Expires:202306241400;;659616 FPUS51 KBTV 240645 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 VTZ018-241400- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 .TODAY...Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this morning. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SUNDAY...Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. .MONDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. $$ Expires:202306241100;;669587 ASUS41 KBTV 241030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2023 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-241100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 72 69 90 S6 29.86S TC 22 MONTPELIER MOCLDY 69 65 86 CALM 29.94S TC 21 MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.90S TC 19 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 68 63 84 MISG 29.88F TC 20 LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 67 65 91 CALM 29.93F TC 20 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 69 69 99 CALM 29.88S TC 21 RUTLAND* PTCLDY 70 67 90 S6 29.90S TC 21 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 70 66 87 CALM 29.91S TC 21 HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A NEWPORT* RAIN 65 64 95 S3 29.91F TC 19 BENNINGTON CLOUDY 70 64 81 E6 29.89S TC 21 ISLAND POND* N/A 64 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 18 GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 17 LAKE EDEN* N/A 64 N/A N/A E1 N/A TC 18 MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 17 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 70 100 S6 N/A TC 21 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 68 94 S7 N/A TC 21 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 70 94 S7 N/A TC 22 $$ Expires:No;;659654 FXUS61 KBTV 240654 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 254 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Rainfall will overspread the region this morning with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the day. A brief lull in shower activity will be seen overnight tonight into Sunday morning before showers become more widespread Sunday afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through much, if not all, of next week so be sure to have that umbrella or rain jacket handy. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...A decaying upper level low over the Ohio Valley is beginning to devolve into an open wave early this morning with a potent shortwave rotating northward on the eastern periphery of this upper level feature. This shortwave has already begun to bring widespread rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and northern New York. This feature was analyzed well by the 00Z RAOBs from Virgina all the way to New York City showing PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches. As the day progresses, this feature is expected to push northward into the North Country and bring a significant push of moisture to the region with PWATs near 2.0" expected across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with lower values (near 1.75") expected across the remainder of the North Country. Given good synoptic forcing with this potent shortwave and an influx of deep moisture, the stage has been set for some heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The latest ensemble runs of the GEFS, NBM, and ECMWF all show probabilities exceeding 50% than much of our area could see between 0.75" and 1.0" of rain through 8 AM Sunday. It would not be surprising to see a few areas across the region see upwards to 2 inches of rain today as an embedded thunderstorms would significantly increase rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the 97th percentile today with warm cloud depths of 12kft which is more than sufficient to support rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour in the stronger storms today. In addition, the lack of any appreciable flow aloft (10 knots or so) will limit storm motions which could lead to localized flooding of poor drainage areas this afternoon. Flash flooding, for today, looks unlikely given the anomalously dry antecedent conditions but we will be monitoring radar closely today. Rainfall will taper off this evening as both instability wanes and the shortwave shifts to the north and east. Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave should create a period of quiet weather after midnight and continuing through much of Sunday morning. The remnants of the aforementioned upper level low will move overhead on Sunday which will spark additional showers and thunderstorms which will be primarily focused across the southern half of Vermont and northern New York. As with Saturday, PWAT values will be 2-3 standard deviations above normal which should support locally heavy rainfall once again. Areal coverage for thunderstorm activity on Sunday could be greater than that of Saturday given slightly better thermodynamic profiles. Again, we will need to monitor flood potential as we begin to enter a multi-day heavy rainfall event. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...Weak remnants of the upper low that has plagued the eastern CONUS continues to fill being a weak trof on the edges of a new closed low across the Great Lakes. Any shower activity from Sunday will dissipate Sunday night with the loss of instability and weak energy from this trof shifting east out of our area. On Monday...some vorticity advection pinwheeling around parent low will move across the region with marginal surface based skinny CAPES around 500j/kg and unidirectional southerly flow and PWATS 1.5-1.75 inches for heavy rainers as will be the story this weekend and much of the upcoming week. That being said...toward the very end of the period there is some developing 0-6km shear that maximizes late Monday night-Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...The overall big picture as you have heard already is that it will be wet, not raining all the time but when it does, some good soakers with increasing flood threat each successive day. It looks like some mid-level drying early Monday night between rotating shortwaves thus activity waning late evening-overnight locally. Meanwhile...strong shortwave and instability in Mid- Atlantic late Monday-Monday evening will develop strong convection and as that rotates north will weaken yet hold enough together for some shower activity moving back for early Tuesday-Tuesday morning. Tuesday will feature upper low shifting slightly east and going slightly negative with shortwave energy, instability, occluded front and PWATS still rich at 1.5-1.75 inches. Greatest threat appears across northern NY but these type of details can change. Added factor late Tuesday through Thursday is coupled jet structure to our south for large scale ascent to develop/enhance activity into our area with activity likely developing to our south and then just moving due north. Wednesday...very similar with surface low and boundaries still across our forecast area for greatest focus of shower/t-storm activity. On Thursday...slight eastward adjustment, upper low fills more with surface reflections riding more north of the area thus still active but more cellular in nature yet still good jet structure. Any day has a localized flood threat if some training of heavy rain showers/t-storms with chances increasing Tuesday/Wednesday due to increased ground saturation from previous rainfall and more synoptic lift/organization but Thursday susceptible as well. Friday...All above features should be shifting largely north and east of forecast area but still enough troughiness and residual moisture for a chance of showers. Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor drainage, flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Rainfall will overspread the North Country through the morning hours with rain expected at all terminals by 16Z. Conditions are currently high VFR but we will see these conditions deteriorate from south to north through the morning hours as rain begins to fall. Ceilings will generally range from 1500 to 2500 ft this afternoon but by these evening a few places may begin to approach IFR conditions as ceilings drop below 1000 ft. Visibilities overall will range from 4-6 SM in rain today but with thunderstorms possible this afternoon we could see brief IFR conditions where heavy rain falls. Rainfall will taper off between 00Z and 03Z with just some VCSH mentioned thereafter. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Isolated TSRA, Patchy BR. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA, Scattered TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Scattered TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Clay - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html