Expires:202210122000;;283160 FPUS51 KBTV 120715 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 VTZ018-122000- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 .TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph, increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Breezy with lows in the lower 50s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows around 40. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s. $$ Expires:202210121100;;292022 ASUS41 KBTV 121030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2022 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-121100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLEAR 42 39 89 E3 30.17S MONTPELIER CLEAR 36 32 85 CALM 30.23R MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 32 29 88 CALM 30.21R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 30 92 MISG 30.21R LYNDONVILLE* N/A 33 32 97 CALM 30.22S FOG MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 45 45 100 S3 30.20R RUTLAND* PTCLDY 43 42 97 SE10 30.22R SPRINGFIELD FOG 35 35 100 CALM 30.25R VSB 1/4 HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 52 49 87 S3 30.15S NEWPORT* FAIR 41 39 91 S5 30.19R BENNINGTON CLEAR 39 32 76 CALM 30.23S ISLAND POND* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A LAKE EDEN* N/A 36 N/A N/A CALM N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A W24 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 48 82 S21 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 52 48 87 S12 N/A $$ Expires:No;;286643 FXUS61 KBTV 120819 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 419 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected through tonight with surface and upper level ridging over the region. A strong low pressure system will lift north of our region towards the end of the week, with attending strong cold front crossing our region Thursday night. Gusty south winds and widespread rainfall are expected with this frontal passage, followed by cooler and drier weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface and upper level ridges will be in place over our region this morning, with surface high sliding eastward during the daytime hours. This will lead to increasing southerly return flow and some increasing clouds towards the afternoon hours. Southerly flow will influence temperatures and will have a noticeably warmer day than the past several, highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, even with increasing clouds. Winds will gust out of the south up to about 25 mph by the afternoon. Clouds will increase and thicken from west to east through the day and overnight. Temperatures will be mild overnight due to the cloud cover and ongoing southerly flow, minimum temperatures will only dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A large upper level trough, and a surface low which will lift well to our north, will approach from the Great Lakes region and bring widespread rain to our region for Thursday into Thursday night as well as strong gusty winds ahead of the cold frontal passage. Will have increasing pressure gradient as the cold front approaches our region and a strong southerly 850 mb jet crossing the region as well. Rain will spread into our area from the west Thursday afternoon and make it's way eastward across our area, then exit Friday morning. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected with totals ranging from 1.5"-2.5" with isolated higher amounts. Any given location should see most of the precipitation fall in a 6 hour period. Strong frontogenesis and PWATs around an 1" with convergent low level flow, we remain in a slight risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. Continues to look like we'll have strong inflow off the Atlantic and the low levels will be very saturated, therefore heavy rainfall continues to be anticipated. Due to dry antecedent conditions, not expecting any large stem river flooding, but could have rises on creeks and streams. Rainfall amounts will be somewhat terrain enhanced over the Adirondacks and Greens, although much of the rain will be behind the powerful (925-850 millibar layer winds in the 45 to 55 knot range) low level jet, which will support widespread stratiform rain persisting behind the convective elements ahead of the front. Gusty southerly winds are expected ahead of the cold frontal passage as we see winds in excess of 50 mph at the top of the mixed level due to low level jet overhead. In our valley locations, frequent gusts in the 30 to 40 MPH range with some gusts over 40 MPH possible along with sustained winds in the 20 to 25 MPH range. Strongest winds will be realized in the higher terrain and also in downslope regions. At this time I feel that we'll stay below wind advisory criteria, though could see an isolated gust reach that criteria. Models continue to indicate some sort of fine line crossing our region and we could have an isolated rumble of thunder, though better chances for thunder are to our south. Temperatures will be mild once again ahead of the cold front on Thursday, max temps will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s, though brisk winds may not feel so warm. As rain moves into the area temperatures will level off and winds will calm down a bit. Temperatures will not drop too sharply Thursday night as this is just the initial front, and a secondary front will sweep through later on ushering in even colder air. Thursday night lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...The cold front will finish moving through Vermont early on Friday, with slightly drier air pushing into the forecast area behind it. Showers are expected to be largely isolated to the Northeast Kingdom, but the Canadian and NAM hint at a slower departure. Went with 70-80% PoPs for eastern VT early Friday, decreasing to 40-50% at most for the NEK late Friday. There is also the potential for more showers in northern New York from another shortwave as significant atmospheric drying is not anticipated. Added some slight chance of showers for the St. Lawrence Valley much of the day. With the upper level trough stretched across the Great Lakes, the general idea is that while heavy rain like that of Thursday isn't forecast, the weather will still be unsettled post-front. With of the bulk of moisture departing, clouds will also be decreasing throughout the day Friday, with more sunshine over northern New York despite the potential showers. Southerly winds are likely to decrease throughout the day, but channeling could still be possible through the Champlain Valley, and conditions could remain slightly gusty on the lake itself. Highs after the cold front won't be too chilly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, still slightly above average. Other than lingering rainfall and cloud cover in the Northeast Kingdom, most of the area will be drying out further Friday night, enforced by a dry slot at the 700mb level. PoPs highest in the Northeast Kingdom with around 30% early. Some models are spitting out showers for the Champlain Valley early in the night as a shortwave moves through, so included some teens PoPs to account for this, but overall chance is low due to dry air. Clouds are expected to decrease with even some clear spots developing. After all the rainfall into Friday morning, there's the potential for some fog to develop in the favorable valleys with winds calming a bit more and skies clearing. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s overnight, just around normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled conditions to continue this weekend and into next week as a ridge in the northwestern CONUS sets up a longwave trough to send front after front through the region. Saturday should be altogether pleasant with mostly sunny skies, above average temps, and dry weather, but southerly winds are expected to pick up again ahead of a boundary. Saturday night into Sunday morning, this boundary is anticipated to bring showers and increasing clouds through the forecast area. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s overnight. There could even be some snow mixed in on the highest peaks of the forecast area. Sunday could have high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most. Another boundary looks to bring showers and increased southerly winds on Monday and Monday night with highs during the day dropping into the 50s and higher terrain snow possible early next week as the cold pool aloft and upper trough drop into the area. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...VFR will prevail for most locations with only MPV with chances at MVFR/IFR with morning fog. Given drying soils, VIS/CIGs could be intermittent and crossing categories 08-12Z from VFR to IFR; managed this with a tempo group. Otherwise, terminals will be VFR with southerly breezes increases after 15-18Z with gusts as high as 20kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, Definite RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...A slowing cold front and negatively tilted shortwave are expected to interact with around 1.25-1.50" of precipitable water from the Atlantic late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, leading to heavy rainfall across the North Country Thursday and Vermont late Thursday through Thursday night. Total rainfall amounts of 1.50- 2.50" are expected, with highest amounts across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. There's potential for 6-12 hours of heavy rain. Leaf fall could clog drainage across the region leading to localized flooding. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Neiles HYDROLOGY...Storm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html