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999
FPUS51 KBTV 141057 AMD
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

VTZ003-004-006>008-142200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR
A DUSTING TO AN INCH. CONTINUED EXTREMELY COLD. HIGHS 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. 5 TO 10 INCHES OVERNIGHT. LOWS NEAR ZERO. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SNOW OR SLEET. HIGHS 20 TO 25. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ001-002-005-009-142200-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...
WINOOSKI...VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR
A DUSTING TO AN INCH. CONTINUED EXTREMELY COLD. HIGHS ONLY ZERO TO 5.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. 5 TO 10 INCHES OVERNIGHT. LOWS ZERO TO 5. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MORE SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ010>012-142200-
ORANGE-RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR SEVERAL INCHES. CONTINUED EXTREMELY COLD. HIGHS NEAR 10.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. 5 TO 10 INCHES OVERNIGHT. LOWS NEAR 10. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SNOW OR SLEET. HIGHS IN THE 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ013-014-142200-
UPDATED
BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM...
...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTREMELY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE BY EVENING. CONTINUED EXTREMELY COLD. HIGHS NEAR 10.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. LOOK FOR ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES. LOWS NEAR 10. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SNOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

$$





                          National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS71 KALY 140942
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

.DISC...
AS USUAL THREE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THREE VARIATIONS ON A THEME. ALL
AGREE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND ITS TIMING BEING THE CRITICAL
FACTOR. HAVE COOR WITH BGM BTV BOX. GENERALLY FOLLOWED AVN TEMP
REGIME AND ITS TIMING. EXPECTING NERN THIRD NY TO STAY ALL SNOW AND
LOOKING FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
ELSEWHERE. CHMPLN VLY IS ON THE EDGE AND FOR NOW LEFT IT IN THE ALL
SNOW CAT. SERN NY AND NW CT MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN FRI AFTN. VERY
COLD THIS MRNG. EXPECTING WINDS TO CONT TO SLACKEN AND WIND CHILL
TEMPS BEING MENTIONED IN ALBWSWALB AND ALBSPSBTV. ALL WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. ZONES ALREADY ISSUED.

.ALB...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
       NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-MAZ001-VTZ013-014-
       NYZ063>066-CTZ001

       WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ026>031-
       034-035-VTZ001>012

GERWITZ


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

...WNTR STM WRNGS FOR TNGT/FRI TO BE HOISTED...

ANOTHER WINTER STORM TNGT/FRI...BONE-CHILLING/TEETH RATTLING COLD
TDY (ESP THIS MRNG)...SVRL INCHES OF SNOW YDY AND LAST WKNDS STORM.
WINTER HAS ARRIVED...ANY QUESTIONS?!  HWVR...THIS CUD BE THE "BIG
ONE" OF THE YOUNG WINTER SEASON.

ALTHOUGH MDLS DIFFER IN MANY RESPECTS...ALL SCENARIOS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POISED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TDY
THRU FRIDAY. ALL MDL QPF SHWS WELL ABV WNTR STM WRNG CRITERIA...
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BUT EVEN FAST ETA BRGS INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW BY 00Z FRI...SO WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/FRI FOR ENTIRE FA.

CRNT (07Z): STG ARCTIC HIGH (1050MB) WITH TMPS COLDER THAN -40F
UNDERNEATH HIGH. HERE IN N CNTRY...TMPS RANGE -5 TO -10F IN SRN VT
WITH -15 TO -25F IN NRN SECTIONS...BRRRR!!!!

SHORT TERM: ARCTIC HIGH SLWLY SLIDES E ACRS QUEBEC BUT SFC FLOW STL
NE/N ACRS FA WITH INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS FM APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...FEEL FWC/FAN TMPS A BIT ON MILD SIDE (IF YOU CAN CALL IT
THAT) BUT CRNT FCST ALRDY HAS GOOD HNDL ON THIS AND ACCPT PRVS FCST
TMPS.

DEEPENING MS RVR VLY LW TROF AS WELL AS SRN JET PROVIDING MOISTURE
STREAM INTO NE CORRIDOR ENTRENCHED BY STG ARCTIC HIGH SPELLS
TREMENDOUS OVERRUNNING FOR N CNTRY..."BOOM" OUR MORE EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCER.

AGAIN...TIMING AND WARMING ALOFT THE KEY TO FCST WITH AVN SPLITTING
THE UPRIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH NRN STREAM S/W DVLPS NEG TILT ORIENTATION...
NXT UPSTREAM S/W AND STG JET SHLD PREVENT MUCH AMPLITUDE...THUS FEEL
SYSTEM SHLD BE PROGRESSIVE. AVN APPEARS GOOD COMPROMISE AND QUICK
LOOK AT NMC/S 96/98F WUD CONCUR.

GIVEN AVN TIMING AND CRNT OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS SE NT/SNE/PA WUD
XPCT -SN LKLY IN SRN FA THIS AFTN WITH GOOD CHC (POPS 50) FOR NRN
FA.

SNOW...HVY AT TIMES ACROSS FA TNGT. ETA QUICK MVMNT DELIVERS 0C H8
ISOTHERM ACRS CENTRAL FA BY 12Z FRI...OTHER MDLS ALG VT/MA BDR.
ALTHOUGH COLDEST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF SEASON...RATHER SHALLOW AS H8
TMPS ONLY -15 TO -20C ACRS CNDN BDR. LAST WKNDS EVENT SAW DEEPER
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THUS TOUGHER PENETRATION INTO NRN FA WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ACRS SRN CT RVR VLY. ALTHOUGH SHALLOWER AIRMASS...DEMARCATION
LINE CUD BE SMLR AS STM TRACK LKLY FURTHER E...SO ANY MIXED OR
CHGOVR WUD BE SHORT-LIVED AND LKLY NOT UNTIL AFT DAYBRK FRI.

SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY FRI MRNG?!  QPF BLEND DELIVERS APPRX 0.5 WTR
EQUIV TO FA BY 12Z FRI.  THU NGT TMPS IN SINGLE DIGITS BRINGS
"FLUFF" FACTOR INTO PLAY.  PLAYING CONSERVATIVELY...USING 0.35-0.5
QPF WUD YIELD 5-8 (10?)INCHES BY 12Z FRI ACRS MUCH OF FA. HPC QPF
PRODUCTS AGREE.

FRI...SOME WRMR AIR TRIES TO OVERRIDE COLD DOME WITH SOME SLEET PSBL
AT TIMES FM CHMPL VLY E WITH A PSBL CHGOVR TO SLEET/FRZG RAIN FOR
ORANGE/WINDSOR/RUTLAND CTYS. THIS WL HOLD DOWN SOME SNOWFALL AMTS
DRG FRIDAY BUT STL A PRIMARILY HVY SNOW EVENT.

SIGNIFICANT ADDTL ACCUM OF SNOW PSBL DRG FRIDAY WITH AMTS DEPENDENT
ON AMT OF MIXING (IF ANY) TO OCCUR. CONSIDERING THIS IS 3RD PERIOD
AND MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF FCST...WL HOLD OFF ON STORM TOTAL
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.

SLW



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 140255
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST WED JAN 13 1999

.DISC...THANKS TO BGM/BTV/OKX FOR COOR.

.SHORT TERM...SFC FNT DWN ACRS DELMARVA AT 02Z WITH MSTR STL RIDING E
WELL N OF FNT. NRN EDGE OF PCPN HAS SHWN LTL IF ANY SHIFT S AND AS A
RSLT SNW WL CONT FOR MCH OF THE NIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES. THUS
HAV HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
BY DAYBREAK AND 7 INCHES OR MORE BY EVENING. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF PCPN
TYPE DURG THIRD AND FRTH PDS OF FCST WL JST HNDL WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY. WL ALSO ADD CHC POPS TO ZONES IMMEDIATELY N
OF THIS AREA TNGHT.

AS FOR WND CHILLS...THEY CONT IN ADVISORY TO WRNG CRITERIA ACRS MCH
OF FA AND WITH STG PRES GRAD RMNG IN PLC OVRNGHT WL ONLY XPCT A GRDL
WKNG OF WNDS. SOME OF THE LWR WIND CHILL VALUES THIS EVNG INCLUDE -50
AT KGTB...-44 AT KALY...-40 AT KALB...-32 AT KGFL. WL THUS LEAVE
WRNGS/ADVISORIES UP OVRNGHT.

NO CHNGS TO SCND THRU FRTH PDS IN RNDR OF ZONES XCPT HAV ADDED SOM
PSBL ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENG TO AREAS WHERE WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ON THURSDAY.

.ALB...WIND CHILL WARNING TONIGHT NYZ032-033
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-VTZ013-
       014-MAZ001
       WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ063>066-CTZ001
       WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ032-033-038>043
       -047>054-058>061-MAZ001-VTZ013-014
       WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ026>031-
       034-035-VTZ001>012

QUINLAN


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140214
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
915 PM EST WED JAN 13 1999

PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE HAS GOOD HANDLE ON OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.  WNDS
MOSTLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...SO REALLY DON'T SEE A NEED TO PUT UP
WND CHILL ADVISORY.  A FEW LOCATIONS AT CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHORT
TERM FOERCAST HAS THIS COVERED.  MODELS SHOW TEMP INVERSION WL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WL ALSO PREVENT ANY STRONGER WNDS FROM
MIXING DOWN TO SFC.  THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS BAND OF MID CLDS MOVG
ACROSS SRN VT.  MAY NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS A TAD HERE AS KDDH AND
KVSF STILL ABOVE ZERO ATTM...AND MAY WANT TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
OR VARIABLE CLDS OVR VT ZONES 11 AND 12.

NO CHGS TO REMAINDER OF FCST ATTM.

WGH


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 132331 AMD
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 PM EST WED JAN 13 1999

.DISC...QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES IN CWA. WL ISSUE WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR MCH OF CWA FOR THE OVRNGHT PD. WNDS WL ONLY
GRDLLY WKN OVRNGHT AND THIS CPLD WITH TMPS FALLING WELL BLW ZERO ACRS
MCH OF CWA WL PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO 25 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS WL BE ISSUED FOR THE WRN ADIRONDACKS WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE XCPT FOR FAR SE ZONES WHICH WL NOT RCH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.ALB...WIND CHILL WARNING TONIGHT NYZ032-033
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-VTZ013-
       014-MAZ001
       WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ032-033-038>043
       -047>054-058>061-063>066-MAZ001-CTZ001-VTZ013-014
       WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NYZ026>031-
       034-035-VTZ001>012

QUINLAN


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 132010
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EST WED JAN 13 1999

.DISC...
SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL PCPN SRN ADIRONDACKS/MID HUDSON VLY/
LITCHFIELD CTY TO DIE AS RIPPLE PASSES OFFSHORE.
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON PUSHED BY ARCTIC HIGH.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MINUS 30S FAR N COUNTRY BY DAWN THUR.

LONGER TERM...COORDINATION...MONTREAL/BOX/BTV/OKX/BUF.
CONCENSUS AMOUNG E CST FCSTRS IS ETA WAY TOO FAST AND THUS
TOO COLD.  NGM TOO SLOW THUS TOO WARM SRN ZNS.  AVN BEST
BET BUT PROBABLY CUT OFF A BIT SOON.  MODELS DIVERGE SO
MUCH ON PTYPE/AMOUNT OVER THE FCST AREA THAT WIDE BASED
WINTER STORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED.  DID NOT GET CUTE WITH
TIMING OR PTYPE.  RATHER CERTAIN IF SNOW/OR SLEET/OR FREEZING
RAIN...IT ALL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.

.ALB...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NYZ026>031-034-035 VTZ001>012
WINTER STORM WATCH THUR-FRI NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061
063>066.

WILEY


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 131501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EST WED JAN 13 1999

ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF FA ATTM.  KTYX INDICATING PCPN
TAPERING OFF IN ST LWR VLY...AND STLT PICS SHOW DRIER AIR SURGING
INTO THIS RGN.  DRIER AIR WL CONTINUE ITS PUSH SOUTH THIS PM.  THIS
WL RESULT IN SNOW COMING TO AN END ACRS ALL OF NRN NY AND NW VT BY
MIDDAY...AND IN REMAINDER OF VT DURING EARLY PM WHERE AN ADDED 1-2
INCHES PSBL BEFORE ENDING.  THE BIG STORY FOR LATER TDY/TON WILL BE
THE FRIGID TEMPS.  XPC FALLING TEMPS THIS PM (DESPITE ARRIVAL OF
SOME SUN NRN AREAS).  XPC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ST LWR VLY...TO
ARN ZERO NRN CHMPLN VLY...INTO SINGLE NUMBERS NC//NE VT AND THRU
TEENS SC VT.  COLD WL BE COMPOUNDED BY N WNDS 10-20 MPH.

RJS



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [1]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


999
ASUS51 KALB 141102
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 14 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-141200-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     PTCLDY   -21  -29   65  N8      30.83R  WCI -40
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY   -21  -27   73  N5      30.73R  WCI -27
RUTLAND        CLOUDY   -15  -27   53  N3      30.68R
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A     -20  -26   73  CALM    30.75R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    -8  -19   58  N6      30.74R  WCI -17
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY   -30   MM   MM  CALM    30.79R
BENNINGTON     FLURRIES  -7  -14   71  NW3     30.62R

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                     5:00PM, Wednesday January 13, 1999
                      STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Joe Veres_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


              _WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY


   Tonight: Be extra careful if heading out tonight as temperatures will
   be at dangerously cold readings. Under mostly clear skies, lows will
   fall to near negative 30 in elevated valley towns such as Glover,
   while Lyndonville will see readings close to negative 20. Winds will
   be light.

   Thursday: After a frigid night, temperatures during Thursday will find
   it hard to climb to zero for most of the Northeast Kingdom. Clouds
   will be on the increase throughout the day and snow is expected by
   late afternoon. The snow is expected to intensify at night, so any
   errands should be taken care of during the afternoon. Along with the
   cold temperatures, we can expect windchills around negative 20 as
   winds will be out of the northeast at 5-15 MPH.

   Thursday Night: More snow is expected, and may become heavy at times.
   Travel will become very dangerous. Snowfall accumulations could very
   well exceed 6 inches. Temperatures will remain very cold with lows
   staying around zero.

   Friday: More snow is in the forecast. Traveling will still be tricky,
   especially if you are heading towards the south, where sleet and
   freezing rain could mix in with the snow. Temperatures will be rising
   into the low and mid 20's during the afternoon. The snow should begin
   to taper off during the evening hours.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: There may be a lingering snow shower, especially during the
   morning. Afternoon highs will warm up into the low and mid 30's with
   overnight lows in the teens.

   Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds with the possibility of some flurries.
   Temperatures will once again be above normal with highs in the mid
   30's and lows in the upper teens.

   Monday: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures once again in the mid
   30's for highs and upper teens for lows.

                            Forecast Discussion


   We're in store for the coldest temperatures of the season as we head
   into the overnight hours. A strong high pressure is moving into the
   region from Ontario. With it, there will be clear skies, calm winds,
   and brutally cold temperatures. Some of the high valley areas could
   very well see temperatures in the negative 30's by tomorrow morning.
   Then we have to shift our attention to a storm system presently
   located in the Tennessee Valley. The National Weather Service has
   issued a Winter Storm Watch for us for Thursday Night and Friday. The
   low will head in our direction and and before all is said and done,
   could leave us with a significant amount of snow. The storm will bring
   in warm air aloft, which could briefly change the snow over to a
   period of sleet, especially to our south. The storm should move out of
   the region by the weekend just in time to head to the slopes and enjoy
   the fresh powder along with milder temperatures.