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717
FPUS51 KBTV 220813
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-221500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS.  A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY.  BECOMING BREEZY WITH A HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  SOUTH
WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING.  LOW 45 TO 50.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S.  CHANCE OF RAIN
NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE
30S. HIGH NEAR 40.
.MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW AROUND 30. HIGH NEAR 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-221500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE 50S.  BECOMING BREEZY
WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING.  LOW 45 TO 50.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S.  CHANCE OF RAIN
NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE
30S. HIGH NEAR 40.
.MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.  LOW 25 TO 30. HIGH IN THE 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S.

$$

VTZ011-012-221500-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.  BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15
TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING.  LOW NEAR 50.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S.  CHANCE OF RAIN
NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE
30S. HIGH 40 TO 45.
.MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.  LOW 25 TO 30. HIGH NEAR 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S.

$$

NYZ026-027-221500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.  HIGH
IN THE MID 50S.  BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 15
TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN.  LOW IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH...
SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S.  CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW AROUND 30.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. LOW 25 TO 30.
HIGHS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 40S.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-221500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

.TODAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTH
WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN.  LOW IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH...
SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE.  CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW AROUND 30.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. LOW 20 TO 25.
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 20. HIGH 35 TO 40.

$$

EVENSON





                          National Weather Service
     Click for - [1]Internet problems during major weather? EMWIN live
               weather broadcast information available here.

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 220717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  DIGGING NATURE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION.  GOING FORECAST OF THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES LOOKS REAL GOOD AND WILL ADD JUST A CHANCE
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  REMAINDER OF VERMONT
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE DAY.  AXIS OF WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S DESPITE THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
TODAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...BEST SEEN IN THE 500-300 MB ISENTROPIC
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELD...WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW.  RESULTING SURFACE LOW/IPV MAX TO THEN TRACK NORTHWARD
SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD LAID THE GROUNDWORK NICELY WITH AT LEAST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  WILL UP THAT TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS.

COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND
AND IS ACTUALLY MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE MAKING THE TURN TO THE
EAST.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE
FALLING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  THUS IT WOULD APPEAR ANY CHANGEOVER OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME MORE LIKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
WELL COVERED FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PERIODS...SO WILL NOT
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES HERE.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 220134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999

WL MAKE SOME DNWRD ADJ TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT RDGS AND SKY CVR.
HV CHGD MOCLR TO PTCLDY ACRS NRN ZNS FOR CI/AC MVG INTO FA FM ONT.

NO OTHR CHGS ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

MCGILL





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 211931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SYNC THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS INTO
SATURDAY.  OVERALL HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND SLOWER-MOVING UPPER TROUGH.  12 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE
MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION AND IS PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES OCCURRING EARLY...THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE DACKS TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.  BECOMING BREEZY
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH A
WARM SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION.  MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ALL ZONES.

SURFACE GRADIENT TO BEGIN SLACKENING VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
COASTAL SURFACE CYCLONE GETS CRANKED UP.  CATEGORICAL RAIN IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT IT'S STILL ANYONE'S GUESS HOW FAR EAST THE
RAIN WILL GET INTO VERMONT BY 12 UTC SATURDAY.  AFTER COORDINATION
WITH WFO PORTLAND...HAVE DECIDED ON LIKELY POPS FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 40S.

FOLLOWING THE ETA TREND INTO THE AVN ON SATURDAY WOULD YIELD
CONTINUING SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS IN ALL ZONES FOR SATURDAY...
SINCE THERE'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL SHOWERS
ANYWHERE.  AVN SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DROPPING ONLY AS LOW AS 2500
FEET BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE SNOW WORDING
IN THE 4TH PERIOD IN ANY ZONES.  MAX TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY
45 TO 50F...THEN STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

3 TO 5 DAY...WILL ADD SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN ALL ZONES TO
TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH FREEZING LEVELS
FALLING TO THE SURFACE IN ALL LOCATIONS.  THEN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES IN ALL MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
ZONES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  UKMET/ECMWF INDICATING RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...IMPLYING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

THANKS WFOS PORTLAND...BUFFALO AND ALBANY FOR HELPFUL COORDINATION.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [2]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   2. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


911
ASUS51 KALB 221002
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-221100-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    40   33   76  SE7     29.77F
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    38   31   76  S10     29.85F
RUTLAND         N/A      39   32   76  SE13G17 29.82S
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      29   28   96  CALM    29.85F
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       28   28  100  CALM    29.89F  VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    30   28   92  CALM    29.83F
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     45   34   65  S8      29.80F

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                    11:00 PM, Thursday October 21, 1999
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jason Dollard_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


   _
   Overnight: Skies will start off clear and calm, but some high clouds
   will move in late this evening out ahead of a warm front in the
   midwest. Lows will be in the mid to upper 20's with fog forming in the
   valleys and frost in the higher terrains of the Northeast Kingdom.

   Friday: Skies will be mostly sunny to start the day, but not for long
   as clouds will be continuing to move in and thicken out ahead of that
   warm front to our West. Highs will be in the low to mid 50's with
   winds out of the South at 5 to 10 mph.

   Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with the chance of rain showers
   after 2. Lows will be in the upper 30's to lower 40's with winds out
   of the Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

   Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with rain showers throughout the day as
   a cold front movees into the Northeast. This front will bring cooler
   air into the region once it passes, so late Saturday the rain showers
   could turn into snow showers, especially in the high country. Highs
   will be in the mid to upper 40's right near 50 with lows in the upper
   30's.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: Another cloudy day for the Northeast with more unsettled
   weather. We will see more rain and snow showers across the region, but
   they will be lighter than what we saw on Saturday. Highs will be in
   the upper 30's to lower 40's with lows in the upper 20's to lower
   30's.

   Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with the chance of light snow showers
   early, then skies start to clear out. Highs will be in the mid 30's
   with lows in the mid to upper 20's.

   Tuesday: Skies will be mostly sunny with some high clouds lingering
   around from yesterdays storm, but otherwise it will be a beautiful day
   across the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 40's with lows in
   the low to mid 20's.

                            Forecast Discussion


   Clouds are slowly working their way into the Northeast Kingdom this
   evening out ahead of a warm front now over Iowa. We can expect
   temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20's this evening with some
   light fog forming in the valleys and frost forming in the higher
   elevations. Tommorow skies will continue to cloud up as that system
   moves into the region, and then things go downhill from there. Late
   Friday night, the rains will begin as our warm front moves in and we
   will see precipitation until late Sunday night. The heaviest rains
   will occur on Saturday as the trailing cold front moves into the area.
   Once this front moves through, we can expect for cooler Canadian air,
   and that rain could turn into snow showers late Saturday and into much
   of Sunday as temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. All
   should be over by late Sunday night though, and things will start to
   clear up for the start of next week.

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