoon until lowering to MVFR in the more moderate rain, and after the rain subsides in the evening further lowering to IFR is likely at KSLK. Light and variable winds this morning will become south at 5-10 knots between 12-14Z with gusts up to 18 knots possible, especially at KBTV and KRUT. Brief low level wind shear is also like at KMPV and KRUT from 02-06Z as winds aloft increase to 30-40kts. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Lahiff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html