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760
FPUS51 KBTV 060813
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

VTZ001>004-062000-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...NEWPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN.  HIGH NEAR 40.  LIGHT WIND.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN LATE.  AREAS
OF DENSE FOG.  LOW 30 TO 35.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.  HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ005-009-062000-
CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...WINOOSKI...
VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN THIS MORNING.  A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  AREAS OF DENSE FOG.  LOW IN
THE MID 30S.  SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 40
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MORE RAIN.  HIGH 35 TO 40.  CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ006>008-010-062000-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  LIGHT WIND.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.  AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LOW 30 TO 35.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MORE RAIN.  HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S.  CHANCE OF RAIN 80
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ011>014-062000-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.  A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH 45 TO 50.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AREAS OF
DENSE FOG.  LOW NEAR 40.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  CHANCE OF RAIN 50
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MORE RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

$$




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452
FPUS03 KBTV 060711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EST TUE JAN 6 1998

TWO MAJOR PLAYERS IN UPCOMING FCST...SAME PLAYERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED
OUR FA THUS FAR IN RECENT DAYS.

FIRST...VRY MOIST...ACTIVE SRN JET ADVECTING COPIOUS AMTS OF
MOISTURE AND WRM AIR WL CONT IT/S DOMINANCE. FINALLY...IT WL
GENERATE AND LIFT ONE MAIN SFC LOW TOWARD GRT LAKES/NE MID/LATE WK.

SECOND...STG ARCTIC HIGH (1041MB) IN NRN QUEBEC ARD 70W HAS AND WL
REMAIN PARKED FOR NXT 24+ HRS.  THIS HAS PROVIDED VRY SHALLOW COLD
AIR TO SEEP SW INTO ST LWRNC VLY AND ALG CNDN BDR CTYS OF VT.

AS OF 06Z...KCXX ESTIMATES WELL OVR HALF INCH OF PCPN...IN THE FORM
OF ZR IN ST LWRNC VLY WITH KMSS RPTG 0.84 INCHES OVR PAST 24 HRS...
INCLUDING ANOTHER 0.15 WITHIN PAST 6 HRS.  NY POLICE RPT ICY ROADS
AND FINALLY SOME WDLY SCT RPTS OF BRANCHES DOWN/PWR OUTAGES ALG CNDN
BDR.

CRNT: AT 06Z...FNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS KYSC-KPLB-N KART AXIS WITH BLO
FRZG TMPS N AND ABV FRZG TMPS SOUTH. OVERRUNNING CONTS ALG/N OF FNTL
BNDRY WITH REGIONAL RDRS SHWG MORE DRAPED BACK INTO GRT LAKES.  I/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN ANY CNDN NEWS BUT WUD HAVE TO ASSUME MAJOR PRBLMS WITH
TMPS IN M20S...CONT NE DRAINIAGE AND ANOTHER HALF INCH LIQUID XPCTD.

SHORT TERM: RUC2 SHWS FNTL BNDRY RETREATING N BY 09Z AS SFC LOW IN
GRT LAKES APPROACHES WITH STGR WAA PTTRN.  KMSS WNDS HAVE BEEN ENE
ALL DAY ARD 7 KTS BUT AT 06Z HAVE GONE CALM...PSBLY A SIGN THAT
BNDRY IS MAKING A NORTHWARD PUSH?!  MEANWHILE...KBUF RDR "LIGHTING
UP LIKE A XMAS TREE" WITH TONS OF MOISTURE.  MDLS INDICATING ANOTHER
1/4 INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN ST LWRNC VLY THRU 15Z...JUST HOW MUCH IT
FRZG FORM.  DESPITE HINTS OF A LIFTING OF FNTL BNDRY TO N OF ST
LWRNC VLY ARD/AFT 12Z...ANOTHER 0.25+ CUD FALL BY THEN AND LEANING
TWRD UPGRADING TO WSW OR STRONGLY WORD ICE BUILD-UP PSBLTYS IN
SPSBTV.

ELSEWHERE...-RA OVR LAKE ONTARIO WL MOVE ACRS NRN NY/VT (INCLDG
KBTV) INTO MID-MRNG IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW XPCTD TO TRACK ALG CRNT
FNTL BNDRY POSN.  THEREAFTER...IT SHLD REMAIN CLDY WITH -DZ.

.TNGT...PSG OF SFC LOW THIS AFTN AND STG/PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH AND
DRAINAGE AS WITNESSED PAST 24 HRS...WUD SUSPECT SOME LLVL CAA TO
MOVE BACK INTO SAME LOCALES AS CRNTLY AFFECTED.  HWVR...NO PUSH
BEING SUGGESTED BY MDLS ATTM BUT I/D LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND
XPCT TMPS TO FALL BLO FRZG AGAIN.  ATTM...KBTV SHLD STAY ABV FRZG.
LGT WNDS AND LOTS OF LLVL MOISTURE SHLD SPELL AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WITH A RETURN OF SOME PCPN (-RA) IN SRN ZONES BY WED MRNG.

LONGER TERM: SRN STREAM SFC LOW MVG N ALG LWR MS RVR VLY TOWARD OH
RVR VLY BY WED NGT.  FA POISED AGAIN FOR MORE RAINS AND THE
QUESTIONS REMAINS ABT LLVL COLD AIR ALG CNDN BDR.  STRENGTHENING LOW
TO OUR SOUTH WITH ARCTIC HIGH TO N (AS SFDALB MNTNS) SHLD ACCNT FOR
DECENT PRS GRADIENT AND N CIRCULATION AS DEPICTED BY FWC AND LWRG
THICKNESS ON NGM.

ALY...JUST GLANCED AT WRKZFP AND APPRS FINE.

XTND...WRM WX AND PCPN OVR PAST FEW DAYS HAS "DEVOURED" SNOWPACK
ACRS THE NORTH CNTRY VLYS AND IS "RIPENING" PACK IN HIER ELEVATIONS.
MORE RAIN AND ABV FRZG TMPS (ALTHOUGH NOT TOO WRM FOR TREMENDOUS
SNOWMELT) CUD SPELL PRBLMS LATE WEEK.  ALRDY...RVR LVLS WITNESSING
SGNFCT RISES.  I/LL REVIEW MORE AND PSBLY SEND FLD PTNL LTR IN
SHIFT.

SLW





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