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499
FPUS51 KBTV 050855 COR
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EST MON JAN 5 1998

VTZ001-002-005-009-052000-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...
WINOOSKI...VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EST MON JAN 5 1998

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANGING TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.  HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S.
SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.  CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MORE RAIN LIKELY.  LOW 35 TO 40.  SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MILD WITH SHOWERS.  HIGH IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-052000-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EST MON JAN 5 1998

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE BY NOON.  HIGH 35 TO 40.
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.  CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY.  LOW 35 TO 40.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MILD WITH SHOWERS.  HIGH IN THE MID 40S.  CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ011>014-052000-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 AM EST MON JAN 5 1998

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE SHOWERS LIKELY.  PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.  CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS.  LOW 35 TO 40.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MILD WITH SHOWERS.  HIGH 45 TO 50.  CHANCE OF RAIN 90
PERCENT.

$$




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733
FPUS03 KBTV 050651
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EST MON JAN 5 1998

MOTHER NATURE/S SKATING RINK IN PROGRESS OVR NORTH COUNTRY...
OTHERWISE WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND THRU MID-WEEK.

AT 06Z...1039MB ARCTIC HIGH NNE OF KHUL...SFC LOW OVR LWR GRT LAKES
AND AN ELONGATED TROF KSYR-KBTV-K1V4. SFC WRM FNT (RETREATED VERSION
OF ARCTIC COLD FRNT FM <24 HRS AGO) FM KERI-KNYC.

OVERRUNNING OF ARCTIC AIRMASS BROUGHT -SN TO FA ERLY LAST EVENING
BUT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY AN -FZRA EVENT.  LOCATION OF COLDEST TMPS
REFLECT SHALLOWNESS OF COLD AIR...ST LWRNC/CHMPL VLYS WHERE SFC TMPS
ONLY IN TEENS/L20S. MEANWHILE...M/U20S IN GRN MTNS/ADRNDKS AND CT
RVR VLY WITH AOA 0C IN SW VT (KLKP...34/ KSLK...25). IN FACT...SE
WND OVR SRN GRN MTNS IS CAUSING SOME STG DOWNSLOPE WNDS AND LKLY
SOME WRN\MG AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM: INVERTED SFC TROF MVS INTO ST LWRNC VLY BY 12Z MON BUT
STL THE COMBINATION OF SOME DECENT WAA ALOFT AND STRETCHED H5 VORT
AXIS MVG THRU NRN SECTIONS FOR AREAS OF STEADY PCPN IN THE MRNG
(MDLS DELIVER .05-.1 BTWN 12-18Z). THEREAFTER...SCT -SHRA ACTVTY.

PTYPE?!...MDL SNDG DATA HAS GOOD HNDL FOR KBTV/KMSS BUT STARTS SOME
2-4C COLDER THAN OBSERVED AT KMPV/K1V4 AND KMPV HAS SOUTH WND >10
KTS. IN ANY EVENT...WUD XPCT TMPS ABV FRZG AT KBTV BTWN 12-14Z AND
15-16Z ALG CNDN BDR BUT NOT TIL 18Z (PSBLY LTR) NRN ST LWRNC VLY
(KMSS-EAST). MAXES TDY LKLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN FWC AND PSBLY
ONLY M30S FOR ST LWRNC VLY.

STATUS OF WWA...TDY IS FIRST DAY BACK TO SCHOOL AND SOME TO WORK AFT
LONG HOLIDAY HIATUS. FIRST HUNCH IS KEEP WWA THROUGH TDY FOR ST
LWRNC VLY...MRNG FOR REST OF NRN NY AND MOST OF NRN VT (VTZ001>007)
...LEAVING CENT VT/ERN VT OUT OR ERLY THIS MRNG DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO 0C AND LGTR PCPN.  FINAL DECISIONS CAN BE MADE CLOSER
TO ISSUANCE AND MRNG UPDATE PKG CAN LIFT WWA AS WELL WHERE NEEDED.

.LONGER TERM: A RESPITE LTR MRNG THRU ERLY TNGT THEN MORE ORGANIZED
PCPN AFT MIDNIGHT INTO TUES MRNG.  SFC WRM FNT APPROACHES FA WITH
OVERRUNNINNG PTRN AND ANOTHER ELONGATED VORT LOBE TRAVELING WITHIN
MOIST SW UPPR FLOW.  BASICALLY A RAIN EVENT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME POCKETS OF -ZR IN ST LWRNC VLY (KMSS-EAST).

.TUES...RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS DRG DAY.  TRACK OF SFC LOW ALG/S OF
ST LWRNC VLY CUD MEAN STL A CHC OF -ZR IF LLVLS ARE NOT SCOURED OUT
BY 12Z TUES.

SLW


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