Expires:202207212000;;619593 FPUS51 KBTV 210752 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 VTZ018-212000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 .TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail until midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. $$ Expires:202207211100;;626836 ASUS41 KBTV 211030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-211100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 80 66 62 S8 29.56F MONTPELIER CLEAR 75 64 68 S6 29.67F MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 68 66 93 CALM 29.61F LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 70 65 85 CALM 29.68F MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 78 66 67 S7 29.59F RUTLAND* PTCLDY 71 66 84 SE8 29.65F SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 65 64 97 CALM 29.66F HIGHGATE* FAIR 82 68 64 S12 29.53F NEWPORT* FAIR 72 69 92 SW6 29.63F BENNINGTON MOCLDY 73 66 78 SW5 29.65F LAKE EDEN* N/A 73 N/A N/A SW3 N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 68 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DIAMOND ISL* N/A 79 68 69 SE12 N/A $$ Expires:No;;620492 FXUS61 KBTV 210804 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 404 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Main weather threat today will be strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward. Temperatures will remain uncomfortably warm today with heat index values generally from the upper 80s to low 90s and values in the upper 80s expected to continue through the weekend before appreciable cooling occurs early next week. After dry conditions Friday and part of Saturday, the next frontal system could bring another round of thunderstorms to the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... * Potential for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, especially for Vermont. * Heat index values will be 90-95 degrees today with some concerns for heat illness for those outdoors. As of 402 AM EDT Thursday... Thunderstorms: A potent wave will be pushing through the region today bringing strong to severe thunderstorms mainly across Vermont. Current radar shows a couple of prefrontal lines of showers across Adirondacks and the Saint Lawrence Valley. These areas will become the focal point for convection later this morning as temperatures rise with surface dew points in the 70s. Ample CAPE(1500-2500J/kg) and shear(30-40kts) coincident with forcing will allow for strong updrafts. Hodographs are generally straight, so multicells to bow structures still seem the most likely mode with gusty winds and hail the primary threats , but some discrete cells aren't out of the question either; possibly at initiation before cells congeal into bows. A lower potential of tornadoes seems reasonable given 100-200 0-1km helicity. The first line will reach the Champlain Valley 11-Noon local time with little in the way of inhibition. Expecting a rapid initiation of cells with temps already in the upper 80s. However, cloud cover and rainfall may limit some of the initial threat for severe cells in the central Champlain Valley. As forcing pushes eastward towards central and eastern Vermont, chances should increase for severe. The second area of forcing will arrive in the early/mid afternoon bringing another round of thunderstorms. The CAPE environment should be slightly less favorable for stronger storms with 1000-1500J/kg. Should some areas be missed by earlier convection and break out into the sun, localized CAPE would be higher and supportive of a stronger cell or two. By tonight, both waves will be east of Vermont with the area under some subsidence. For Friday, conditions will be drier, but CAMs do note a couple of disturbances in vorticity fields. Some showers and an isolated thunderstorm may be possible over terrain. Heat: Temperatures will be on the rise again today with highs in the upper 80s and heat index values 88-95 degrees. Conditions will be uncomfortable again, but should fall short of advisory criteria. Still, those with outdoor plans should carry extra water and limit activity during the hottest part of the day. Also, it's prudent to have a plan for lightning given the threat of thunderstorms today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...Large scale pattern indicates fast westerly flow aloft acrs cwa during this time frame with building instability aft 18z on Sat. This developing instability axis acrs northern NY, along with pw values near 1.5" and weak embedded vort could spark a few showers/storms. Main focus with limited sfc convergence would be acrs the eastern Dacks or associated with Lake Ontario lake breeze impacting the southern SLV. The bigger story on Saturday wl be the very warm temps again, as NAM/GFS suggest progged 925mb temps btwn 23-24C, supporting highs mid 80s to lower 90s. Wl trend toward the warmer side of guidance for highs on Sat. Soundings support some slightly drier air mixing toward the sfc on Sat aftn, with dwpts dropping back into 50s to near 60F, which should prevent areas reaching heat advisory criteria. Lows generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Friday night and again on Saturday night with some upper 60s possible in the CPV on Sat night, due to increasing southerly flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...Another active day with strong to severe storms possible on Sunday, along with very warm and humid conditions. Mid/upper lvl pattern continues to support a very fast westerly flow with an embedded s/w impacting the region on Sunday. Progged 500mb wind fields are btwn 45 and 60 knots, while 700mb winds are in the 45 to 55 knots, creating 0 to 6 km shear 45 to 55 knot range. Some question on amount of instability with latest guidance indicating the potential for some mid/upper lvl convective debris clouds. However, thinking with temps warming well into the 80s with sfc dwpts in the 60s, CAPE values should response into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg, supporting the threat for organized convection again on Sunday aftn. We will continue to monitor timing of boundary and energy in the jet stream winds aloft for helping to determine how robust convection can become. In addition, pws in the 1.7 to 1.9 range and boundary paralleling the mid/upper lvl flow, localized heavy rainfall and training of convection wl need to be monitored also. By early next week mid/upper lvl trof develops acrs the NE CONUS and best instability and moisture sags to our south. Also, good news much less humidity arrives by early next week, as flow becomes northwest and drier air in central Canada advects into our cwa, while pw values fall <1.0". Have lingering pops on Monday morning, but Tuesday into Weds should be dry with highs mid 70s to lower 80s and lows back into the upper 40s to lower 60s by Tues and Wed mornings. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Currently VFR, with a line of thunderstorms tracking towards MSS which could mix up to 40kts of winds to the surface given LLjet above the surface. Timed this convection in generally 0730-09Z. LLWS will continue to be an issue for area terminals as aforementioned LLjet tracks over the North Country. Have this line washing out as it progresses eastward towards SLK, but SLK may end up having a TS around 09-10Z. IFR Vis is currently being presented as haze at SLK - either the sensor is mischaracterizing mist, or there is smoke present, or the present weather sensor is experiencing a malfunction. For now, carrying BR until further diagnosis is possible. Winds are trending southerly, and will remain steady near 5 knots and then begin to gradually increase after 06Z. Winds aloft will be increasing a bit more quickly, especially over northern New York, and noted some LLWS at KMSS and KSLK through about 09Z. After 09Z, winds should increase to 9 to 14 knots with gusts 16 to 24 knots, though a bit longer to reach these speeds at KEFK and KMPV. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will approach KMSS and KSLK about 09Z to 11Z, and move east into Vermont about 15Z to 17Z. Additional storms will develop near or east of KSLK about 19Z to 22Z, moving east of the region about 00Z Friday. With any of these rounds, there could be a few storms capable of strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain that reduces visibility. At this time, it seems storms will not merge into clusters or lines, but this possibility is not out of the question. So most terminals have a mention of VCTS, but have included in a tempo for KEFK, KMPV, and KRUT where the chances will be highest, but the activity could be hit or miss. As the front shifts east, winds become southwesterly, remaining about 6 to 10 knots into 00Z Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Boyd/Haynes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html