Expires:202304041500;;202556 FPUS51 KBTV 040741 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 VTZ018-041500- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 .TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of light rain until midnight, then a chance of rain or snow showers after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY...A chance of snow showers in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and freezing rain. Little or no snow accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs in the lower 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers or freezing rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs around 40. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. $$ Expires:202304041100;;210288 ASUS41 KBTV 041030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE APR 04 2023 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-041100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 38 35 89 CALM 30.01S TC 3 MONTPELIER CLOUDY 34 32 92 CALM 30.04S TC 1 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 32 29 88 CALM 30.02S FOG TC 0 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 30.02R LYNDONVILLE* N/A 32 31 99 CALM 30.02S FOG TC 0 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 40 40 100 CALM 30.01S TC 4 RUTLAND* CLOUDY 40 39 97 SE9 30.02S TC 4 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 41 36 82 CALM 30.04R TC 5 HIGHGATE* FAIR 34 32 94 CALM 30.02S TC 1 NEWPORT* FAIR 32 31 96 SW6 30.01F WCI 26 TC 0 BENNINGTON CLOUDY 43 35 73 SE3 30.02S TC 6 MT. MANSFIELD* N/A N/A N/A N/A W15 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 37 32 81 E2 N/A TC 3 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 39 34 81 S7 N/A TC 4 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 43 36 75 W2 N/A TC 6 $$ Expires:No;;207480 FXUS61 KBTV 040907 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 507 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will continue through Thursday with a mix of winter and spring conditions as a series of warm fronts moves through the area followed by a strong cold front. Total precipitation through Thursday morning will most likely range from a quarter inch in south central Vermont to one and a third inches in the St. Lawrence Valley, where some of the precipitation may accumulate as ice early Wednesday. Some ice accumulation in central and eastern Vermont may also occur Wednesday night. Cool conditions with dry high pressure to end the week will trend warmer for the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 507 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak high pressure over the region today will be squeezed by a stronger Canadian high pressure system and a long warm front extending from a large low pressure area in the central US. Early this morning, the lack of wind and the rain showers we saw last night has led to areas of dense fog along with chilly temperatures where low clouds had scattered. In contrast where low clouds remain, particularly the lower Connecticut River Valley and southern portions of the Champlain Valley, temperatures are starting out rather mild in the low and mid 40s. Variations in temperature will be one of the many forecasting challenges during the next couple of days as low level temperature advection will be shallow and limited while warm air surges northward aloft. For today's sensible weather, the zone of lower clouds and associated showers upstream will shift a bit northward with time, and rain chances accordingly will move into south central Vermont. Have bumped up chances to likely (~60%) of light rain for today in this area. Further north into the northern Adirondacks and north central Vermont chances of seeing wet weather decreases but it should be cloudy, while our northern areas will possibly see some weak sunshine today. As such, high temperatures in northern Vermont will tend to be a degree or two warmer on average than southern areas, generally ranging through the mid and upper 40s. Our precipitation chances that were mainly limited to south central Vermont will increase tonight across the area. A strong warm front extending east of the significant low pressure area over the Midwest will be elevated over our region. The cloud layer flow will be from west to east, the front will advect moist air northward, while near the surface cold air advection will be ongoing as the Canadian high pressure area to our north digs into northern Maine. In combination, strongly inverted temperatures will allow for pockets of sleet trending towards freezing rain as depth of cold air erodes, with best chances for ice accumulation occurring in the St. Lawrence Valley and near the International Border early morning. As typical during the spring, intensity of precipitation could overcome the solar radiation effects, as precipitation may be heavy freezing rain in localized areas Wednesday morning. At this time, chances of impactful ice accumulation or low but bears watching. In any case, given elevated instability during this period there may be rumbles of thunder in heavier showers. More frequent downpours through the day are favored in northern areas nearer to the stronger frontogenesis and upper level forcing. The focus on precipitation type late Wednesday shifts eastward as warming from the southwest overrides the existing surface cold in northern New York. The cold air damming signature expected along and east of the Green Mountains on Wednesday afternoon/evening is particularly strong in GFS output, which has been trending colder over the last several runs. Some ice accumulation is now indicated, mainly after dark and on elevated and untreated surfaces, in much of this region. Otherwise, expect south/southeast winds to really ramp up where the warm front lifts to our north in response to 50-55 knot 850 millibar winds; given a strong surface inversion, windy conditions with speeds at least 30 MPH will be mainly in higher terrain and near/on Lake Champlain. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...Very dynamic system will continue to impact the region during this time frame. A warm front will be poised just to our southwest Wednesday evening, eventually lifting across the area overnight on a southwest 50+ kt 850mb jet. There will be a deep warm nose over a shallow inversion of cold air, but expect areas from the Champlain Valley westward will have warmed above freezing by Wednesday evening. However, model consensus is growing that cold air will remain entrenched east of the Greens and will be slow to scour out overnight. The jet will also usher in copious amounts of moisture; PWATs will approach 1.5 inches, which is nearing a climatological maximum for early/mid April. Hence expect there will be a broad swath of showers that will cross our area Wednesday night, and given the aforementioned temperature profiles, this will likely start out as a period of freezing rain across eastern VT. Temperatures will slowly warm overnight, and expect the vast majority of eastern VT will be above freezing by 2 am or so. Until then, nighttime ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch will be possible in eastern VT, with locally higher amounts in far northeastern locations. Temperature trends will need to be watch closely; a slower arrival of above freezing temperatures will mean greater ice accumulations than currently indicated. The other concern for Wednesday night is the potential for thunderstorms, mainly across the southern St Lawrence Valley and southern Adirondacks, and down across central/southern VT. MUCAPEs of 100-300 J/kg will be possible as per the latest NAM, but overall expect storms to remain elevated given the aforementioned low level inversion. Therefore, the main threat would be heavy rainfall with any convection due to the high PWATs as mentioned above. While flooding is not anticipated at this time, ponding of water in poor drainage areas will be possible in heavier rainfall. There may be a brief break in the precipitation late Wednesday night/early Thursday, but expect things to flare back up on Thursday as a cold front crosses from west to east. Strong south flow ahead of this front will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s Thursday afternoon, with some locations in the southern Champlain/CT River Valleys exceeding 60F. A rumble of thunder or two will be possible in south central VT as the front moves through, as MUCAPE values will once again exceed 200 J/kg. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...Any lingering showers will quickly wind down Thursday evening, with much of the overnight to be dry. Thereafter, dry weather will prevail through the weekend as high pressure settles over the region. A weak upper vort will move overhead on Friday, but given the amount of dry air in place, don't expect much beyond increasing clouds, particularly over the higher terrain. The dry air/high pressure will also lend themselves to chilly temperatures in the teens and 20s Friday night and Saturday night, but daytime highs should warm to 35F to 45F on Saturday and 45F to 55F on Sunday. The ridge moves east of our area by Monday, and increased south/southwest flow will allow temperatures to approach 60F in many locations. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Aside from patchy fog at MPV early this morning, mainly a low impact period with VFR conditions and light winds for most of the region. A period of MVFR ceilings associated with light rain is expected at RUT through much of the day, and for a short time at SLK, on the northern edge of a frontal boundary, before improving towards 21Z. Depending on persistence of rain, MVFR ceilings at RUT could linger further than indicated and will monitor trends. Wind direction at northern sites PBG/BTV/EFK will eventually shift northerly in the 18Z to 21Z period, and northeasterly winds will pick up to around 10 knots at MSS. Elsewhere winds should remain light and variable. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely FZRA, Chance RA, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Kutikoff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html