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378
FPUS51 KBTV 230720
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 1998

VTZ001-005-009-231900-
GRAND ISLE-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...WINOOSKI...
VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 1998

.TODAY...SOME FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.
SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG.  MUGGY.  LOW IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.  CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY
SUNNY.  A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ002>004-006>008-010-231900-
FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 1998

.TODAY...SOME FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...WARM AND
HUMID.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 80 TO 85.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG.  MUGGY.  LOW 60 TO 65.  LIGHT WIND.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY
SUNNY.  A CHANCE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH LOWER 80S.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ011>014-231900-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 1998

.TODAY...SOME FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...VERY WARM
AND HUMID.  A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 80 TO 85.
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG.  MUGGY.  LOW 60 TO 65.  LIGHT WIND.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EARLY.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY
SUNNY.  A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




.



933
FPUS03 KBTV 230638
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 1998

PRELIMINARY WRKZFP RCVD...ONLY SUGGESTION IS TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR
ADRNDCKS WED.

IT APRS ACTIVE PATTERN WL CONT DURG THIS FCST PD AS WRM MOIST AMS
RMNS ENTRENCHED ACRS FA WITH SERIES OF TROFS TO CONTEND WITH TO ACT
AS TRIGGER.

SOME DRIER AIR ARND 850 MB TDA...BUT BL/SFC DWPTS TO RMN HI.  THIS
COUPLED WITH TMPS IN 80S WL RSLT IN UNSTAB ATMOS AGN TAFTN.  CAPES
NOT FCST AS HI AS YDA DUE TO MORE SHLW NATURE OF MSTR...BUT STILL
ARND 600-1000 J/KG PER ETA WHICH HAS DONE A RESPECTABLE JOB LAST FEW
DAYS.  EVIDENCE OF A SFC TROF ACRS RGN WL ACT AS FOCUS FOR CNVCTN
AND SO XPCT SCT TSTMS TAFTN.  LOCN OF THTE RDG SUGGESTS GREATEST
CVRG ACRS ERN/S ZNS WHERE HIR POPS WARRANTED.  MID LVL FLOW ARND 15-
25 KTS SO ANY TSTMS SHD MOV ALG REDUCING THREAT FOR HVY RAFL AMTS.

TNGT...CAPES STILL RTHR HI WITH ARND 1000 J/KG N ZNS...SFC PATTERN
MAINTAINS TROFINESS ACRS RGN AND UPR JET MAX MOVG THRU FA SO CONT
THREAT OF TSTMS TNGT...AT LEAST THRU FIRST HLF TNGT.  AREAS OF FOG
LT TNGT.

WED...NGM/ETA DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTBY.  DIFFERENCE LIES IN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH NGM BRINGG FA MCH COOLER/DRIER AIR THAN
ETA.  TUF CALL FOR WED...BUT IT APRS S/WV WHICH IS PROGGED TO CLIP N
ZNS IS NOT STG ENUF TO ALLOW FOR AN APPECIABLE AMS CHG SO RIGHT NOW
AM LEANING TWD ETA SOLN.

ETA FCSTG IMPRESSV INSTBY AXIS ACRS FA WITH CAPES 1500+ OVR MCH OF
RGN.  WELL PRONOUNCED THTE RDG AXIS AND SFC TROF SUGGESTS MORE TSTMS
LKLY FOR WED.  LOCN OF INSTBY AXIS/THTE RDG FVRS RGN FM ADRNDCKS
EWD...LESS CHC ST LAW VLY WHICH APRS WEST OF MAIN AXIS.  IF ETA
CORRECT NGM POPS MCH TOO LOW FOR WED...WUD RAISE POPS TO 40%
ADRNDCKS EWD.  IF HI CAPES REALIZED...SVR WX PSBL.

FWC TMPS LOOK RSNBL TDA/TNGT...BUT CUD BE SVRL DGRS TOO COOL WED IF
ETA IS CORRECT WHICH IS SUGGESTING MID/UPR 80S AGN.  WUD PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVE AND RAISE TMPS A FEW DGRS FOR WED AS LTR SHFTS CAN INCR
FTHR IF NECESSARY.

KJC


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The weather observed at  (K1V4) at 09:48 AM GMT was:
The skies were unobserved.
  Temperature: 66F ( 19C)  Dewpoint:  63F ( 17C)  Relative Humidity:  88%
  Winds from the N  (010 degs) at  2 mph.
  Altimeter:29.93 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was ***** miles.

The weather observed at BURLINGTON (KBTV) at 09:54 AM GMT was:
  The skies were clear.
  The weather reported was fog.
  Temperature: 70F ( 21C)  Dewpoint:  68F ( 20C)  Relative Humidity:  94%
  Winds from the SW (210 degs) at  9 mph.
  Pressure: 1016.0 millibars.  Altimeter:30.01 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 3 miles.

The weather observed at MONTPELIER (KMPV) at 09:53 AM GMT was:
  The skies were clear.
  The weather reported was fog.
  Temperature: 64F ( 18C)  Dewpoint:  63F ( 17C)  Relative Humidity:  96%
  Winds from the CLM(CLM degs) at  0 mph.
  Pressure: 1018.0 millibars.  Altimeter:30.08 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was .5 miles.
  There was 0.01 inches of precipitation in the past 6 hours.

The weather observed at  (KMVL) at 09:54 AM GMT was:
The skies were unobserved.
  The weather reported was fog.
  Temperature: 64F ( 18C)  Dewpoint:  64F ( 18C)  Relative Humidity: 100%
  Winds from the CLM(CLM degs) at  0 mph.
  Pressure: 1017.0 millibars.  Altimeter:30.04 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 0 miles.

The weather observed at RUTLAND (KRUT) at 09:56 AM GMT was:
  The skies were mostly clear.
  Temperature: 66F ( 19C)  Dewpoint:  64F ( 18C)  Relative Humidity:  94%
  Winds from the SSE(160 degs) at  5 mph.
  Altimeter:30.04 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 5 miles.

The weather observed at SPRINGFIELD (KVSF) at 09:54 AM GMT was:
  The skies were cloudy.
  The weather reported was fog.
  Temperature: 65F ( 18C)  Dewpoint:  64F ( 18C)  Relative Humidity:  97%
  Winds from the SE (150 degs) at  5 mph.
  Pressure: 1018.2 millibars.  Altimeter:30.08 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 2.5 miles.
.