Expires:202207192000;;506764 FPUS51 KBTV 190730 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 VTZ018-192000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 .TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs around 80. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s. Lows around 60. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. $$ Expires:202207191100;;514426 ASUS41 KBTV 191030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-191100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 69 67 93 W5 29.65R MONTPELIER PTCLDY 68 64 87 NW13 29.70R MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 68 65 90 CALM 29.66R LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 66 63 89 W8 29.66R MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 66 66 100 E3 29.67S RUTLAND* CLOUDY 68 68 100 NW5 29.69R SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 72 65 78 NW13G18 29.64R HIGHGATE* FAIR 68 67 96 CALM 29.64S NEWPORT* CLOUDY 67 64 91 NW8 29.65R BENNINGTON CLOUDY 69 64 84 W8 29.72R ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A NW6 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 66 N/A N/A W1 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A W29G49 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS $$ Expires:No;;510259 FXUS61 KBTV 190846 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 446 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be mainly dry outside of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of strong winds and small hail. Heat and humidity will be with us through the next several days, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday when heat index values will reach into the low 90s in many locations. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward on Thursday, followed by more chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday... *Strong thunderstorms possible today* *Hot and Humid conditions on Wednesday* Active weather continues today with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Good heating and associated dry adiabatic lapse rates will eat away at the morning CIN, with CAPE growing into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range and exist as a relative maximum across the northeastern US. The latest SPC day 1 convective outlook shows a marginal (level 1) risk of severe thunderstorms areawide in an environment with effective shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. I believe this coverage was expanded southward in deference to somewhat varied CAM depiction of storm initiation. In today's convection, uncertain mesoscale triggers, rather than a larger synoptic scale forcing, will be capable of generating strong updrafts out ahead of any more organized storms late in the day. The potentially organized thunderstorms will be associated with a strong low pressure system in northern Quebec, as it will be dragging multiple boundaries southeastward. The first one may trigger thunderstorms that move across northeastern Vermont, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the early afternoon. CAMs have somewhat varied ideas as to if thunderstorms will be triggered due to differential heating farther south during the afternoon. West/west-northwest flow will also tend to advect somewhat drier air into the region. Soundings show a vertical V shape that support potential damaging wind and large hail threats for the strongest thunderstorms that develop today. The main focus for Wednesday will be increasing heat as weak upper level ridging builds into the region, and the rising heights will be accompanied by increasing temperatures. Current maximum wet bulb global temperatures look to be in the extreme category in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys due to hot and humid conditions with light wind and abundant sunshine. Have held off on a heat advisory with questions as to how high our dew points will be, which as of now are not forecast to be high enough to get heat index values into the 95 + range. Another complicating factor is a lot of model guidance is suggesting that showers and non-severe thunderstorms develop in the early afternoon which could alleviate the heat somewhat. Not fully buying a wide extent of thunderstorms, but the amount of instability expected and low shear could result in pulse-type thunderstorms once the cap is overcome. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday... * Strong Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday * It will be a muggy Wednesday night, especially if showers and thunderstorms do not develop to cool things off. An influx of deeper moisture in strong southerly low level flow will make it hard for the temperature to fall much in advance of an anomalously strong low pressure system. This system will bring particularly strong wind fields aloft, setting the stage for potential severe thunderstorms. In particular, the 700 and 850 millibar level southwesterly winds over our region will be above the climatological 99th percentile Thursday, and that means once again any strong updrafts in thunderstorms could bring damaging winds to the surface in the form of a downburst. The high dew point air and expected sunshine out ahead of a ribbon of deeper moisture and linear convection will be supportive of hot conditions again, although it currently looks like the level of heat will be a bit below that of Wednesday. Given that a series of pre-frontal troughs will be the forcing for thunderstorms, have continued to have categorical chances of precipitation throughout the day but for any given location it will actually rain for only a short period of time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure expected to exit the region Thursday night with lingering showers mainly in northeastern Vermont. Temperatures will trend slowly downward for Friday as upper flow goes more zonal with the departing low pressure peeling northwestward towards the Hudson Bay. This flow pattern will keep more neutral thermal advection rather than scouring heat from the North Country. Still, temperatures will marginally cooling into the mid/upper 80s for Friday. More noticeably, will be the overnight temperatures dropping back into the upper 50s to low 60s allowing for cooler morning starts. Temperatures trend back towards seasonal averages over the weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s as broad cyclonic flow dips across the North Country. This will favor daily chances of showers and potential for afternoon thunderstorms with several waves moving along the southern rim of the cyclonic curvature. Models differ vastly on timing of individual waves, so kept a blanket slight chance to chance of showers mentioned through Monday. Deterministic runs do hint at another more consolidated front possibly moving through Monday or Tuesday which may become a focus for stronger convection. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...A surface cold from is pushing northwest to southeast at the initial hour of the forecast; currently draped across the northern Champlain Valley. This front will continue to bring periods of precipitation to Vermont terminals with some more limited shower chances at PBG and SLK for the initial hour. MVFR/IFR CIGs will linger with ample low level moisture despite northwesterly, and relatively drier, flow. Where clouds do break out, MVFR/IFR VIS will be a concern with mist/fog formation with SLK, PBG, and MSS being the most likely terminals to experience these conditions through around 10Z. CIGs begin to break in earnest around 12Z with VFR and breezy westerly flow; gusts up to 22kts possible for terminals with average gusts 15-20kts. After 18Z, another weaker frontal boundary is expected to push through the North Country with potential for showers and isolated thunder mainly over terrain and for northeastern Vermont. Have mention of VCSH for EFK which stands the best chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm, but can't rule out a 10-15% chance for any terminal. Gradients relax by 00Z with frontal boundary out of the North Country. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Boyd - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html