Expires:202306261500;;778745 FPUS51 KBTV 260734 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 VTZ018-261500- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 .TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers this morning, then showers this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall after midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 90 percent. .THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 70. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. .SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. .SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. $$ Expires:202306261100;;786843 ASUS41 KBTV 261030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2023 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-261100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 69 66 90 S3 29.77S FOG TC 21 MONTPELIER MOCLDY 67 64 90 S3 29.86S TC 19 MORRISVILLE FOG 67 65 93 S3 29.80S VSB 1/2 TC 19 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 68 66 93 MISG 29.80S TC 20 LYNDONVILLE* FOG 66 65 96 CALM 29.85S VSB<1/4 TC 19 MIDDLEBURY* FOG 65 65 100 CALM 29.78F VSB<1/4 TC 18 RUTLAND* MOCLDY 67 67 100 SE10 29.80S TC 19 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 68 66 93 CALM 29.82S TC 20 HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A NEWPORT* FOG 66 65 99 CALM 29.83S VSB 1/2 TC 19 BENNINGTON PTCLDY 65 63 93 SE3 29.79S TC 18 ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A NE1 N/A TC 19 GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 17 LAKE EDEN* N/A 66 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 19 MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A E18 N/A TC 16 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 68 66 94 S5 N/A TC 20 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 64 88 S10 N/A TC 20 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 66 64 94 SE6 N/A TC 19 $$ Expires:No;;782435 FXUS61 KBTV 260839 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 439 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected through at least Wednesday. With heavy rain expected with these thunderstorms, we will need to monitor the potential for localized flooding as many places have seen decent rainfall over the past 72 hours. As for the smoke, this will be lifting north through the morning hours with air quality and visibilities improving throughout the morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Smoke remains prevalent across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont this morning. Winds both aloft and at the surface are just beginning to switch to the south which should help displace the smoke to the north and out of the North Country. However, smoke will likely remain in place through at least 8 AM and could linger as late as noon given the latest guidance. Reduced visibilities and unhealthy air will continue to accompany this smoke so those who are sensitive are encouraged to stay indoors until conditions improve later this morning. Meanwhile, we are seeing showers and thunderstorms blossom across portions of Vermont and New York this morning as a front lifts north. Some moderate rain is being reported with these showers but they are moving north at close to 20 mph. This is limiting rainfall totals to less than two tenths of an inch but continues to gradually add to the rainfall totals seen over the past 72 hours. A lull in precipitation is expected following sunrise this morning before widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the North Country. Forecast soundings this morning show we could achieve upwards of 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 20 knots of 0-6 km shear between 18Z and 00Z which could support some organization to the storms this afternoon. When you couple the aforementioned thermodynamics and kinematics with large scale ascent in the form of upper level diffluence you set the stage for some strong to possibly even locally severe storms this afternoon. We will need to continue to monitor hydrology this afternoon as we have seen many 1-3 inch bullseyes of rain over the past several days. Should a strong thunderstorm drop heavy rain in already saturated conditions, we could see some localized flooding issues. Thunderstorm activity is expected to wane tonight but the latest HRRR and RAP show some elevated instability through the overnight hours which could lead to continued thunderstorm activity. Tuesday is looking like it'll be quite the wet day as we will see better jet dynamics, better upper level support, better thermodynamics, and better shear. Oh my! In all seriousness, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be hard to escape, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, given the favorable set up for convective storms. The potential for strong to locally severe storms cannot be ruled out but the lack of surface convergence should prevent widespread strong to severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Monday...More of the same for Tuesday night and Wednesday as upper level trough along with surface low and associated fronts drifts across our region. Showers with afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated, with moderate rain on Wednesday as well as storms will be quite slow moving. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Monday...Aforementioned upper low/trough remains in the picture through the end of the work week, moving incredibly slow and nearly atop the region through at least Friday. With modest upper support and an anomalously moist airmass in place (PWATS averaging around 1.5") a daily threat of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms will remain possible for these periods. Activity will be most focused during the afternoon/early evening hours when locally heavy downpours will be possible. Temperatures to show little change through the period with daily highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Still looks hopefully for this pattern to break down as we head into the weekend. However, another upper trough feature looks to settle in from the west/northwest fairly quickly by Sunday, so chances for showers continue through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Smoke remains the main concern early this morning with all northern terminals seeing vsbys between 2 and 3 SM. These lower vsbys will likely continue through 12Z before smoke lifts north back into Canada between 14Z and 16Z. A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the pre-dawn hours but will be isolated enough to not mention any prevailing shra or tsra in the current TAF package. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated by 16Z with many terminals likely to experience showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall with these storms will likely bring brief IFR conditions to some terminals and as we get a better idea on timing this morning we will begin to introduce some TEMPO groups into the TAFs. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the North Country. Given an anomalously moist airmass currently in place, heavy rainfall is expected with these storms as seen in previous days. Some places have seen 1-3 inches of rain from heavier storms in recent days and should some of these thunderstorms move over our climate sites, records may be broken not only today but also in coming days. Precip Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 06-26 1.90|2006 2.31|2006 1.20|1983 0.99|1955 1.42|1958 06-27 1.45|1970 0.75|2002 1.04|1970 1.45|1970 1.86|2002 06-28 1.50|1892 1.57|2010 1.32|2010 1.23|2016 2.12|1994 06-29 1.79|2017 2.43|1982 1.90|2017 1.83|2017 2.19|2017 06-30 1.75|1973 3.33|1973 0.80|1958 1.65|1973 1.50|1998 07-01 2.54|1998 1.35|2017 0.88|2017 1.28|1976 1.82|1968 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Clay CLIMATE...Clay - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html