Expires:202306251400;;716737 FPUS51 KBTV 250647 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 VTZ018-251400- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 .TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this morning, then partly sunny with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly until midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .TUESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. $$ Expires:202306251100;;726988 ASUS41 KBTV 251030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-251100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 70 68 93 CALM 29.83R TC 21 MONTPELIER CLOUDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.89R FOG TC 19 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 65 64 97 MISG 29.80R TC 18 LYNDONVILLE* FOG 64 63 97 CALM 29.86R VSB 1/4 TC 18 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 65 65 100 CALM 29.84R FOG TC 19 RUTLAND* CLOUDY 67 67 100 CALM 29.85R TC 19 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 67 65 93 CALM 29.84R TC 19 HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A NEWPORT* MOCLDY 64 64 99 W3 29.85R TC 18 BENNINGTON MOCLDY 66 65 96 CALM 29.85R FOG TC 19 ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A W3 N/A TC 19 GALLUP MILLS* N/A 64 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 18 LAKE EDEN* N/A 0 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC -18 MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A NW16 N/A TC 16 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 70 100 CALM N/A TC 21 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 66 94 S6 N/A TC 20 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 68 100 S6 N/A TC 20 $$ Expires:No;;717870 FXUS61 KBTV 250712 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 312 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Rainfall will be less widespread today with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms being across southern Vermont. Patchy smoke is likely to move into northern Vermont and northern New York this afternoon and evening before lifting north Monday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday with many places seeing between a quarter and a half of an inch of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...A few rain showers linger across the North Country early this morning but these should be out of the area prior to daybreak. With many places across the region seeing in excess of a half of an inch of rain yesterday coupled with very light gradient/synoptic winds, we have seen a lot of fog and low stratus develop thus far. The trend should be to see fog continue to overspread much of the North Country through the pre-dawn hours and continue through around 8 or 9 AM before finally lifting and allowing for pockets of sunshine through the morning hours. Rainfall isn't expected to be as widespread today given the best forcing will remain south of the forecast area in the form of a decaying upper level low across Pennsylvania. This tiny feature will have quite an interesting impact of us today as it should allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of Vermont while also ushering in smoke from Canadian wildfires across northern Vermont and northern New York this afternoon. The location of the decaying low to our south will switch our surface winds to the north across northern Vermont and northern New York this afternoon. Taking a look at air quality sensors across Canada, there are high concentrations of the PM 2.5 which will advect into the region this afternoon under these northerly winds. We have been in contact with state partners and will likely be issuing an air quality alert for northern counties. Stay tuned for more on the smoke front by 9 AM. Looking back at the rainfall potential today, the areas that got hit hardest yesterday, northern New York through northwestern Vermont, should mainly stay on the dry side today while southern areas that received less rain will be under the bullseye today. Weak instability should allow for some decent convection to couple with an anomalously moist air mass to produce localized amounts in excess of an inch but most places will likely see less than half of an inch of rain throughout the day. Rain chances will spread northward tonight into Monday morning as a piece of shortwave energy lifts north. Models expect the surface layer to stabilize overnight but some elevated instability could still yield a few rumbles of thunder through the overnight period. Rain chances will greatly increase Monday afternoon as a combination of instability, increasing shear, and increasing upper level diffluence sets up across the North Country. This should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms given the increased shear and deep layer ascent. Severe potential looks very unlikely but given the moist air mass, we will need to watch for potential precipitation loading in stronger storms that could result in an isolated wet microburst. The bigger story will be yet another heavy round of rain with many places seeing between a quarter and half of an inch of rain with isolated locations easily exceeding an inch of rain. Rivers still remain low at this time but soils have begun to saturate so with each subsequent day the potential for areal flooding slightly increases. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...The next upper level low to cutoff and grudgingly fill and slide east across our area will be located across the Great Lakes spinning shortwaves across the northeast interacting with unstable moist air for showers/t-storms. One such activity will be exiting/abating our area Monday evening with t-storm activity upstream across PA/southern NY likely to diminish in intensity yet still bring about some heavy rain showers Monday night. Actually some decent deep shear of 35-40+ knots moving across may maintain some t-storms overnight. Trying to time individual shortwaves is difficult and almost foolish yet it looks like a decent break for Tuesday morning along with some mid-level drying with PWATS going from over 1.5 inches to between 1- 1.25 inches for some drying and potential sunshine to help heat and destabilize the atmosphere. Deterministic models/soundings differ but possibly 500-1000 j/kg with 0-6km 25-30 knot shear and replenishing PWATS of 1.5+ inches advecting back may lead to scattered t-storms and will just have to see how unstable for isolated wind threat, although low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...The overall big picture as you have heard already is that it will be wet, not raining all the time but when it does, some good soakers with increasing flood threat each successive day. The aforementioned upper low trudges slowly east through late week with continued daily chances of showers and a few storms. Again, best coverage should occur in the afternoon/evening hours with locally heavy rainfall remaining possible. Some uncertainty arises by Friday/Saturday as models slow the feature's progression to a near stall as potential remnants of TS Cindy track northward toward the Canadian Maritimes. Models show broad agreement on this scenario despite some differences in timing/strength of the tropical feature. As such, chances of showers will likely linger through these latter periods. The timing of which day/where the heaviest activity will be is tricky but will likely focus on the existing and filling upper low and surface features. This would mean more NY/SNE on Tuesday with very gradual shift eastward through Thursday then more scattered in nature as the main synoptic support has stalled just east of our area Fri/Sat. My concern is the potential interaction with a dual upper jet structure Tuesday through Thursday. Although the best divergence and lift are well south of the area, it should lead to organized convection that will lift north on deep, southerly mid-level flow and dissipate in intensity as it lifts but still provide some heavy rainfall with PWATS approaching 2 inches in the development region but still around 1.5 inches in our area. Saturday we just saw 1-2 inches of rain in a somewhat less organized set-up. Again, the main threat appears south, but close enough to pay attention. Any day has a localized flood threat if some training of heavy rain showers/t-storms with chances increasing Tuesday-Thursday due to increased ground saturation from previous rainfall and more synoptic lift/organization but Thursday susceptible as well. Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor drainage, flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Rainfall is quickly tapering off across the region but widespread rainfall today is likely to lead to widespread fog tonight/Sunday morning. Sites like KPBG and KSLK are already under IFR conditions due to fog and many sites are expected to follow suit over the next few hours. IFR to LIFR fog is expected at all terminals except KRUT with the fog lifting between 12Z and 13Z. Ceilings will quickly improve with all sites VFR by 16Z. Showers and thunderstorms will largely stay south of our terminals today so we have no obstruction to vsby included at this time. However, patchy smoke from wildfires to the north will reduce visibilities to 4-6 miles across our northern terminals this afternoon into the evening hours. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through the upcoming week. Rainfall with be less widespread today given weaker synoptic forcing with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms across southern Vermont. Record rainfall seems unlikely today but we could see potential records through much of next week given numerous showers and thunderstorms with an anomalously moist air mass in place. The table below shows record rainfall for our climate sites for the next week. Precip Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 06-25 2.32|1988 1.59|2012 1.43|2017 1.90|1988 3.59|2014 06-26 1.90|2006 2.31|2006 1.20|1983 0.99|1955 1.42|1958 06-27 1.45|1970 0.75|2002 1.04|1970 1.45|1970 1.86|2002 06-28 1.50|1892 1.57|2010 1.32|2010 1.23|2016 2.12|1994 06-29 1.79|2017 2.43|1982 1.90|2017 1.83|2017 2.19|2017 06-30 1.75|1973 3.33|1973 0.80|1958 1.65|1973 1.50|1998 07-01 2.54|1998 1.35|2017 0.88|2017 1.28|1976 1.82|1968 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Clay CLIMATE...Clay - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html