Expires:202207162000;;335861 FPUS51 KBTV 160723 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 VTZ018-162000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows around 60. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. .MONDAY...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s. .THURSDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. $$ Expires:202207161100;;343529 ASUS41 KBTV 161030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-161100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 60 53 77 SE5 30.11S MONTPELIER PTCLDY 53 48 83 CALM 30.19S MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 51 49 92 CALM 30.15S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 50 49 96 CALM 30.18F MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 56 55 95 CALM 30.13S RUTLAND* MOCLDY 58 55 90 S3 30.15F SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.17S HIGHGATE* FAIR 59 58 96 SE3 30.10S NEWPORT* FAIR 53 51 92 SW6 30.15F BENNINGTON PTCLDY 54 32 43 CALM 30.16S ISLAND POND* N/A 46 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 52 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 54 82 SW9 N/A $$ Expires:No;;337829 FXUS61 KBTV 160808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Outside variable mid to high clouds, high pressure will bring seasonably warm and dry weather to the area today into Monday morning. By Monday afternoon into Tuesday several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to affect the area, some with potentially heavy rainfall. Thereafter, active weather continues into later next week with additional showers and storms possible by next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected across the area over the next 36 hours as surface high pressure holds across the area. A weak shortwave aloft will pass through the region later today with little fanfare other than scattered to broken mid to high level cloudiness. While I can't rule out an isolated shower or stray storm across far southern counties later this afternoon, lower to mid levels remain dry enough to preclude any mention in the forecast at this point. Given the abundance of ci/cs aloft today, I did back off another degree or two for high temperatures, offering values generally in the 78 to 84 range under light south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph. Then trending mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight into Sunday under a continued light wind regime. Lows generally seasonable in the 50s to around 60, with Sunday highs a tad warmer than today ranging from 82 to 87. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Main focus of the period remains a rare widespread soaking rainfall which is expected to produce an axis of heavy rain along its storm track. Low pressure will be in its mature stage as it likely tracks through the St. Lawrence Valley Monday afternoon/evening. Initial precipitation may consist of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, particularly with a slower and more northwest track, with enough surface heating and moisture (temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 60s) to generate moderate instability. Modest wind speeds aloft during this time suggests any thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning but primarily heavy rainfall rates. Strong upper level diffluence associated with the upper level shortwave digging just upwind of the North Country will help create a deep column of rich moisture that can be rung out efficiently. Steady rain will at times be heavy through the period, especially where precipitation is focused via frontogenetic lift and where the storm's commahead moves overhead Monday night, additional heavy rain will be possible which could introduce greater risk of excessive rainfall and minor flooding. At this time, only a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is highlighted by the WPC areawide with some question as to if the heaviest rain will move over our relatively wet areas; antecedent dryness over most of Vermont would reduce the threat for flooding if the heavier rainfall tends to be farther south/east. Currently the greatest area of concern is over the northern New York into far northwestern Vermont, which fits the consensus of the EPS (ECMWF ensemble). While the GFS and CMC ensemble members tend to be less wet and farther south with the heavier rainfall, the 00Z deterministic guidance has the GFS more in line with the NAM/ECMWF in the focus of heavier precipitation across our northern/western areas. Therefore, the current forecast has drawn the rainfall amounts with less influence from the CMC. However, the preferred scenario also is a little slower than what the 00Z GFS shows, which also allows for warmer conditions and better chance of seeing thunderstorms at the onset of the event. Not much change in thinking compared to the previous forecast, but will have to keep in consideration the possibility of a faster onset of clouds and rain that would lower these temperatures considerably. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Active period of weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with plenty of heat and humidity still in place. Depending on how the rainfall on Monday shakes out, some areas will be primed for flash flooding with additional heavy rain associated with thunderstorms. While the current forecast does shows heat index values peaking near or below 90, I see some potential for 90-95 heat index on Wednesday in particular when more persistent sunshine is possible to boost temperatures with high humidity in place. On Tuesday, northwest flow aloft should support increasing wind shear and accompanying daytime instability indicates potential strong thunderstorms. If there is a focusing mechanism for lift, organized convection with a wind threat will be present. At this time, there is too much model variability to get excited but will need to keep an eye on trends. Otherwise, it will be a warm and humid day with breezy westerly winds in the wake of the departed low pressure system that will have intensified as it moved into the Canadian Maritimes. More question marks remain for Wednesday aside from continued warm and humid conditions. While high temperatures are looking similar to Tuesday, rising into the middle and upper 80s in most areas, have noted the NBM 75th percentile is a bit warmer relative to the previous day. This data suggests potential for it to be the hottest day of the stretch and best chance of 90 degree temperatures barring cloud cover associated with a frontal boundary that may be in our vicinity. Poor agreement on location and timing of this feature supports a low chance of showers and thunderstorms, which look more favorable in our southern areas. By Wednesday night or Thursday morning, a warm front will lift through the region. On Thursday, a much stronger weather system, an anomalously deep low pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the North Country and potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms looks good. It will likely be in its decaying phase as an occluded front will be the focusing mechanism for organized thunderstorms in our area. With large height falls as the large occluded low barrels eastward, thunderstorms will easily blossom. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with any deep convection, as moderate to high levels of deep layer shear should be present and instability should increase as the mid and upper air cools. The system will be slow to depart so will expect some more shower chances on Friday, although the convective threat is unclear at this time. Temperatures should remain on the warm side of normal but the low level air mass will have cooled enough to support a bit lower highs compared to earlier in the week with upper 70s to mid 80s currently forecast. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR expected through the period under surface high pressure. Light winds this morning generally trend south/southwesterly from 5-10 kts this afternoon, then light again after 00Z. High level moisture will foster SCT/BKN cigs generally above 200 AGL through the 12-18Z time frame, thinning thereafter. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html