Expires:202207182000;;448980 FPUS51 KBTV 180729 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 VTZ018-182000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 325 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 .TODAY...A chance of showers this morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Not as warm with highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall until midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Humid with highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. .THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 70s. Lows around 60. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. $$ Expires:202207181100;;456860 ASUS41 KBTV 181030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-181100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 68 62 81 CALM 29.94S MONTPELIER CLEAR 60 56 86 CALM 30.04R MORRISVILLE CLEAR 56 54 93 S3 29.99S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 58 57 96 CALM 30.03S FOG MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 69 65 88 CALM 29.96S RUTLAND* CLEAR 66 63 90 SE9 29.99S SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 62 61 96 CALM 30.01R HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 66 65 96 CALM 29.92F NEWPORT* FAIR 61 58 91 SW6 29.99F BENNINGTON PTCLDY 68 64 87 SE3 29.99S ISLAND POND* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 66 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 63 83 S16 N/A $$ Expires:No;;452284 FXUS61 KBTV 180826 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An active week of weather will begin with a widespread soaking rainfall with some downpours today. An extended period of very warm and humid conditions will follow Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and more showers and thunderstorms are likely for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Monday...A welcome soaking rainfall is coming this afternoon and evening. Estimated relative soil moisture in the 10 to 40 cm layer suggests that even in the relatively wet areas of the Adirondacks, a flood threat will be localized and tied to poor drainage areas. No big changes to what has been advertised in recent days, as we expect a long duration of rain with some convective elements that will create brief very heavy rainfall. Tropical-like rain is evident in thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley early this morning where dew points are in the upper 60s to low 70s. These types of dew points/muggy air will arrive in our area today. The CIRA satellite-derived advected layer precipitable water shows a plume of surface to 850 millibar moisture lifting northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into this convection. This air will follow the warm sector northeastward along the track of the low pressure system passing over the eastern Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. As the storm moves northeastward, so too will a warm front. This front will be the focus for the first round of widespread rain between about noon and 6 PM. Then we should see increasing instability in the warm sector that should result in cellular activity with brief torrential rainfall from about 6 PM through midnight; forecast soundings show the classic tall, skinny CAPE associated with moist adiabatic lapse rates and warm cloud depths in excess of 13,000 feet and precipitable water of around 2.1". Thereafter, the low pressure system will move eastward over northernmost New York and Vermont which will cause winds to shift to the west, and with lingering moisture above mountain height we should transition into a short period of upslope rain showers in a slow moving or blocked flow regime. Meanwhile, muggy air will persist and as winds Total storm rainfall still looks to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range for most locations, with locally higher amounts over 2 inches expected. Then for Tuesday, still expecting ample humidity at the surface while dry air moves in on westerly flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine will result in a return to hotter conditions after a day of rain cooled air, and this will likely be the first of three very warm days in a row. The heat and humidity will set the stage for isolated to scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Given ample 0-6 km northwesterly bulk wind shear in the 30-40 knot range overlaying an area of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE, an SPC marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in roughly the northern half of Vermont and most adjacent northern New York looks reasonable at this time. A higher risk level would have to overcome the relatively poor surface convergence and dry air aloft that should limit areal coverage of severe weather. If we realize the higher end of the instability, both wind and hail threats will be possible, so stay weather aware Tuesday afternoon, especially looking to your north. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... * Hot and Humid conditions are expected Wednesday * The tail end of a passing cold front will be exiting the North Country Tuesday night, but some lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm will remain possible until around midnight. The biggest issue will be that temperatures will only cool into the mid/upper 60s for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys while the flow pattern remains west to southwest. Effectively, the boundary will not be strong enough to scour out low level moisture with winds advecting higher dew points for Wednesday while partially clearing skies allow heat to build. The result will be a sultry day with increasing concerns for heat related illness as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees; apparent temperatures will be in the low 90s for main valleys and upper 80s elsewhere. Models have been sliding warmer over the last few runs for Wednesday with 925mb temperatures around 22-25C in some instances; it's feasible that this trend will continue and heat related concerns will increase. The warm nose at 925mb will likely keep convection capped as well through the prime heating hours for much of the afternoon until instability increases as the next system begins to approach late in the afternoon or possibly in the evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday...Mid range models continue to present a potent cold front with upper level dynamic support to push through the region Wednesday night through Thursday night. Some model consensus is forming on the front and back ends of the system, but timing variances remain between deterministic and blended model guidance. While individual models continue to differ with exact timing of the frontal boundary and period of best forcing, it's reasonable to assume that some will likely occur Thursday. Thunderstorms through Thursday night: Forcing with the negatively tilted trough will be sufficient to expect at least the potential for thunderstorms ahead and along the boundary Wednesday night through Thursday night. For Wednesday night, best chances for showers will be towards the Saint Lawrence Valley before shifting east across Vermont Thursday and Thursday night. Shear will be ample with this system as well supporting the idea of some potential for a stronger cell during peak heating on Thursday afternoon. PWATs are looking like they will approach/possibly exceed 1.5" with the system with periods of heavy rain possible. Flooding chances will be conditional on how much rain occurs Monday-Tuesday and where heaviest rainfall happens to fall on Thursday; this will be something we'll be reevaluating over the next couple of days. Of course, phasing/timing of particular features may change over the next few days, so these specifics will be further refined. Heat: Again, no scouring of low level moisture will occur with southerly flow and cloud cover Wednesday night. Thursday is shaping up to be warm as well, especially for Vermont which will be more delaying in precipitation chances as the front approaches. Temperatures will not build as much as Wednesday given increasing chances of rain in the afternoon on Thursday, but dew points will be higher; another uncomfortable day is expected with apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Conditions remain unsettled heading into the weekend behind the front with westerly winds aloft and broad cyclonic flow with a weak surface boundary in place. While there will be chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms, temperatures should be trending back towards seasonal averages with highs int he upper 70s to low/mid 80s for the North Country. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue through 12Z with mid/high clouds increasing from the south and west. In the 12Z to 18Z period, a warm front will bring widespread rain northward and cause deteriorating conditions, including MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities in heavier rain. In the 18Z to 00Z period, the warm front will lift through the region which will support better chances of heavy rain and IFR conditions, along with a low chance of thunder, especially at MPV and RUT. Light winds overnight will increase from the south-southeast at 5-10kts with occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range. Between 00Z and 06Z as low pressure passes to the north and east, winds will turn westerly at MSS and SLK with precipitation winding down. Elsewhere mainly southerly winds will increase into the 8 to 12 knot range with brief gusts to 22 knots with showers and associated MVFR/IFR conditions continuing. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...A widespread, and largely beneficial rainfall event is expected across the area on Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Most realistic deterministic solutions would argue for a period of steady rainfall for most areas during this period, with locally heavier amounts possible with embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Basin average rainfall should generally range from 1 to 1.5 inches across the forecast area, with local totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible in most persistent rainfall. Areas in the St. Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks and into northwestern VT appear to stand the greatest chance to receive higher amounts. Given the fact that these amounts will fall over the course of an 8-12 hour period, excessive rainfall and the overall threat of flooding appears low at this time. However, WPC does maintain a marginal risk of flash flooding Monday into Monday evening, and localized, minor poor drainage flooding is possible in areas of heaviest rainfall. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Kutikoff HYDROLOGY...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. 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