Subject: SSI Update: New UN Population Projections
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*************** EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ***************

This Information Update reviews the highlights of the 1998
revision of the United Nations world population estimates
and projections, which were released today, October 28.
These highlights include:
* World population by 2050 is expected to be in the range of
7.3 to 10.7 billion, revising the earlier estimate downwards
somewhat.
* The global average fertility rate is now 2.7 births per
woman, compared with 5.0 in the early 1950s.
* The 1998 Revision demonstrates the devastating mortality
toll from HIV/AIDS -- in the 29 most-affected African
countries, average life expectancy has dropped by 7 years as
a result of the disease. Even so, Africa's population,
according to the medium variant projection, will more than
double in the next 50 years.
* Under the same projection, the population of the less
developed regions will increase by 64 percent by 2050, but
the population of the developed countries is expected to
peak at 1.6 billion in 2020 and gradually decline
thereafter. Notably, however, the US population is projected
to continue to grow through 2050 and beyond.

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An Information Update produced by the Union of Concerned
Scientists
October 1998