717 FPUS51 KBTV 220813 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-221500- ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH... ST. ALBANS 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 .TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW 45 TO 50. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE 30S. HIGH NEAR 40. .MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW AROUND 30. HIGH NEAR 40. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S. $$ VTZ003-004-006>008-010-221500- CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 .TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH IN THE 50S. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW 45 TO 50. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE 30S. HIGH NEAR 40. .MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW 25 TO 30. HIGH IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S. $$ VTZ011-012-221500- RUTLAND-WINDSOR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 .TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW NEAR 50. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE 30S. HIGH 40 TO 45. .MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW 25 TO 30. HIGH NEAR 40. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S. $$ NYZ026-027-221500- N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 .TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 50S. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN. LOW IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH... SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW AROUND 30. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. LOW 25 TO 30. HIGHS AROUND 40. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S. $$ NYZ029>031-034-221500- S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID 400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 .TODAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...RAIN. LOW IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH... SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW AROUND 30. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. LOW 20 TO 25. HIGHS IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 20. HIGH 35 TO 40. $$ EVENSON National Weather Service Click for - [1]Internet problems during major weather? EMWIN live weather broadcast information available here. _________________________________________________________________ FXUS61 KBTV 220717 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DIGGING NATURE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST OF THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES LOOKS REAL GOOD AND WILL ADD JUST A CHANCE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. REMAINDER OF VERMONT SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE DAY. AXIS OF WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DESPITE THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. APPROACHING SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TODAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...BEST SEEN IN THE 500-300 MB ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELD...WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. RESULTING SURFACE LOW/IPV MAX TO THEN TRACK NORTHWARD SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LAID THE GROUNDWORK NICELY WITH AT LEAST LIKELY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL UP THAT TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS. COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND AND IS ACTUALLY MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE MAKING THE TURN TO THE EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE FALLING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR ANY CHANGEOVER OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME MORE LIKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PERIODS...SO WILL NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES HERE. WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV EVENSON .BTV...NONE. _________________________________________________________________ FXUS61 KBTV 220134 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 930 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999 WL MAKE SOME DNWRD ADJ TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT RDGS AND SKY CVR. HV CHGD MOCLR TO PTCLDY ACRS NRN ZNS FOR CI/AC MVG INTO FA FM ONT. NO OTHR CHGS ATTM. .BTV...NONE. MCGILL _________________________________________________________________ FXUS61 KBTV 211931 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999 FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SYNC THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER AND SLOWER-MOVING UPPER TROUGH. 12 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION AND IS PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM THE MID 20S IN THE DACKS TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. BECOMING BREEZY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH A WARM SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ALL ZONES. SURFACE GRADIENT TO BEGIN SLACKENING VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS COASTAL SURFACE CYCLONE GETS CRANKED UP. CATEGORICAL RAIN IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT IT'S STILL ANYONE'S GUESS HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL GET INTO VERMONT BY 12 UTC SATURDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO PORTLAND...HAVE DECIDED ON LIKELY POPS FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 40S. FOLLOWING THE ETA TREND INTO THE AVN ON SATURDAY WOULD YIELD CONTINUING SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS IN ALL ZONES FOR SATURDAY... SINCE THERE'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL SHOWERS ANYWHERE. AVN SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DROPPING ONLY AS LOW AS 2500 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE SNOW WORDING IN THE 4TH PERIOD IN ANY ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY 45 TO 50F...THEN STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 DAY...WILL ADD SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN ALL ZONES TO TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH FREEZING LEVELS FALLING TO THE SURFACE IN ALL LOCATIONS. THEN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN ALL MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE ZONES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UKMET/ECMWF INDICATING RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...IMPLYING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. THANKS WFOS PORTLAND...BUFFALO AND ALBANY FOR HELPFUL COORDINATION. ST. JEAN .BTV...NONE. _________________________________________________________________ This data is from the [2]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network) References 1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm 2. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html 911 ASUS51 KALB 221002 SWRVT VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999 CITY SKY/WX TEMP DEWPT RH WIND PRES REMARKS VTZ001>014-221100- .... VERMONT .... BURLINGTON PTCLDY 40 33 76 SE7 29.77F MONTPELIER PTCLDY 38 31 76 S10 29.85F RUTLAND N/A 39 32 76 SE13G17 29.82S ST JOHNSBURY N/A 29 28 96 CALM 29.85F SPRINGFIELD FOG 28 28 100 CALM 29.89F VSB 1/4 MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 30 28 92 CALM 29.83F BENNINGTON CLEAR 45 34 65 S8 29.80F .......... KEY .......... WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES HX - HEAT INDEX FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY $$ _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST 11:00 PM, Thursday October 21, 1999 STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jason Dollard_ _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont** ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_ _ Overnight: Skies will start off clear and calm, but some high clouds will move in late this evening out ahead of a warm front in the midwest. Lows will be in the mid to upper 20's with fog forming in the valleys and frost in the higher terrains of the Northeast Kingdom. Friday: Skies will be mostly sunny to start the day, but not for long as clouds will be continuing to move in and thicken out ahead of that warm front to our West. Highs will be in the low to mid 50's with winds out of the South at 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with the chance of rain showers after 2. Lows will be in the upper 30's to lower 40's with winds out of the Southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with rain showers throughout the day as a cold front movees into the Northeast. This front will bring cooler air into the region once it passes, so late Saturday the rain showers could turn into snow showers, especially in the high country. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40's right near 50 with lows in the upper 30's. Extended Forecast Sunday: Another cloudy day for the Northeast with more unsettled weather. We will see more rain and snow showers across the region, but they will be lighter than what we saw on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 30's to lower 40's with lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with the chance of light snow showers early, then skies start to clear out. Highs will be in the mid 30's with lows in the mid to upper 20's. Tuesday: Skies will be mostly sunny with some high clouds lingering around from yesterdays storm, but otherwise it will be a beautiful day across the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 40's with lows in the low to mid 20's. Forecast Discussion Clouds are slowly working their way into the Northeast Kingdom this evening out ahead of a warm front now over Iowa. We can expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20's this evening with some light fog forming in the valleys and frost forming in the higher elevations. Tommorow skies will continue to cloud up as that system moves into the region, and then things go downhill from there. Late Friday night, the rains will begin as our warm front moves in and we will see precipitation until late Sunday night. The heaviest rains will occur on Saturday as the trailing cold front moves into the area. Once this front moves through, we can expect for cooler Canadian air, and that rain could turn into snow showers late Saturday and into much of Sunday as temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. All should be over by late Sunday night though, and things will start to clear up for the start of next week. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html