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999
FPUS51 KBTV 210758
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

VTZ013-014-211900-
BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

.TODAY...MORNING SUNSHINE...THEN THICKENING CLOUDS. HIGHS 55 TO 60.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70
PERCENT.

$$

VTZ001-002-005-009-211900-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...
WINOOSKI...VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY.  BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE.  HIGH IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW AROUND 40.  SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HIGH 55 TO 60.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-211900-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY.  HIGH AROUND 60.  LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW AROUND 40.  LIGHT WIND.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HIGH IN THE MID
50S.

$$

VTZ011-012-211900-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY.  BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH AROUND 60.
LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER
40S.  LIGHT WIND.  CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY.  HIGH 55 TO 60.  CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.

$$

SNYDER / WGH




                          National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 210744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

HI CLDS ALREADY RACING EASTWARD FROM GTLKS ATTM...SO PTLY SUNNY
FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD...XCP SKIES WILL BCM MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTN OVER WRN ZONES.  TONIGHT SKIES WILL CLOUD UP...WITH A CHC OF
RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
AREA OF RAIN OVER MID MS VLY AND WRN OH VLY BEING TAKEN SOUITH
OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHC OF RAIN COMING FROM MOISTIRE
OVER THE UPPER GRTLKS ATTM.  NGM MOS POPS HAVE BACKED OFF
TO CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THIS RUN...AND AVN FAN POPS EVEN LOWER.
ETA BLDS UPR RDG IN THE EAST MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND BRINGS
IN PRECIP TO FCST AREA THU AFTN NORTH OF WARM FRONT.  AGREE WITH
NCEP DISCUSSION THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.   HAVE FOLLOWED AVN/NGM SOLN
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

NGM MOS AND AVN FAN TEMPS CLOSE AND HAVE FOLLOWED THRU THE PERIOD.
HAVE GONE WITH NGM POPS THRU THE PERIOD.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH




NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
910 PM EDT TUE APR 20 1999

KCXX/KTYX RADARS INDICATE THAT SHWR ACTIVITY IS ON THE DECREASE ACRS
FA ATTM AS ATMOS BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVG INTO RGN WITH DEPARTURE
OF SHRTWV WHICH IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

WL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHWRS WITH UPDATED ZFP.  ANY SHWRS WHICH
LINGER SHORTLY BEYOND ZFP ISSUANCE TIME CAN BE HANDLED WITH STF.

FOR OVRNGT...WL GO WITH FCST OF P/C OR DECREASING CLDS.  WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AND CALM AIR...WL INTRODUCE MENTION OF PTCHY FOG
LATE TONITE FOR MTN ZONES AND FOR SC VT (LOCATIONS WHERE SHWRS WERE
MOST NUMEROUS TDY).

HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMNTS TO OVRNGT MINS.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS




NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 201758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EDT TUE APR 20 1999

KCXX WSR-88D OUT FOR MAINTENANCE...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING A BIT LONGER THAN YESTERDAY TO GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY DUE TO VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEING FARTHER FROM THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAN YESTERDAY.  MORE
IMPRESSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT...BUT ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DARK AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING PUSH INTO THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIVE COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE SO WILL FORECAST
MIN TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER
30S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

WE BELIEVE THE NGM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS WARM ADVECTION AND
ACCELERATION OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE SLOWER
AVN/ETA IS PREFERRED.  FOLLOWING THIS THINKING...MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 60-65F
RANGE.  PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING SHOULD COVER ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT
FILTER IN LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A HEFTY SLUG OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A SYSTEM PULLING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.  AGAIN BELIEVE THE NGM TIMING IS TOO
RAPID... AND WILL THUS ONLY INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND GO WITH LIKELY WORDING FOR THURSDAY IN ALL ZONES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
DON'T SEE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WORTH MENTIONING IN ANY OF THE
PERIODS.

3 TO 5 DAY...PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY.  THE MRF/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SETTLE A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS BUT ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
SUNDAY.  HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN IN SUNDAY ZONES WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.




NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [1]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


999
ASUS51 KALB 211002
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 21 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-211100-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    36   33   89  E3      29.99R
MONTPELIER     FOG       30   30  100  CALM    30.01S  VSB 1/4
RUTLAND         N/A      32   30   92  SE8     29.98S  WCI 22
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      33   33  100  CALM    29.98R
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       31   31  100  CALM    30.00R  VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE    FOG       32   32  100  CALM    30.00R  VSB 1/4
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     29   27   92  CALM    30.00R

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                       11:00PM, Tuesday April 20,1999
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Adam Stampfl_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


   _
   Overnight: Clouds will begin to break-up as the night progresses. This
   means radiational cooling will occur and drop temperatures into the
   mid 20's in the hills and low 30's in the valleys.

   Wednesday: The day is going to start off on a sunny note, but high
   clouds will be on the increse from south to north. Temperatures will
   warm nicely into the low 60's. Winds will be light out of the north.

   Wednesday Night: Clouds will thicken gradually and rain will begin to
   breakout later in the overnight hours. Precipitation will be on the
   light side. Lows will stay on the mild side and in the upper 30's.

   Thursday: Not the best day to do yardwork, as rain showers will
   overspread the area off and on throughout the day. Temperatures will
   be on the sticky side reaching the 60 degree mark. Winds will be
   light.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: The clouds and showers will be exiting our region as the day
   unfolds. Lows in the 40's and highs in the upper 50's to low 60's.

   Saturday: A golden day to be outside and clean up the yard. We will
   have sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 50's and
   lows in the 30's.

   Sunday: Sunny skies giving way to increasing clouds. Highs in the 50's
   and lows in the 30's.

                            Forecast Discussion


   Over the last few days the weather pattern has resembled a summer like
   pattern. We have had nice sunny warm mornings giving way to developing
   clouds and showers in the afternoon. It is about time the snow has
   stopped falling from the sky! This will also be the feature for
   Wednesday with sunny skies in the morning and afternoon developing
   clouds. The only difference is the precip will hold off until the late
   night hours Wednesday. These showers will continue into Thursday as
   warm air advection will be moving into our area triggering off the
   precip. A low will be moving to our south as well on Thursday helping
   to extend the showers into Thursday evening. This unsettled weather
   will end just in time for the weekend as party cloudy skies will
   welcome us on Friday. Saturday is a day to enjoy with mostly sunny
   skies and warm conditions. Take advantage of the weekend as the
   beginning of next week will be on the rainy side again.

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