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157
FPUS51 KBTV 291005 AMD
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

VTZ001-002-005-009-011-012-292200-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...
WINOOSKI...VERGENNES...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TODAY...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  HIGHS 75 TO 80.  SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HIGHS 75 TO 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-292200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TODAY...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  HIGHS 70 TO 75.  SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS 60 TO 65. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 90
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ013-014-292200-
BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

.TODAY...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HIGHS NEAR 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

$$


QUINLAN/CHIARAMONTE/SCHIESSER



.



198
FPUS03 KBTV 290751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

COORD WITH ALB.  SVRL PROBLEMS TO CONTEND WITH THIS FCST
PD...INCLUDING THREAT OF SVR WX LTR TDY & POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH
FLOODING...ESP TUES.  FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

CLOUDS INCRG ACRS FA ATTM AS WRMFNT APRCHS FROM ERN GRTLKS.  PCPN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RATHER SPARSE RIGHT NOW...WITH SCT SHWRS AND
ISOLD TSTRMS OVR WRN NY & SRN ONT.  XPC THIS TO BE OUR WX THIS AM.

DEBATABLE IF MUCH OF FA WL ACTUALLY GET INTO WRM SECTOR THIS
PM/EVEN...AS CDFNT NOW RACING ACRS CNTRL GRTLKS BCMS OCLDD.  THIS WL
LARGELY DETERMINE HOW UNSTABLE ATMOS GETS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
SEVERITY OF ANY CONVECTION WHICH DVLPS THIS PM/EVEN.  MID LVL
WESTERLIES INCR TO 30-40 KTS ALG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND FVRBL
WBZERO SO THAT IF ATMOS DESTABILIZES AS ETA SUGGESTS...THERE IS CHC
FOR STG WNDS AND HAIL WITH ANY TSTRMS...WITH BEST CHC IN NW NY AND
SRN VT.

NEXT CONSIDERATION IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  ATMOS NOT AS MOIST
WITH THIS EVENT AS IT WAS LAST WEEK WHEN PW'S CLIMBED TO ARND 1.75"
AND SFC DWPTS WERE ARND 70.  THIS TIME...XPC PW'S ARND 1.25" AND
DWPTS IN MID 60S.  WITH GROUND COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PCPN WL POSE A PROBLEM.
THIS PROBLEM WL PEAK ON TUE AS UPR LVL TROF MOVS ACRS RGN AND PCPN
THAT DVLPS WL BE SLOW MOVG.

FWC TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.  POPS LOOK TOO LOW FOR TON.

RJS



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The weather observed at  (K1V4) at 09:48 AM GMT was:
The skies were unobserved.
  Temperature: 54F ( 12C)  Dewpoint:  50F ( 10C)  Relative Humidity:  88%
  Winds from the N  (010 degs) at  1 mph.
  Altimeter:29.86 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was ***** miles.

The weather observed at BURLINGTON (KBTV) at 09:54 AM GMT was:
  The skies were clear.
  Temperature: 61F ( 16C)  Dewpoint:  57F ( 14C)  Relative Humidity:  88%
  Winds from the SSW(200 degs) at  3 mph.
  Pressure: 1011.6 millibars.  Altimeter:29.88 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.

The weather observed at MONTPELIER (KMPV) at 09:53 AM GMT was:
  The skies were cloudy.
  Temperature: 54F ( 12C)  Dewpoint:  53F ( 12C)  Relative Humidity:  97%
  Winds from the E  (080 degs) at  5 mph.
  Pressure: 1014.8 millibars.  Altimeter:29.97 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.

The weather observed at  (KMVL) at 08:54 AM GMT was:
  The skies were clear.
  Temperature: 53F ( 12C)  Dewpoint:  52F ( 11C)  Relative Humidity:  96%
  Winds from the CLM(CLM degs) at  0 mph.
  Pressure: 1014.1 millibars.  Altimeter:29.95 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.

The weather observed at RUTLAND (KRUT) at 09:55 AM GMT was:
  The skies were clear.
  Temperature: 61F ( 16C)  Dewpoint:  57F ( 14C)  Relative Humidity:  88%
  Winds from the S  (180 degs) at  6 mph.
  Altimeter:29.92 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.

The weather observed at SPRINGFIELD (KVSF) at 08:54 AM GMT was:
  The skies were cloudy.
  Temperature: 63F ( 17C)  Dewpoint:  61F ( 16C)  Relative Humidity:  93%
  Winds from the CLM(CLM degs) at  0 mph.
  Pressure: 1014.7 millibars.  Altimeter:29.97 inches of mercury.
  The prevailing visibility was 10 miles.
.