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999
FPUS51 KBTV 160710
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

VTZ013-014-161500-
BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
310 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TOWARD NOON.
HIGH 45 TO 50. WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN CLOUDY
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW 35 TO 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.$$
$$

VTZ001-002-005-009-161500-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...WINOOSKI...
VERGENNES
310 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

.TODAY...SOME MORNING SUN...OTHERWISE INCREASING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH 50 TO
55. WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT EAST. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH NEAR 50. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-161500-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
310 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

.TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE. HIGH AROUND 50. WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WIND. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
$$

VTZ011-012-161500-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
310 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

.TODAY...THICKENING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY LATE. HIGH 50 TO
55. WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70
PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LOW 35 TO 40. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH AROUND
50. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
$$




                          National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 160520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT FRI APR 16 1999

SOMEWHAT POWERFUL OHIO RVR VLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK ACRS THE CNTRY OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS WL
WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES TOWARD AND OVER FA THRU SAT.

THEREFORE...NO POWERFUL...BLOCKBLUSTER WX EVENT BUT SOME MOISTURE TO
DAMPEN IMMEDIATE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

CRNTLY: CLOSED LOW IN OH RVR VLY AND WEAK OFF-SHOT MVG WELL SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND HAS STRETCHED THE WAA/MOISTURE FIELDS WITH A SLGT
CONFLUENCE ZONE AND ONLY HI/MID CLDS ACRS FA. THIS HAS ALLOWED TMPS
TO DROP BLO FRZG IN MANY LOCALES ERLY THIS MRNG.

SHORT TERM: AS UPR LOW...PVA FIELD AND DVLPG WAA PTRN WL BRG
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS TDY. WSR-88D COMPOSITE RDR SHWS DECENT
NW-SE BAND ACRS OH/PA BUT HARDLY ANY ACTVTY FM KCTP EASTWARD.
THIS IS IN RELATIONSHIP TO BEST OF ALL INGREDIENTS MENTIONED ABV
THAT SHLD BE LOCATED IN THE CAP DIST VCNTY ARD 00Z SAT.

SAT: VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES ACRS/E OF FA DRG DAY...THUS
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THAN PERIODS OF LGT RAIN XPCTD TNGT. FALLING
HGTS AND COLD H8 TMPS WL LKLY MEAN -SHSN IN HIER ELEVATIONS BUT BLYR
TMPS ON ALL MDLS STL SUGGEST PRIMARILY RAIN...ESP DRG DAYTIME WITH
SOME RADIATIVE INFLUENCES FM SPRING SUN.

XTND: UPR LVL SUPPORT SLIDES E BUT LW TROF AXIS REMAINS W OF FA THRU
ERLY WEEK...THUS THREAT OF -SHRA WL CONT BUT COLD POOL ALOFT WL
MODIFY AND -SHSN THREAT LKLY TO MINIMIZE.

FIRST DRAFT WL BE AVBL ARD 2AM UNDER ADMBTV.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 160136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 PM EDT THU APR 15 1999

SATL IMAGERY SHOWS RMNTS OF UPR LO OVR NS EXITING THE RGN. OTRW
ANIMATED SATL IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS MID/HI CLDS SPRDG NNE ACRS NY
AND INTO VT ATTM. MODELS SIMILIAR IN MOVG THESE CLDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE NIGHT AND FRI MRNG. ATTM LDG EDG OF PCPN FITS 70 PCT RH
PATTERN NW-SE ACRS PA. THIS PCPN WL SPRD NE INTO SRN VT DURG FRI
MRNG RCHG NRN VT BY MID AFTN FINALLY RCHG NE VT BY EVENING.

PBLM WL BE TYPE OF PCPN IN HIER ELEVATIONS IN NE VT AND ADIRONDACK
ZONES. MODELS INDC COOLING ASOCD WITH UPR LVL LO APRCHNG RGN. ATTM WL
OPT FOR RN SHWRS OR MIXED RN AND SNO SHWRS IN ABV MENTIONED AREAS
WITH GNRLY RN SHWRS ELSW.

MODELS ORGANIZE SFC SYS OFF THE NJ CST AND MOV IT OUT TO SEA S OF
NEW ENG DURG FRI/FRI NGT. PRIMARY SFC LO MEANDERS ARND THE GRTLKS
RGN FRI/FRI NGT WITH THE NGM THE FASTER THAN THE ETA. AVN MOVS THIS
SYS ACRS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENG SAT/SUN. UPR LO MOVS ACRS THE RGN
SUN. RAIN SHWRS OR RAIN/SNO SHWRS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION SATURDAY.

AS NOTED BY PREV FCSTR...FAN AND FWC POPS CLOSE AND SEE NO
DISAGREEMENT. GUIDANCE TEMPS LK REASONABLE WITH THIS TYPE
PATTERN BUT AGREE WITH COOLER TEMPS ON SAT WITH PCPN/CLD COVER.


.BTV...NONE.

SFH


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 151906
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 PM EDT THU APR 15 1999

ENJOY THE THURSDAY AFTN SUN WHILE YOU CAN...AS WE WILL BE GOING
INTO ANOTHER PROLONGED FUNK OF CLOUDY DREARY WEATHER.  TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME WX IN THE NORTHEAST.  MODELS SIMILIAR IN BRING PRECIP INTO
FCST AREA FRI AFTN...WITH ETA THE FASTEST...AND NGM THE SLOWEST.
WENT WITH COMPROMISE AVN SOLN.  HAVE BROUGHT A CHC OF RAIN LATE INTO
CHAMPLAIN VLY ZONES LATE FRI...AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP
OVER NE KINGDOM OF VT UNTIL FRI NIGHT.  HAVE MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW
OVER THE NE KINGDOM OF VT AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...AS UPR LOW MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO VLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT...AND WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MTS.

AVN FAN AND NGM MOS POPS FAIRLY CLOSE AND FOLLOWED.  FOLLOWED NGM
MOS TEMPS...XCP WENT COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON SAT THAN GUIDANCE...AS
CLD COVER AND COLD UPR LOW ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPS
AT SFC.

ON EXTENDED FCST...CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 151425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT THU APR 15 1999

PERSISTENT UPR LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO KEEP CLDS
IN ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VLY...AFTER TEASING US WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AT BTV.  HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ACROSS NE KINGDOM OF VT FOR THIS AFTN...AND HAVE ALSO
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...AS VORT MAX SEEN ON
EARLY MORNING VIS SAT PIX OVER QUEBEC MOVES S INTO ME THIS AFTN. ALSO
JUST NE OF FCST AREA...YSC REPORTING SOME LT SNOW THIS MORNING. HAVE
ALSO GONE WITH A LGT WND ACROSS VT AND CHAMPLAIN VLY ZONES FOR THIS
AFTN.

BASED ON SAT LOOP WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTN ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VLY.

NO OTHER CHGS TO REMAINDER OF FCST ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [1]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

lynx: Can't access start file http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/obs/vermont.txt

lynx: Can't access start file http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/404/index.html

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